Areas Hillary can do better than Obama in 2016

[Devils30]

Of course there's the deadcat bounce she will probably get in KY, WV, AR that will get her a couple points on Obama but not nearly enough to win. What places in key states do you think she can do better than Obama in? I would say:

Southwest PA/Eastern OH- Against someone like Jeb she might be able to win counties like Fayette outright. The PA/OH border is probably the biggest risk for a GOP flip compared to 2008, one they can ill-afford.

Palm Beach County, FL- Obama's 2012 was the worst Democratic showing here in a long time but the county is getting more diverse and Hillary probably won't slip much more with Jewish voters.

Northern FL- GOP's vote is pretty much maxed out, not much room for R's to grow in this inelastic region.

Atlanta suburbs- not a swing state yet but Henry County should flip blue based on the 2014 Senate numbers and Gwinnett in a Presidential year could be down to a 5% GOP margin.

[Skill and Chance]

I think she has the potential to outrun his 2012 numbers in the following areas:

1. Rural Gulf Coast states, most consequentially North Florida
2. Most of Appalachia, but still probably doing worse than Obama 2008 most everywhere
3. Some Northeastern suburbs
4. Possibly suburban VA (NOVA/Henrico/VA Beach) based on McAuliffe
5. Some majority Hispanic areas if her opponent isn't Jeb or Rubio


I think suburban Atlanta will be one of her worst regions vs. Obama, because it is just so sensitive to even a slight drop in black enthusiasm.  She probably gets between Obama 2008 and 2012 numbers with Hispanics.  Republicans aren't exactly reaching out, but they know to be more careful than "self-deportation" now.

[Devils30]

I don't think suburban Atlanta will be a bad area for her, Gwinnett is only 42% white so the numbers say Dems should continue to gain.

[bedstuy]

Basically everywhere but Illinois, very liberal areas, black neighborhoods and college campuses.

[VPH]

1. Missouri, possibly winning Iron County, St. Genevive County, Buchanan County, and Jefferson County. She'll outperform him in the border counties with Arkansas, but underperform in St. Louis City.
2. I could see Hillary doing better up and down the Great Plains. A lot of this would be counties Obama won in '08 but lost in '12. Some counties she might add to Obama's 2012 total:
ND: Cass, Trail, Nelson, Grand Forks, Eddie, Towner, Barnes
SD: Brown, Spink, Brookings, Lake, Moody, Minnehaha, and Mellette
NE: Lancaster, Douglas, Saline, Dakota
KS: Shawnee, Crawford, Lyon
OK: Muskogee, Cherokee
3. Deep Southern Indiana
4. Rural Southern Ohio (Pike, Scioto, Ross)
5. Virginia

[pbrower2a]

Possible gains:

1. The Mountain South (AR, KY, TN, WV, northern Georgia outside of Atlanta, and southern MO). Barack Obama did far worse in these states than one would expect for anyone winning nationwide. Even if he won like Reagan in much of America, he lost like "Walter McGovern" and "George Mondale" in those states. Racial animus may have played a huge role. It is hard to see how Hillary Clinton can do as badly as Barack Obama did in those states while winning nationwide.

She could flip Georgia and Missouri.

2. Arizona and Texas. The Hispanic population is growing, and so especially is the Hispanic component of the electorates of those two states. The Republicans have nothing to offer most Hispanics. Tax cuts don't excite the poor; anti-intellectualism offends the well-educated Hispanic middle class. I expect the GOP to double down on seeking the white ignoramus vote; it can hold onto much of it (see what I said about the Mountain South) but only at the cost of offending bigger parts of the electorate.

She could flip Arizona.

3. The Deep South. Barack Obama did well enough with the white vote of Kentucky and West Virginia (around 40%)  that if he did that well with the white vote in Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama he would have won those states.  

Wild card. Nothing to lose here.    

4. Kansas. Kansas long had a reputation as a clean-government, if conservative, state. The Kansas Republican Party has gone so far to the Right that the GOP could splinter between comparative moderates and extremists. Republican moderates would be in a good position in which to take over the Kansas Democratic Party.

