When do you think it will be clear who the 2016 Republican nominee will be?
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  When do you think it will be clear who the 2016 Republican nominee will be?		 « previous next »
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Question: When do you think it will be clear who the 2016 Republican nominee will be?
#1
January		  
#2
February		  
#3
Early March		  
#4
Late March		  
#5
April		  
#6
May		  
#7
June (but before the convention)		  
#8
Not until the convention		  
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Author Topic: When do you think it will be clear who the 2016 Republican nominee will be?  (Read 1937 times)
Orser67
Junior Chimp
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« on: May 24, 2015, 04:15:18 PM »
« edited: May 24, 2015, 04:32:13 PM by EUPW »
At what point do you think a candidate will have essentially (if not officially) have won the Republican nomination?

Current primary schedule.

Edit: The convention is July 18-21st
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Sumner 1868
tara gilesbie
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« Reply #1 on: May 24, 2015, 04:40:50 PM »
Almost certainly by April, and probably before then.
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Attorney General, Senator-Elect, & Former PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #2 on: May 24, 2015, 04:44:10 PM »
Late March at the earliest.
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #3 on: May 24, 2015, 04:45:15 PM »
If it's Jeb, April. If it's not Jeb, probably later.  And the largest state in the country will have no say in who the GOP nominee is, unless it goes to June.
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Fuzzy Bear
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« Reply #4 on: May 24, 2015, 07:36:25 PM »
Quote from: CountryClassSF on May 24, 2015, 04:45:15 PM
If it's Jeb, April. If it's not Jeb, probably later.  And the largest state in the country will have no say in who the GOP nominee is, unless it goes to June.

It will be all over but the shouting on March 15th.
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Flake
Flo
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« Reply #5 on: May 24, 2015, 07:38:01 PM »
May, but I'm not 100% sure.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #6 on: May 24, 2015, 07:41:52 PM »
Probably by April. Usually that's when the leading contender wins the last states of the primary cycle by landslides.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #7 on: May 24, 2015, 08:13:13 PM »
With a huge field and proportional delegate allocation before March 15th I can't see the Republican race ending before late March at the earliest. My guess is the race will be contested all the way through the primaries and not be decided until sometime shortly before the convention.
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Suburbia
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« Reply #8 on: May 24, 2015, 08:38:59 PM »
I think by May. If not Bush or Rubio will clinch and California will be crucial in June.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #9 on: May 24, 2015, 09:53:25 PM »
The Nevada Caucuses on February 23...though it will take much longer for it to be official (I've got Walker winning Iowa, South Carolina and Nevada)
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oeoyeleye
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« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2015, 09:27:38 AM »
It depends on the early states. If someone wins at least two of the first four, which could happen with Walker, it'll be pretty much over by Super Tuesday. If a second tier candidate wins Iowa, like Cruz or Huckabee, it'll go on much longer.
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« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2015, 04:57:57 PM »
I'm thinking March. I suspect Walker will put Bush away relatively early, and dispatch Paul and Rubio on Super Tuesday.
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Vega
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« Reply #12 on: May 25, 2015, 05:36:44 PM »
It'll probably be effectively wrapped up by mid-March. Everyone except the front runner will probably drop out by April, once it's clear that they don't have a chance.
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TomC
TCash101
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« Reply #13 on: May 25, 2015, 07:02:56 PM »
To us? March 16. Everybody else- late March/early April.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #14 on: May 25, 2015, 10:09:04 PM »
As happened in the 2004 Democratic cycle, someone will sweep the early primaries and it'll all be a big anti-climax.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #15 on: May 25, 2015, 10:23:51 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on May 24, 2015, 07:41:52 PM
Probably by April. Usually that's when the leading contender wins the last states of the primary cycle by landslides.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #16 on: May 25, 2015, 10:31:55 PM »
Quote from: oeoyeleye on May 25, 2015, 09:27:38 AM
It depends on the early states. If someone wins at least two of the first four, which could happen with Walker, it'll be pretty much over by Super Tuesday. If a second tier candidate wins Iowa, like Cruz or Huckabee, it'll go on much longer.

Cruz is only second tier in November. In a GOP Primary where goal is to appeal to the right, he's first tier.
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