Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends
Anton Kreitzer
YaBB God
Posts: 4,167
Political Matrix
E: 8.00, S: 3.11
|
 |
« on: May 18, 2015, 08:56:56 PM » |
|
Despite opinion polls and early returns showing a third term for the Hockey Government, election night 2014 proved to be quite different to the predictions - The Tories lost their vote lead to Natural Law, and finished on a mere 72 seats, a massive drop from the 106 Tories elected in 2011. Natural Law won 68 seats, an increase of 36 from 2011, Labor picked up two seats, Family First and Rural Voice made gains of three and seven respectively, while the hard-left Anticapitalist Alliance picked up a seat, and the centrist Democrats bombed to just one seat, leader Natasha Stott Despoja resigning as leader and MP not long afterwards. Kevin Rudd and Clive Palmer's respective new parties, Justice and Freedom, won singular seats each, and while both parties won Senators, aside from their leaders, they failed to make headway in the House.
Summary of 2014 election:
House of Representatives
Conservative – 72 (-34)
Natural Law – 68 (+36)
Labor – 28 (+2)
Rural Voice – 13 (+7)
Family First – 11 (+3)
Anticapitalist Alliance – 5 (+1)
Justice – 1 (+1)
Freedom – 1 (+1)
Democrats – 1 (-17)
Senate
2011: 12 Conservative, 8 Natural Law, 5 Democrats, 4 Labor, 4 Family First, 2 Rural Voice, 1 Anticapitalist Alliance
2014: 11 Natural Law, 9 Conservative, 5 Labor, 5 Rural Voice, 4 Family First, 2 Justice, 2 Freedom, 1 Democrats
Total: 21 Conservative, 19 Natural Law, 9 Labor, 8 Family First, 7 Rural Voice, 6 Democrats, 2 Anticapitalist Alliance, 2 Justice, 2 Freedom
Two-party preferred vote: 52.03-47.97
The first deadlocked Parliament since 1994 saw the Tories, Family First and Rural Voice hold a combined 96 seats, the same number as Natural Law and Labor. These figures increased to 97 a side, assuming Clive Palmer supported a Tory-led government, and Kevin Rudd a Natural Law-led government. With 101 seats required for a majority, and only the Anticapitalist Alliance able to provide either side a majority, which they would not, for obvious reasons, it seemed a minority government was the only way to avoid a second election. Going from the Senate results, the Tories, Rural Voice, Family First and the Freedom Party held a combined 38 seats, while Natural Law, Labor, the Democrats (if they were to support a Hanson-Young govermment) and Justice held a combined 36 seats, neither of which was a majority.
After negotiations went beyond the Christmas-New Year period, it was decided that the incumbent Government would continue in minority, given their upper hand in the Senate, and that some of the Anticapitalist Alliance MPs and Senators had poor attendance records, making a majority in Parliament just that little bit easier. Joe Hockey, however, would not lead this government - the Freedom Party stated that the election was a rejection of the Prime Minister, and they would not support the government in the Senate unless they changed leader. A snap leadership spill resulted in Julie Bishop elected the new Tory leader, and thus the 29th Prime Minister of Australia. Julia Gillard resigned as Labor leader, to be replaced by deputy leader Anthony Albanese. Hanson-Young also resigned as Natural Law leader, replaced by Scott Ludlam. A by-election in Natasha Stott Despoja’s old seat of Hawker, in South Australia, saw the Tories gain the seat, narrowly fending off a strong Natural Law challenge, boosting the government’s numbers in the House to 98.
Queensland’s Tory government led by Campbell Newman faced an election in early 2015, Newman lost his seat, and the Justice and Freedom parties shared the balance of power with Natural Law and Rural Voice. Eventually, a Tory-Rural Voice-Freedom government was cobbled together, although opinion of the state government and Freedom Party alike sank, following reports of federal Freedom MP and party leader Clive Palmer not attending parliamentary sittings. New South Wales’ Tory government had an easier re-election, despite several members caught out by the ICAC during the term. The centenary of the ANZACs landing at Gallipoli was commemorated on the 25th of April, 2015, to record turnouts at Dawn Services nationwide.
Dominating the Australian media in early 2015, however, was the execution of Bali Nine ringleaders Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran and preluding lead-up to the execution. Despite pleas from PM Julie Bishop, opposition leader Scott Ludlam, and most MPs and Senators, along with a significant portion of the Australian public, the executions went ahead on the 29th of April, 2015. A minority of Australians boycotted Bali, a popular tourist island in Indonesia, following the incident, and foreign aid to Indonesia was cut, which Indonesia agreed to. Domestically, budget time was looming, and given the shaky Parliament, would be very turbulent. How would it go? Only time would tell…
A note from AK:
Thank you all once again for participating in this election series . I couldn’t have done it without you all, you’ve all contributed greatly. It’s been a great deal of fun, and sometimes a bit tricky, but I’ve definitely enjoyed it all the way through. And now, a list of all the Prime Ministers in this series!
|
