My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency.

[pbrower2a]

I begin with a schedule of poll closings:




I assume that nothing changes, including times of state poll closings, lines between zones of standard time, county boundaries, etc.

[pbrower2a]

Greetings! This is Jack Kowalski... and I greet you from the studios of the Pirate Television Network for our coverage of the Presidential Election of 2016.

We aren't showing any polls now; the only ones that will matter from here on will be election results. Hillary Clinton and Scott Walker begin even. I begin with a blank slate.
 

At 6PM, polls have closed in the areas of the Eastern Time Zone in Indiana and Kentucky. Voting continues for another hour in the Central Time Zone in both states and we will not show results for either state until the polls fully close in both states.   

It's back to your regularly-scheduled program, Bowling From Ziggy's Bar and Lanes.

[pbrower2a]

...And we say Farewell! at "BOWLING FROM ZIGGY'S BAR AND LANES!"

The first states to close at 7PM are

GEORGIA
INDIANA
KENTUCKY
SOUTH CAROLINA
VERMONT

--and --

VIRGINIA

Of those, President Obama won only Vermont and Virginia in both 2008 and 2012; he also got Indiana in 2008.

Hillary Clinton gets the three electoral votes of Vermont. Everything else is too close to call or too early to call.

(note sounds of bowling in the background).

[King]

can't you just post the end?

[pbrower2a]

We just got some e-mails from some silly people devoted to something called Leip's Election Atlas asking why you are putting Vermont in blue.

Simple answer -- this isn't Leip's Election Atlas. It's the Pirate Broadcasting Network in our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes.

(bowling sounds, bar chatter, clinking glasses, bleeps for foul words by patrons.


Hillary Clinton has a slight lead in Indiana; Scott Walker has slight leads everywhere else.

Hillary Clinton gets the three electoral votes of Vermont. Everything else is too close to call or too early to call.

[pbrower2a]

can't you just post the end?

I'm trying to create some drama.  Don't worry -- I will get there.

[pbrower2a]

7:30 from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

North Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia close. Scott Walker has a razor-thin lead in North Carolina and West Virginia, and Hillary Clinton has a thin lead in Ohio but otherwise it is too early to call. As in 2008 we may not know how North Carolina goes until tomorrow.

Hillary Clinton gets the three electoral votes of Vermont. Everything else is too close to call or too early to call.

[Skill and Chance]

can't you just post the end?

Yeah, unless he's just posting his prediction itself; this seems more like a "What-If" scenario.

98% chance "he" is a computer!

[Cory]

I think the idea is that this is his actual prediction but he's posting it in Election Night drama format for greater entertainment for the audience. I for one approve. It's fun to watch these things unfold. We only get real Election Night once every 2 years after all.

[pbrower2a]

8:00 from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

States fully closing their polls are

ALABAMA
CONNECTICUT
DELAWARE
FLORIDA
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
ILLINOIS
MAINE
MASSACHUSETTS
MISSISSIPPI
MARYLAND
NEW HAMPSHIRE
NEW JERSEY
PENNSYLVANIA
OKLAHOMA
RHODE ISLAND

and TENNESSEE

Polls in Michigan close except in some counties in the Upper Peninsula and in Texas except in the far west, which includes El Paso -- and we can't show those until  an hour from now.

We can call --

Alabama, Mississippi, and Oklahoma for Scott Walker.

Connecticut, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, Maine (including both Congressional districts), Maryland, and Rhode Island for Hillary Clinton.    

Scott Walker, the Republican, can claim 22 electoral votes. He has leads, but it is still too early to call, in Kentucky, South Carolina and West Virginia. Hillary Clinton has leads in Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, but those are too early to call. Hillary Clinton has won 81 electoral votes.  

Florida is way too close to call. Walker has early leads in Indiana, Virginia, and Tennessee, but those are too early to call. And what is going on in Georgia?

[pbrower2a]

8:27 from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

This is Jack Kowalski again, and with some confidence I can now call South Carolina and West Virginia for Scott Walker. 14 electoral votes can be assigned to the Republican nominee for President.

8:30. Arkansas closes. It's too close to call. We're not calling the state in which Hillary Clinton was the wife of a popular Governor. Hillary Clinton has slight but insignificant leads in Florida. Scott Walker has a slight but insignificant leads in Georgia and Missouri. We aren't going to know how Georgia or Missouri goes until we get the votes from Atlanta, Kansas City, and St. Louis. Tennessee seems to be leaning toward Scott Walker.   

8:32. We are assigning New Hampshire to Hillary Clinton. A state that has gone only once for the Republican nominee for President goes for Hillary Clinton as the votes run out.
    

SCOTT WALKER (R) 36

HILLARY CLINTON  (D) 85

[pbrower2a]

Jack Kowalski, again,from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

8:50 PM. The Pirate Television Network now recognizes that the miracle that Scott Walker was looking for in Pennsylvania just isn't going to happen. We also recognize that Florida is trending toward Hillary Clinton.  We don't know where the votes are coming in from in Indiana -- Fort Wayne? Scott Walker has gone from being slightly behind to slightly ahead in Indiana. In Virginia, the early advantage for Scott Walker has evaporated.  
    

SCOTT WALKER (R) 36

HILLARY CLINTON  (D) 105

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

First of all, you are using the wrong colors. Second of all, this is the wrong section. Third of all, nobody cares about your hackish predictions and how Hillary will win a landslide in the end or how Walker will make America into a fascist hellhole.