Republicans had to fight to keep the Governorship and a Senate seat in a wave year for Republicans. 2016 will not be a wave year for Republicans.

5. Alaska. Obama did better in 2012 in Alaska (although he still lost) than he did in 2008.

6. Indiana. She might not win the state, but the state is culturally closer to Ohio than to the South. It's just more rural.

== THE BIG ONE ==

NORTH CAROLINA. Obama barely won it in 2008 and barely lost it in 2012. Fifteen electoral votes and a shaky R Senate seat put it in play. Hillary Clinton may be more interested in the Senate seat than in the state's electoral votes by November.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Basically everywhere but Illinois, very liberal areas, black neighborhoods and college campuses.

She going for Southwest corridor; rather than Appalachia. Co, NV, Ia, Pa and NH.

[Nyvin]

She'll perform much better in the midwest, states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, etc.    Probably she'll be a better fit for Ohio, but there might be lower African American turnout, so it might be a wash.

She'll probably lose ground in the western states like Nevada and Colorado.   I think she'll still win Nevada though.

I don't see her losing Virginia in any scenario really.    

With the midwest states mostly decided (except Iowa), the real toss ups in 2016 will be Florida,  Ohio, North Carolina, Missouri, and Colorado.

[YaBoyNY]

Basically everywhere but Illinois, very liberal areas, black neighborhoods and college campuses.

She going for Southwest corridor; rather than Appalachia. Co, NV, Ia, Pa and NH.

Are you a Clinton campaign member? You sure sound like it telling us what the campaign will be doing even when they've said they're pulling a 50 state strategy.

[Xing]

Potentially anywhere, but probably...

1) Appalachia (won't be enough for her to come close to winning those states)
2) The Rust Belt (relative to the nation as a whole, that is)
3) The Southwest (though TX still stays strongly Republican, and AZ probably doesn't flip either)

[136or142]

5. Alaska. Obama did better in 2012 in Alaska (although he still lost) than he did in 2008.

Sarah Palin being on the ballot in 2008 was the reason John McCain did well there in 2008. 

Democrats have only once in recent times reached 50% of the vote there in high office races (Mark Begich got under 50% winning in 2008, Tony Knowles got only 41% in getting elected and then got 51% in reelection against 3 Republican opponents).

Obama's recent executive order there to put more Alaska land out of use for resource extraction will likely hurt the Democrats even more.

[RINO Tom]

Basically everywhere but Illinois, very liberal areas, black neighborhoods and college campuses.

She going for Southwest corridor; rather than Appalachia. Co, NV, Ia, Pa and NH.

She told you that?  Or is that just the best way to protect her ironclad 272 firewall?

Semi; colon.

[Ebsy]

Basically everywhere but Illinois, very liberal areas, black neighborhoods and college campuses.

She going for Southwest corridor; rather than Appalachia. Co, NV, Ia, Pa and NH.

She told you that?  Or is that just the best way to protect her ironclad 272 firewall?

Semi; colon.

lmao

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Basically everywhere but Illinois, very liberal areas, black neighborhoods and college campuses.

r



She going for Southwest corridor; rather than Appalachia. Co, NV, Ia, Pa and NH.

Are you a Clinton campaign member? You sure sound like it telling us what the campaign will be doing even when they've said they're pulling a 50 state strategy.

She is going after that 272 blue wall.

[Skye]

Arkansas.

[WVdemocrat]

Basically everywhere but Illinois, very liberal areas, black neighborhoods and college campuses.

r



She going for Southwest corridor; rather than Appalachia. Co, NV, Ia, Pa and NH.

Are you a Clinton campaign member? You sure sound like it telling us what the campaign will be doing even when they've said they're pulling a 50 state strategy.

She is going after that 272 blue wall.

You really think she doesn't want to expand the map or at least maintain the Obama 2012 map?

[LLR]

Basically everywhere but Illinois, very liberal areas, black neighborhoods and college campuses.

This might be the worst prediction of 2016 (sorry bedstuy)

She overperformed obama in IL and in liberal areas, and Trump performed record low-level on campuses and black neighbrhood difference wasn't huge. And as to everywhere else...

[RI]

Other than the Atlanta suburbs, OP was 100% wrong.