Can somebody please explain this result?
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  Can somebody please explain this result?
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Author Topic: Can somebody please explain this result?  (Read 722 times)
Joe Republic
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« on: May 06, 2016, 03:47:07 AM »
« edited: May 06, 2016, 09:00:49 PM by Joe Republic »




The two states fully depicted above both voted on the same day.  While Texas was an open primary and Oklahoma was 'semi-closed', this still meant that Democrats and Independents were both able to vote in the primary.

Usually you can see patterns gradually fade from one candidate to the next across state lines, but here you could easily draw the state border if you didn't already know where it was.  The sharp divide is also clear between Oklahoma and Arkansas; another open primary that also took place on the same day.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #1 on: May 06, 2016, 03:48:36 AM »

Also, please don't offer as an explanation anything to do with Oklahoma's history with Socialist candidates.  That was a century ago.
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Intell
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« Reply #2 on: May 06, 2016, 04:02:19 AM »

The republicans had a closed primary, leading conservative or populist democrats to vote for Sanders, either as a protest, or as him being the better candidate out of the two.
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Flake
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« Reply #3 on: May 06, 2016, 09:44:47 AM »

The republicans had a closed primary, leading conservative or populist democrats to vote for Sanders, either as a protest, or as him being the better candidate out of the two.

Exactly this, a ton of Sanders voters in Oklahoma, especially in the southern part of the state, were protesting Hillary instead of supporting Bernie.
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shua
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« Reply #4 on: May 06, 2016, 02:29:25 PM »

I don't believe TX registers by party, so how could it be a closed primary?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #5 on: May 06, 2016, 03:56:30 PM »

Texas and Arkansas were open primaries. Dixiecrats who wanted to cross over and vote on the Republican side could do so. In Oklahoma they couldn't, and thus voted against Hillary to "stick it to the establishment and Obama."

Also, Bernie put lots of effort in terms of advertising and ground game into Oklahoma and nearly nothing into Texas and Arkansas.
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catographer
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« Reply #6 on: May 06, 2016, 08:24:19 PM »

The percentage map actually even undersells Sanders' margins in Oklahoma. The New York Times has a national map of margin of victory by county (which you've all probably looked at very often), and southern Oklahoma gives Sanders on average 20 point margins. Maybe a home state advantage in Arkansas papered over potential gradient in results from Oklahoma to Missouri. Texas on the other hand is inexplicable.
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #7 on: May 06, 2016, 09:01:15 PM »

I don't believe TX registers by party, so how could it be a closed primary?

I meant to type 'open'.
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