[pbrower2a]

Jack Kowalski, again,from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

8:56. We are calling Kentucky and Tennessee. That's nineteen more electoral votes for Scott Walker, and he needs every one of them. We think that Arkansas, Georgia, Indiana and Missouri  now lean for Walker.

9:00 -- Jack Kowalski from The Pirate Television Network studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

States whose polls are closing are:

ARIZONA
COLORADO
KANSAS
LOUISIANA
MICHIGAN
MINNESOTA
NEBRASKA
NEW MEXICO
NEW YORK
SOUTH DAKOTA
TEXAS
WISCONSIN

and

WYOMING

We project Scott Walker winning South Dakota, Texas, Wyoming, and three of the five electoral votes of Nebraska. We project Hillary Clinton winning Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, and New York. Other states and the First and Second Districts of Nebraska are either too close to call or too early to call.
    

SCOTT WALKER (R) 101

HILLARY CLINTON  (D) 165

[pbrower2a]

First of all, you are using the wrong colors. Second of all, this is the wrong section. Third of all, nobody cares about your hackish predictions and how Hillary will win a landslide in the end or how Walker will make America into a fascist hellhole.

1. It is a prediction.

2. It is fiction for now. "Jack Kowalski" is a fictional character, as is the Pirate Television Network. Get it? The site is a bowling alley.

3. I have an agenda here. Note that things are not definitively better for Hillary Clinton in this scenario than they were for Obama in 2008 or 2012.

4. At this point Scott Walker could still win, and not based on him having a miraculous win in California.

5. I show practically no analysis.

6. I am already thinking of a surprise ending.

7. Do you expect "Pirate Television Network" to show the colors as the Atlas does? ABC, CBS, CNN, FOX, NBC, and PBS don't.

8. Am I talking about Scott Walker turning America into a fascist hell-hole in this thread? You brought it up.   

[pbrower2a]

9:10 PM, Jack Kowalski, again, from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

We can now call Louisiana and the First Congressional District of Nebraska for Scott Walker.  Scott Walker seems to be opening a lead in Kansas, but not enough for a call.

9:20 PM. We can finally call Virginia. Its 13 electoral votes now seem to go to Hillary Clinton. It looks close, but the votes not counted are largely coming from districts that went strongly for Barack Obama in 2008 and 2012 in Richmond and Norfolk. Wisconsin has a slight edge for Hillary Clinton and not the Governor of the State.
    

SCOTT WALKER (R) 110

HILLARY CLINTON  (D) 178

[pbrower2a]

Jack: At this point it looks as if Scott Walker is to win the Presidency without any of the traditionally-reliable states for Democrats on the West Coast he has to win everything not already called.

[pbrower2a]

9:40 PM.   Jack Kowalski, again, from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

Colorado is giving an early lead to Hillary Clinton. We can now call Kansas as a Walker win.
    

SCOTT WALKER (R) 116

HILLARY CLINTON  (D) 178

[pbrower2a]

10 PM.   Jack Kowalski, again, from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

States closing polls at this hour are:

IDAHO
IOWA
MONTANA
NEVADA
NORTH DAKOTA
UTAH

Scott Walker wins Idaho, North Dakota, and Utah. Iowa and Nevada give small early leads to Hillary Clinton, but they are too close to call.

10:05 PM We call Indiana and Arkansas for Scott Walker.
    

SCOTT WALKER (R) 152

HILLARY CLINTON  (D) 178

[pbrower2a]

11 PM.   Jack Kowalski, again, from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

States closing polls at this hour are:

CALIFORNIA
HAWAII
NEVADA
OREGON
WASHINGTON

Hillary  Clinton wins every one of these states and their 79 electoral votes. Three electoral votes away for Hillary Clinton becoming the 45th President of the United States and the first woman to be President of the United States.

11:05

Hillary Clinton is one electoral vote closer as she wins the Second Congressional District of Nebraska -- largely Greater Omaha. Georgia and Missouri are tightening up as votes come in from Atlanta, Kansas City, and St. Louis.

SCOTT WALKER (R) 152

HILLARY CLINTON  (D) 268

[Samantha]

Hawaii is red, wouldn't correcting that give Clinton 272?

[pbrower2a]

10:15 PM. Sirens! Police are here. They seem to be going to the bar area.

POLICE! This establishment is being closed due to the sale of intoxicating liquors to someone under the age of 21. Close the bar, the restaurant, the bowling alleys. Turn off the power to the "TV studio".

This is Jack Kowalski signing off.

Oh well, I at least got a palindrome for my number of posts (11511)

[pbrower2a]

Hawaii is red, wouldn't correcting that give Clinton 272?

Correction made. It would still be 268.

[NeverAgain]

Very interesting prediction, but it may be better suited in the "What If" Board. You suspenseful person!

[pbrower2a]

OK. People get to watch the remainder of the election on legitimate broadcasters, and they call Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin, almost simultaneously -- the four states if not the networks.

I project that Hillary Clinton will win 54-46 in the popular vote, but that she does about as well in 2016 as Obama did in 2012 in those states that Obama won -- but not better. Obama maxed out those states in 2008. Iowa and Wisconsin are a little better for Walker because Walker is from Wisconsin (weak Favorite Son effect), Iowa because of the rural vote trending R, and Colorado being closer in 2016 than in 2012 because Walker is from there.

Clinton gains most of her votes in states in which Obama got crushed in 2012 -- basically any state that Obama lost in 2012 except for North Carolina. Notice that I had to dither on Kansas. I see signs that the Kansas Republican Party is splintering.

Alaska will be a quick call for Walker at 12 PM. The other four states (AZ, GA, MO, and NC) won't be decided until the next week.