PPP-WA: Hillary leads all Republicans by double digits

[Landslide Lyndon]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2015/05/clinton-up-big-in-washington.html

Clinton        48
Bush           37

Clinton       49
Carson       39

Clinton       49
Christie      34

Clinton       50
Huckabee   37

Clinton       50
Cruz           38

Clinton       50
Paul           38

Clinton       50
Perry          37

Clinton       49
Rubio         39

Clinton       49
Walker       38
 

[mds32]

Very interesting. We can already tell that some of these candidates are better than Romney, Rubio is at 39% here. Romney got 41% in 2012. Clinton is under-performing President Obama here in 2012. I predict she will win WA 56-43 in 2016.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Back in 2008 the Pacific Northwest was one of the places where Obama consistently polled significantly better than Clinton, so her performing worse now is no surprise.

[mds32]

Exactly, she will probably be at 56-43 in Washington and 54-44 in Oregon.

[Skye]

Interesting results, but not really surprising.

[King]

While there's not much that can be said about a poll of Washington, one notable thing is this is the first poll sampled since Jeb bungled the Iraq question. He has a worse favorable rating (21/55 -34) than Christie (23/51 -28).

[Angel of Death]

Carson is tied as the best opponent?

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I realize it's a small sample size, but Ben Carson wins 43% of the AA vote.

[Skill and Chance]

I realize it's a small sample size, but Ben Carson wins 43% of the AA vote.

Generally speaking, it is amazing how much more Republican Blacks in WA are. I wonder why?
Also interesting that Bush only gets 8% of the Hispanic vote (worst showing of all Republicans) despite muh Hispanic wife and that Hillary has such a low favorability rating (42%) in a deep blue state (among AAs, it is even lower: 39% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable!!)

Probably relative wealth and relative isolation?  I have read that black voters in places like Iowa and Northern New England are unusually Republican as well.  Or maybe we are seeing the first signs of what happened with the Catholic vote post-Kennedy?! 

[mds32]

I don't know why they poll Walker vs. any of those other Democratic candidates. Sanders is probably the only serious one to consider pitting Walker against after Clinton but Chafee? Webb?

[Xing]

Republicans won't do better than 43 or 44% in Washington, and I doubt they'll even get that much. Safe D, end of story.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Washington and Oregon will certainly trend Republican in 2016. Obama was an excellent cultural fit for both states.

[IceSpear]

They also tested Walker against other Dems:

Walker 34%
O'Malley: 31%

Walker: 35%
Chafee: 29%

Walker: 35%
Sanders: 35% 

Walker: 33%
Webb: 32%

I say we throw Hillary overboard and make Washington a battleground state. Who's with me?!

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

They also tested Walker against other Dems:

Walker 34%
O'Malley: 31%

Walker: 35%
Chafee: 29%

Walker: 35%
Sanders: 35% 

Walker: 33%
Webb: 32%

I say we throw Hillary overboard and make Washington a battleground state. Who's with me?!

Around 55% of Atlas, considering Hillary's HP rating here.

[TJ in Oregon]

I realize it's a small sample size, but Ben Carson wins 43% of the AA vote.

Generally speaking, it is amazing how much more Republican Blacks in WA are. I wonder why?
Also interesting that Bush only gets 8% of the Hispanic vote (worst showing of all Republicans) despite muh Hispanic wife and that Hillary has such a low favorability rating (42%) in a deep blue state (among AAs, it is even lower: 39% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable!!)

Probably relative wealth and relative isolation?  I have read that black voters in places like Iowa and Northern New England are unusually Republican as well.  Or maybe we are seeing the first signs of what happened with the Catholic vote post-Kennedy?! 

Nah, the Catholic vote wasn't lopsided for the Dems before Kennedy like the black vote was. There'll probably be a bounce back to the GOP, maybe if we're really lucky we can crack double digits, but it'll be a whole lot longer before the black vote is competitive than it was for the Catholics.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I realize it's a small sample size, but Ben Carson wins 43% of the AA vote.

Generally speaking, it is amazing how much more Republican Blacks in WA are. I wonder why?
Also interesting that Bush only gets 8% of the Hispanic vote (worst showing of all Republicans) despite muh Hispanic wife and that Hillary has such a low favorability rating (42%) in a deep blue state (among AAs, it is even lower: 39% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable!!)

Minorities in WA tend to be conservative. In 2004 Kerry won the white male vote in WA but lost the male vote overall because of "non-white men".

[Skye]

They also tested Walker against other Dems:

Walker 34%
O'Malley: 31%

Walker: 35%
Chafee: 29%

Walker: 35%
Sanders: 35% 

Walker: 33%
Webb: 32%

I say we throw Hillary overboard and make Washington a battleground state. Who's with me?!

I am!

Jk aside, I'd like to see Washington be competitive again.

[mds32]

Republicans won't do better than 43 or 44% in Washington, and I doubt they'll even get that much. Safe D, end of story.

I agree, 43-44% seems about right barring something extraordinary happening.

[Alcon]

I realize it's a small sample size, but Ben Carson wins 43% of the AA vote.

Generally speaking, it is amazing how much more Republican Blacks in WA are. I wonder why?
Also interesting that Bush only gets 8% of the Hispanic vote (worst showing of all Republicans) despite muh Hispanic wife and that Hillary has such a low favorability rating (42%) in a deep blue state (among AAs, it is even lower: 39% favorable vs. 44% unfavorable!!)

Minorities in WA tend to be conservative. In 2004 Kerry won the white male vote in WA but lost the male vote overall because of "non-white men".

I really wouldn't trust that exit poll result.  First, the sample size is small.  Second, sample size notwithstanding, exit polls tend to be subject to all kind of bizarre hard weights.  Finally, and most damningly, there's just no evidence that this actually happens in the precinct results.  Heavily minority areas are heavily Democratic.  The few majority-black precincts in WA are as Democratic as you'd expect them to be; ditto majority Hispanic and majority Asian areas.  I guess it's theoretically possible that minorities in highly white areas are starkly more Republican than the whites around them, but lol no.  The exit poll was wrong.

[Mr. Illini]

Don't tell Gravis