Where Does Bush's Support Go?

[bobloblaw]

When Bush drops out in order to avoid a humiliation, where does his support go?

[Fuzzy Bear]

When Bush drops out in order to avoid a humiliation, where does his support go?

I voted Rubio because that's who Jeb would choose to support.  They are close, and it's not out of the question that Rubio is a bit of a stalking horse for Jeb.

That being said, if Jeb drops out, his support, and his supporters, will all go to the frontrunner, whomever he is.

[Vega]

I doubt he'll drop out; he has all the money and powerful GOP officials behind him, but if he would, probably Rubio. It would have to be early for that to happen, though, because if it came later it would just go to the front runner like Fuzzy said.

[bobloblaw]

I doubt he'll drop out; he has all the money and powerful GOP officials behind him, but if he would, probably Rubio. It would have to be early for that to happen, though, because if it came later it would just go to the front runner like Fuzzy said.

That would be true if he dropped out at 10-15%. But what if his support slowly fades into the mid single digits?

[ElectionsGuy]

Rubio. They are from the same state and promote the same foreign policy.

This will not happen though

[bballrox4717]

It's not too late for Bush to back out of the race. He still isn't a declared candidate, and while it's unlikely, I could see Bush pulling the plug because this is definitely a much different race than he was expecting.

As for his support, I suspect Bush will pay lip service to Rubio, but in all actually the financial support probably splits evenly between Rubio, Walker, and Kasich. There are just too many Republican financial backer that really want a governor to win the nomination, and believe that anyone from Congress is unelectable.

[Abraham Reagan]

Rubio. He and Bush are relatively good friends and both appeal to the reform, positive solutions kind of conservatives.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I doubt he'll drop out; he has all the money and powerful GOP officials behind him, but if he would, probably Rubio. It would have to be early for that to happen, though, because if it came later it would just go to the front runner like Fuzzy said.

I can't overemphasize the pragmatism that drives opinion regarding Jeb Bush.  He is, arguably, the best qualified Republican, based on traditional qualifications for a President, but he's a Bush, and folks have Bush fatigue.  It's nothing personal, but the GOP establishment does take note of this, and the GOP outsiders are going to harp on this somewhat.

I think a LOT of Republicans want to nominate the most electable candidate.  It's not like 1965, when RNC Chair Ray Bliss would endorse anyone who called themselves a Republican; the party is ideologically defined, and on a rather narrow basis.  No Republican running would be that out of line with the base if folks are honest with themselves.  It's the difference between the CLEARLY conservative (Bush, Walker, Rubio, Kasich, Graham, Huckabee, Christie, et al) and the EXOTICALLY conservative (Cruz, Paul).  A surge of GOP pragmatism is coming; it always is.  The GOP has always been better at playing for keeps than the Democrats.

[Fuzzy Bear]

It's not too late for Bush to back out of the race. He still isn't a declared candidate, and while it's unlikely, I could see Bush pulling the plug because this is definitely a much different race than he was expecting.

As for his support, I suspect Bush will pay lip service to Rubio, but in all actually the financial support probably splits evenly between Rubio, Walker, and Kasich. There are just too many Republican financial backer that really want a governor to win the nomination, and believe that anyone from Congress is unelectable.

I wonder if Jeb isn't holding out for 2020.  If this crew fails, and Hillary is in trouble in 2020, Jeb's candidacy takes on new life.  His record of accomplishment is more substantive than his brother's ever was prior to taking office, and there is a degree of reassessing George W. Bush's Presidency that may continue and may result in Bush 43 being viewed as something more than the abject failure he was viewed as upon leaving office.

LBJ was pilloried by both the right and left for decades, but he's now ranked even with Reagan.  Who's to say that Bush 43 won't enjoy some reassessment?  He was a decisive President, and he was not without accomplishments, controversial though some of them may have been.  Bush 41 has been reassessed upward, and that reassessment is somewhat ongoing.  By 2020, Jeb may well end up being in a situation where he looks awfully good compared to the alternatives.

[bobloblaw]

It's not too late for Bush to back out of the race. He still isn't a declared candidate, and while it's unlikely, I could see Bush pulling the plug because this is definitely a much different race than he was expecting.

As for his support, I suspect Bush will pay lip service to Rubio, but in all actually the financial support probably splits evenly between Rubio, Walker, and Kasich. There are just too many Republican financial backer that really want a governor to win the nomination, and believe that anyone from Congress is unelectable.

I wonder if Jeb isn't holding out for 2020.  If this crew fails, and Hillary is in trouble in 2020, Jeb's candidacy takes on new life.  His record of accomplishment is more substantive than his brother's ever was prior to taking office, and there is a degree of reassessing George W. Bush's Presidency that may continue and may result in Bush 43 being viewed as something more than the abject failure he was viewed as upon leaving office.

LBJ was pilloried by both the right and left for decades, but he's now ranked even with Reagan.  Who's to say that Bush 43 won't enjoy some reassessment?  He was a decisive President, and he was not without accomplishments, controversial though some of them may have been.  Bush 41 has been reassessed upward, and that reassessment is somewhat ongoing.  By 2020, Jeb may well end up being in a situation where he looks awfully good compared to the alternatives.

Pretty far fetched. LBJ ranking with Reagan only for those who ignore the 58,000 names on the Vietnam War Memorial

[bballrox4717]

I doubt he'll drop out; he has all the money and powerful GOP officials behind him, but if he would, probably Rubio. It would have to be early for that to happen, though, because if it came later it would just go to the front runner like Fuzzy said.

