Who beats Lincoln in 1860?

[sparkey]

On the surface, it looks like Lincoln won 1860 in a landslide, but suppose that one of the other 3 candidates beat him. Who was most likely to do so? Breckinridge was 2nd in the electoral vote; Douglas was 2nd in the popular vote; Bell was in the top 3 in electoral votes and a good compromise candidate if it went to the House.



Some numbers from the actual election to help:

Electoral votes (152 needed to avoid being thrown to the House)
Lincoln: 180
Breckinridge: 72
Bell: 39
Douglas: 12

Lincoln's closest wins
California: Lincoln 0.61% over Douglas (4 electoral votes)
Oregon: Lincoln 1.83% over Breckinridge (3 electoral votes)
Illinois: Lincoln 3.52% over Douglas (11 electoral votes)
New York: Lincoln 7.42% over Douglas/Breckinridge/Bell fusion (35 electoral votes)
Indiana: Lincoln 8.65% over Douglas (13 electoral votes)



Here's the two most likely situations I could come up with.

Scenario 1: New York picks the fusion ticket
I'm not entirely familiar with how the New York fusion ticket would have worked in 1860, but I've read that it was allocated to give 18 electgrs to Douglas, 10 to Bell, and 7 to Breckinridge. That would bring the electoral count to: Lincoln 145, Breckinridge 79, Bell 49, Douglas 30. So Lincoln, Breckinridge, and Bell advance to the House.

Scenario 2: California, Illinois, and Indiana pack Douglas, Oregon picks Breckinridge
In this case, the electoral vote count ends up like: Lincoln 149, Breckinridge 75, Douglas 40, Bell 39. So Lincoln, Breckinridge, and Douglas advance to the House.

The next question is: Who would win in these House contests? The outgoing House had a Republican plurality of 113, versus 99 Democrats and 23 American+Opposition Party members (allies of Bell). Under Scenario 1, it's difficult to imagine a sectional candidate like either Lincoln or Breckinridge receiving enough crossover support to get elected. So it seems likely that Bell would win Scenario 1 as a compromise candidate. Scenario 2 is trickier, but it's worth noting that the support of the American+Opposition Party members would be crucial, and all of them came from slave states, which pretty much crushes Lincoln's chances. It would also remain difficult for Breckinridge to get any support from Northern Democrats. So perhaps Douglas wins Scenario 2.