Why does the GOP get fooled each time by the "Fools Gold" known as Pennsylvania?
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  Why does the GOP get fooled each time by the "Fools Gold" known as Pennsylvania?
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Author Topic: Why does the GOP get fooled each time by the "Fools Gold" known as Pennsylvania?  (Read 6758 times)
Gekkonidae
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« Reply #25 on: May 25, 2015, 09:37:29 PM »

PA was very close in 2012. A Republican could win it anytime soon.
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True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)
Ernest
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« Reply #26 on: May 26, 2015, 12:52:32 AM »

Pennsylvania has had no real trend in its trend over the past half century. If 2016 were to have a tied PV, Pennsylvania could, if it trended Republican that year, fall into the GOP column. It's quite possible that Pennsylvania could be the tipping point state.  They almost were that state in 2012 (only 1 state away)

How are they getting fooled? 

They had hundreds of millions of dollars to play with, why not contest every swing state? 

This too.  It's not as if there are a lot of places to put money in, and those that would be better are already going to get saturated with spending.
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DS0816
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« Reply #27 on: May 28, 2015, 03:47:16 PM »

PA was very close in 2012. A Republican could win it anytime soon.

Actually, it wasn't close in 2012.
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Likely Voter
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: May 28, 2015, 03:54:42 PM »

For the last two elections PA was seen as a plan B when other states seemed to be slipping away. In 2016 it may be the same thing if VA appears to be trending away.

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Rockefeller GOP
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« Reply #29 on: May 28, 2015, 04:20:27 PM »

PA was very close in 2012. A Republican could win it anytime soon.

Actually, it wasn't close in 2012.
As long as you agree that Arizona and Georgia weren't, either.

Oh, he won't.
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Tutankhuman Bakari Sellers
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« Reply #30 on: May 28, 2015, 06:25:10 PM »

Well, NJ and NH fell out of range; and CO and NV leans Dem; that leaves Pa in order to win.
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DS0816
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« Reply #31 on: May 28, 2015, 06:34:32 PM »

PA was very close in 2012. A Republican could win it anytime soon.

Actually, it wasn't close in 2012.
As long as you agree that Arizona and Georgia weren't, either.

Arizona and Georgia were close.

To each other.
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Ebowed
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« Reply #32 on: May 29, 2015, 05:53:06 AM »

I have been saying for a while- PA is going for the GOP in 2016, but VA will go blue (regular, not Atlas)

Yeah, I don't see that happening. I don't see how the GOP is going to do well enough in the eastern portion of the state where they absolutely have to do atleast decent.

Toomey coattails.

Just like Specter's coattails won it in 2004, right?

Specter was not the type to win votes for a candidate other than himself.

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sg0508
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« Reply #33 on: May 29, 2015, 07:49:51 AM »

I have been saying for a while- PA is going for the GOP in 2016, but VA will go blue (regular, not Atlas)

Yeah, I don't see that happening. I don't see how the GOP is going to do well enough in the eastern portion of the state where they absolutely have to do atleast decent.

Toomey coattails.
Only in '04 was there doubt that the Democratic candidate would carry the state.  Every other cycle this century, there was practically no doubt going into Election Night who was winning PA. 
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #34 on: May 30, 2015, 06:42:10 AM »
« Edited: May 30, 2015, 06:52:41 AM by pbrower2a »

PA was very close in 2012. A Republican could win it anytime soon.

5.4% in 2012. Fringe of contention in a 50-50 election.

Barack Obama maxed out in Pennsylvania in 2008. He campaigned little there in 2012 as he was more concerned with legitimate swing states.

Pennsylvania is roughly the difference between 230 and 250 electoral votes for a Democratic nominee for President. The mirror image in 2012 was Ohio, the difference between 285 and 303 electoral votes for the Democrat (or between 235 and 253 electoral votes for the Republican nominee in 2012).

2016? Pennsylvania was close to being the tipping-point state, which it would become if one (but not both!) of Ohio and Virginia became more D than Pennsylvania in 2016.
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SATW
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« Reply #35 on: May 31, 2015, 11:24:24 PM »

How are they getting fooled? 

They had hundreds of millions of dollars to play with, why not contest every swing state? 
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blacknwhiterose
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« Reply #36 on: December 08, 2016, 11:17:54 AM »

HAHAHAHA, some earlier posters wanna eat some humble pie?  To those paying close attention to the math, Pennsylvania has been subtly trending Republican since 2000.  Romney largely ignored Pennsylvania until the 11th hour, and still spent a lot less $$$ than he did on states like Nevada and Wisconsin, yet came closer in PA.  The state was just 1 percentage point more Democratic than the country as a whole.

