My wild prediction -- Election Night, 2016: The Presidency.

[Maxwell]

This goes in the What-If thread.

I want to smash your face.

[pbrower2a]

Um... what is "wild" about this?

The anticlimax -- and that this is one of the earliest predictions.

 

[The Other Castro]

Um... what is "wild" about this?

The anticlimax -- and that this is one of the earliest predictions.

 

There have been literally thousands of predictions made already about this election, and hundreds from this forum alone.

[MT Treasurer]

blah blah Hillary will win in a landslide pred.#5451412 blah blah

[CountryClassSF]

blah blah Hillary will win in a landslide pred.#5451412 blah blah

But the polls say Dukakis is way ahead!! And Netanyahu and Cameron are toast too!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It will be 263 once Hilary wins NV after winning Ia; and one state will come in that will put Hilary on top; CO or OH or Va.

It wont be a landslide.

[pbrower2a]

It will be 263 once Hilary wins NV after winning Ia; and one state will come in that will put Hilary on top; CO or OH or Va.

It wont be a landslide.

That's the idea.

I see the biggest gains for Hillary Clinton coming in states that Barack Obama did not win -- but not enough to win more than four states more than Barack Obama lost in 2012.  But the electorate is much less polarized after the election.   

[CountryClassSF]

It will be 263 once Hilary wins NV after winning Ia; and one state will come in that will put Hilary on top; CO or OH or Va.

It wont be a landslide.

That's the idea.

I see the biggest gains for Hillary Clinton coming in states that Barack Obama did not win -- but not enough to win more than four states more than Barack Obama lost in 2012.  But the electorate is much less polarized after the election.   

I think you're right

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Clinton will win 272-266; thats all she needs.

[WVdemocrat]

Clinton will win 272-266; thats all she needs.

Well, all she needs is 270. But I guarantee you she won't be so stupid as to aim below Obama's 2012 bar. She's not only going to want to hold the 2012 map, but expand it. I know she's going for a "50 state strategy," but I can see her campaign seriously targeting North Carolina, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Indiana beyond the Obama 2012 states.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Clinton will win 272-266; thats all she needs.

Shooting for making Obama's 2012 victory her floor should be her goal.

[Ebsy]

Clinton will win 272-266; thats all she needs.

Well, all she needs is 270. But I guarantee you she won't be so stupid as to aim below Obama's 2012 bar. She's not only going to want to hold the 2012 map, but expand it. I know she's going for a "50 state strategy," but I can see her campaign seriously targeting North Carolina, Missouri, Arizona, Georgia, and Indiana beyond the Obama 2012 states.

Um... if she does that she may as well kiss Florida and Ohio goodbye.

She's going to have so many resources that she can only spend so much in Ohio and Florida.

[WVdemocrat]

This "expanding the map/50 states strategy" could very well cost her the election. See: George W. Bush and California in 2000. Instead of focusing on the real battleground states, he was dumb enough to contest CA only to lose it by 12 points. Hillary Clinton will NOT win Georgia. There is almost no path to victory for her in that state. Same is true for Indiana. NC is possible. MO? Very, very unlikely. AZ? Would only flip in a Hillary LANDSLIDE of Obama 2008 proportions.

For all we know, her going with a 50 state strategy could just be to get Republicans to spend where they normally wouldn't. Or to help Democrats downballot. That said, I'm sure there's at least one or two states she'd want to flip. North Carolina would be feasible. Arizona or Missouri might too, if she invested a lot.

[pbrower2a]

One widens the map early, seeking possibilities for pick-ups that might not be obvious before the campaign takes off but might be added to the collection of winnable states. As the campaign continues one might start doing a nickel defense, giving up states marginally winnable for solidifying leads in others that clinch a win.

 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Landslide; isnt in the cards, and Clinton most likely win with 272-266; a 2000-2004 margin, due to it being a third term Dem run.

[/]

385-153

Pickups in AZ, GA, MO, NC, & NE-02

[pbrower2a]

385-153

Pickups in AZ, GA, MO, NC, & NE-02

Arizona, Georgia, Missouri, and North Carolina have contested Senate races.

One of the telling aspects of this scenario is that Indiana is called as late as it is called. No Democrat has ever lost a Presidential bid while losing Indiana by less than 11%. Indiana has obvious similarities to Ohio except that instead of having several huge urban areas, Indiana has only one giant urban area (Indianapolis) and basically areas that spill over from urban areas of other states (from Chicago and Louisville). Rural Indiana and rural Ohio are similarly right-wing -- but the vote in such cities as Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati, Dayton, and Toledo can overwhelm the rural vote in a good Democratic year. The urban vote in Indiana can go slightly ahead of the rural vote only in great Democratic years or if the Republican nominee is a complete turkey.

This scenario does not show percentages, but in view of the time in which Indiana was called, the state looked as if it may have had about a 7% lead for Walker that would be whittled down to 5% or so.  A Democratic nominee losing Indiana by a small margin  (like Truman in 1948, Bill Clinton in 1992 or 1996) by Indiana standards is winning nationwide.

Could Hillary Clinton win Indiana? Maybe -- but only if everything goes right. One is that the Republicans nominate someone who scares Americans as a fire-breathing militarist who would gut Social Security and Medicare to give tax cuts to people who do not need them. Such is Goldwater in 1964, something possible but unlikely.


...I had good cause for the anticlimax. I wanted more discussion, and I got it.   

[The Free North]

Fix

Colors

Please

For the love of everything good and holy....

[bobloblaw]

11 PM.   Jack Kowalski, again, from our studios at Ziggy's Bar and Lanes. (Bar chatter, glasses touching tables and the bar, bowling sounds)

States closing polls at this hour are:

CALIFORNIA
HAWAII
NEVADA
OREGON
WASHINGTON

Hillary  Clinton wins every one of these states and their 79 electoral votes. Three electoral votes away for Hillary Clinton becoming the 45th President of the United States and the first woman to be President of the United States.

11:05

Hillary Clinton is one electoral vote closer as she wins the Second Congressional District of Nebraska -- largely Greater Omaha. Georgia and Missouri are tightening up as votes come in from Atlanta, Kansas City, and St. Louis.

SCOTT WALKER (R) 152

HILLARY CLINTON  (D) 268

yawn...GA and MO are too R+ state to be too close to call and for Hillary to win 272 EVs.

[pbrower2a]

Fix

Colors

Please

For the love of everything good and holy....

We are the only ones who use the 'right' colors.  I am depicting someone operating a pirate TV station.   

[NeverAgain]

I suspect that WI (or OH) will give Hillary the presidency.

I suspect that AK flips. 271 freiwll

[Boston Bread]

Sorry but the era where Presidential election maps had the potential to be "wild" is long gone.