I can't overemphasize the pragmatism that drives opinion regarding Jeb Bush.  He is, arguably, the best qualified Republican, based on traditional qualifications for a President, but he's a Bush, and folks have Bush fatigue.  It's nothing personal, but the GOP establishment does take note of this, and the GOP outsiders are going to harp on this somewhat.

I think a LOT of Republicans want to nominate the most electable candidate.  It's not like 1965, when RNC Chair Ray Bliss would endorse anyone who called themselves a Republican; the party is ideologically defined, and on a rather narrow basis.  No Republican running would be that out of line with the base if folks are honest with themselves.  It's the difference between the CLEARLY conservative (Bush, Walker, Rubio, Kasich, Graham, Huckabee, Christie, et al) and the EXOTICALLY conservative (Cruz, Paul).  A surge of GOP pragmatism is coming; it always is.  The GOP has always been better at playing for keeps than the Democrats.

But what happens when Republican donors and the establishment realize that Bush isn't the most electable candidate? If you're putting the Bush brand directly against the Clinton brand, Jeb is going to lose unless the environment is clearly in the Republican's favor. It seems like the Republican establishment is trying to muscle Republican voters into their viewpoint similarly to 2012, and by the time they realize Bush's flaws might be as fatal as Romney, it will probably be too late.

I just think there's a really serious disconnect regarding Jeb with traditional political thinkers and reality.  Yes, the grassroots aren't as important as they think they are, but you need to have some enthusiasm on the ground level if you're going to win, and there's none when it comes to Bush. Sometimes the most qualified candidate isn't the best, most electable candidate. The Republican elite just doesn't seem to get that, and it's really telling about their views towards their own voters that they would rather fight their base than try to understand why they don't want to vote or turnout for candidates like Romney and Jeb.

[bobloblaw]

I doubt he'll drop out; he has all the money and powerful GOP officials behind him, but if he would, probably Rubio. It would have to be early for that to happen, though, because if it came later it would just go to the front runner like Fuzzy said.

I can't overemphasize the pragmatism that drives opinion regarding Jeb Bush.  He is, arguably, the best qualified Republican, based on traditional qualifications for a President, but he's a Bush, and folks have Bush fatigue.  It's nothing personal, but the GOP establishment does take note of this, and the GOP outsiders are going to harp on this somewhat.

I think a LOT of Republicans want to nominate the most electable candidate.  It's not like 1965, when RNC Chair Ray Bliss would endorse anyone who called themselves a Republican; the party is ideologically defined, and on a rather narrow basis.  No Republican running would be that out of line with the base if folks are honest with themselves.  It's the difference between the CLEARLY conservative (Bush, Walker, Rubio, Kasich, Graham, Huckabee, Christie, et al) and the EXOTICALLY conservative (Cruz, Paul).  A surge of GOP pragmatism is coming; it always is.  The GOP has always been better at playing for keeps than the Democrats.

But what happens when Republican donors and the establishment realize that Bush isn't the most electable candidate? If you're putting the Bush brand directly against the Clinton brand, Jeb is going to lose unless the environment is clearly in the Republican's favor. It seems like the Republican establishment is trying to muscle Republican voters into their viewpoint similarly to 2012, and by the time they realize Bush's flaws might be as fatal as Romney, it will probably be too late.

I just think there's a really serious disconnect regarding Jeb with traditional political thinkers and reality.  Yes, the grassroots aren't as important as they think they are, but you need to have some enthusiasm on the ground level if you're going to win, and there's none when it comes to Bush. Sometimes the most qualified candidate isn't the best, most electable candidate. The Republican elite just doesn't seem to get that, and it's really telling about their views towards their own voters that they would rather fight their base than try to understand why they don't want to vote or turnout for candidates like Romney and Jeb.

I agree 100%. If even 5% of the conservative base sat home, Jeb would lose.

[publicunofficial]

Rubio/Walker/Kasich

[WVdemocrat]

Jeb doesn't drop out, but most of his support goes to Rubio.

[IceSpear]

Isn't there friction between the Jeb and Rubio camps at this point?

[Sumner 1868]

You think Bush will drop out early?

[pbrower2a]

The liberal media are taking down one Republican at a time and leaving each with a crippled campaign vulnerable to the Obama/Clinton juggernaut. The liberal dream is a reverse-wave of 2010 or 2014.

[Cryptic]

Rubio probably gets the majority, though I could see some going to Walker.

[Donerail]

Feeling most of his supporters would go to Walker, but most of his donors would go to Rubio.

[Suburbia]

Most likely Rubio. Rubio has the same appeal, but a younger type. Walker would receive some support as well.

[TDAS04]

I doubt that Bush drops out, but if he does, his support probably goes mainly to Rubio.

[Ebsy]

It's hard to understand how badly Bush being in hurts Rubio, but should Bush drop out, I would suspect his support would be divided between Rubio and Walker.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Feeling most of his supporters would go to Walker, but most of his donors would go to Rubio.

Pretty much this.

[dudeabides]

When Bush drops out in order to avoid a humiliation, where does his support go?

Scott Walker will come the closest to Bush, but in the end, Jeb Bush will be the Republican Presidential Nominee.

[Sumner 1868]

Option 6 is the only believable one.