If Trump's brand of populism is the future of the GOP, Pennsylvania will continue this trend.
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mistertheplague
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« Reply #37 on: December 08, 2016, 10:39:14 PM »

Party registration and election results data just updated by Pennsylvania Dept. of State and Bureau of Elections:

Party Registration Change, 2008-2015 Cumulative

No data available on new registrations
Change Reg to Dem: 218,520 (124,526 from Rep; 1,388 from Lib; 92,606 from Other)
Change Reg to Rep: 269,233 (192,521 from Dem; 1,554 from Lib; 75,158 from Other)
No data available on Change Reg to Other

Party Registration New/Change, 2016

New Dem: 271,939
New Rep: 155,048
New Other: 76,470

Change to Dem: 124,350 (45,966 from Rep; 78,384 from Other)
Change to Rep: 166,551 (110,529 from Dem; 56,022 from Other)
Change to Other: 63,175 (41,886 from Dem; 21,289 from Rep)

2016 PA Election Results -- Pres.

Trump: 2,970,764
Clinton: 2,926,457
Johnson: 146,709
Stein: 49,947
Castle: 21,569
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Mike67
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« Reply #38 on: December 08, 2016, 10:48:05 PM »

Thank God the GOP didn't get fooled this time and won Pennsylvania
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jfern
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« Reply #39 on: December 08, 2016, 11:02:23 PM »

GOP get fooled the same way in Wisconsin too.

Let me guess, Michigan, too?
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ApatheticAustrian
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« Reply #40 on: December 09, 2016, 12:29:04 AM »

can someone explain in short sentences or link to a useful piece "why" PA is .. trending .. republican....contrary to the "normal" mitwest states the sheer size of philly and the addition of pittsburgh and the suburbs should make a majority possible, so i would love some more in-depth analysis.....especially about what to expect demographically. (i have read articles claiming that rural PA is dying and articles stating Phillie is close to shrinking and losing active voters)
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KingCharles
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« Reply #41 on: December 09, 2016, 12:47:27 AM »


They even got partially fooled in Maine! What are the odds! Quadruple foolery in one election! Duh oh
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mistertheplague
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« Reply #42 on: December 09, 2016, 05:13:00 PM »

can someone explain in short sentences or link to a useful piece "why" PA is .. trending .. republican....contrary to the "normal" mitwest states the sheer size of philly and the addition of pittsburgh and the suburbs should make a majority possible, so i would love some more in-depth analysis.....especially about what to expect demographically. (i have read articles claiming that rural PA is dying and articles stating Phillie is close to shrinking and losing active voters)

Granted, I'm biased, but reports of PA's reddening, in my opinion, are often exaggerated. It's a complicated picture once you dive into the data.

Some factors possibly favoring Democrats:

  • Population growth and demographics: A study commissioned by the PA legislature projects 2010-2040 population growth of 1.4 million to 14.1 million people in 2040. 90% of that growth will occur in urban counties, and 85% will occur from overseas immigration.
  • SE PA (Philadelphia and the "collar counties") is expected to account for the largest share of population growth, accounting for 891K of the 1.4 million. This area has strongly trended Democratic since 1988, the last time the GOP won a presidential race in PA. It has accounted for 54-58% of the statewide vote, and that percentage is expected to increase.
  • The other large population center, Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) has also strongly trended Democratic. It's expected to grow, though not as rapidly as Metro Philly. Its statewide vote totals are second only to Philadelphia County.

 
Some factors possibly favoring Republicans:

  • That legislative study also has PA's population getting slightly older overall.
  • It's true that PA has voted more Republican in presidential elections since 1992 by 0.4% each election, as noted by Dave Wasserman.
  • Although the population of in-state red counties has remained level or declined, these counties are getting a lot redder. Democrats are at a distinct disadvantage on social issues (God, gays, and guns) in these parts of the state. Since fracking has become a mainstay of the state economy, the environment is also an issue which Democrats used to have an advantage on, but may no longer. The only thing Dems had to hang on to was the party's legacy of economic populism. A GOP candidate like Trump in that regard is the PA Democratic Party's worst nightmare.
  • To that point, what really had Democratic strategists in PA eating xanax is the fact that Trump flipped traditional industrial Democratic strongholds like Scranton, Wilkes-Barre, Bethlehem, and Erie. Trump also improved on Romney's showing in Philly enough to catch people's attention. If that wasn't just a one-off owing to a "perfect storm" candidate like Trump, PA Democrats could be in some seriously deep sh**t in statewide races for a while.

One factor that could favor either Republicans or Democrats is that it's clear that a large number of Trump voters had either never voted before or at least hadn't voted in 2012. If these voters prove to be fickle, or if Trump disappoints them, and they return to their non-participatory pattern, then the GOP's vote count in this cycle will appear in retrospect as inflated. If, on the other hand, they are happy with Trump in 2 to 4 years, and become part of the GOP base, well ...
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