Putin Has Won

[Frodo]

Presumably the door into the European Union is still open to Balkan states like Albania, and those remaining countries (like Serbia) that used to comprise the former Yugoslavia:
 
EU states reluctant to annoy Kremlin

By Michael Birnbaum  MAY 23, 2015

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[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Those doors being shut probably has more to do with the current economic situation in the European Union and the bad business it would be for the Union to allow more poor countries in at the moment, than anything to do with Russia.

By large part, the recent development with Romania, and the large social migration of poor people to other European countries, has acted as a deterrent to let other countries, with similar economic problems into the union.

The trade limitations the Union has agreed to against Russia, is probably a far greater headache to Putin, than Albania (which unfortunately has little significance in the world stage) edging closer to the EU. Thus I find it hard to believe the thesis of this article.     

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

Doesn't this presume that the Russian economy will remain stable long enough for such gains to be solidified? I think that's a rather large presumption to make.

[Beet]

The E.U. needs to focus on democratizing and streamlining its internal institutions before accepting new members. The whole fetish towards expansionism of the past 10-15 years over consolidation might be counterproductive.

Ironically we've seen this in the response to Putin himself: when all 28 member states have to agree unanimously to any action, the E.U. becomes like late 18th century Poland, where it's impossible to get anything done. That allows dictators like Putin to take advantage.

And that's even before considering the problems with democratic legitimacy that have emerged since the Euro crisis. The more members there are, the harder it will be to consolidate and the greater chance the whole thing will simply crack up one day.

[The Mikado]

It's not like anyone in the EU was seriously considering expansion now, given the economic crisis. Russia is taking credit for ending EU expansion, but EU expansion's been dead for years. If Croatia's ascension hadn't already been scheduled before the crisis, it would have stopped at the EU27...as is, the EU28 is not going to change for a long time, unless it changes by shrinking. (Or I suppose the secession of Scotland or Catalonia as EU member states, but that doesn't really count as expansion)

[bballrox4717]

No, Russia has already lost. Rather than have former Warsaw Pact countries be neutral, they are all part of the EU and NATO, which has entered former Soviet territory in the Baltics. Russia is angry because NATO is essentially treating it like Cold War era Germany: a dismembered state that should not be allowed to regain its former power. It can't project any national power when its borders are essentially what it was after the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, which was completely humiliating to Russia. The only reason why Russia is even remotely threatening to the U.S. is because of its missiles and nuclear power.

Russians completely resent this. It's why Putin is so popular. He stands up to the western consensus on cultural issues and stands up to the west when they go further into Soviet territory by trying to add Ukraine to the EU and NATO.  I don't think people quite understand that Putin is essentially using Hitler's political tactics to gain power without the crazy Nazi ideology. It's why he's so dangerous. Putin is a good enough politician to gain international and domestic favor for his actions, yet is a cold enough rational actor to realize there are lines he can't cross.

I just hope western leaders find a political solution to this before Putin is able to divide the EU and NATO enough that he can start pseudo-invading NATO countries like the Baltics. Because if international leaders cannot coordinate a quick response, they are going to have to choose between war and appeasement. We seriously cannot let it get to that point, because Putin will actually start winning.

[Platypus]

I'd be very, very surprised if Russian involvement in the Baltics didn't lead to war. If the west just allowed it to happen, then the whole point of NATO is lost, and the EU is proved to be weak.

Nobody wants to go to war, but they absolutely would if there were Russian tanks rolling into Tallinn.

[© tweed]

No, Russia has already lost. Rather than have former Warsaw Pact countries be neutral, they are all part of the EU and NATO, which has entered former Soviet territory in the Baltics.

right.  that's why Putin referred to the collapse of the USSR as "a great geopolitical catastrophe."  what you and I call "EU" and "NATO", Russia calls it Western aggression.  (remember, Russia has been demolished by Western European invasions 3 times since 1805).  Putin is on a mission to get at least some of that "buffer" territory back.

[bballrox4717]

I'd be very, very surprised if Russian involvement in the Baltics didn't lead to war. If the west just allowed it to happen, then the whole point of NATO is lost, and the EU is proved to be weak.

Nobody wants to go to war, but they absolutely would if there were Russian tanks rolling into Tallinn.

Your first point is literally exactly what Putin wants: he seeks to politically play EU countries and the US against each other to the point that nobody sees the worth in defending the Baltic countries. If NATO cannot guarantee the safety of every country in it, then it will collapse, which allows Russia to pursue a much more aggressive foreign policy.

No, Russia has already lost. Rather than have former Warsaw Pact countries be neutral, they are all part of the EU and NATO, which has entered former Soviet territory in the Baltics.

right.  that's why Putin referred to the collapse of the USSR as "a great geopolitical catastrophe."  what you and I call "EU" and "NATO", Russia calls it Western aggression.  (remember, Russia has been demolished by Western European invasions 3 times since 1805).  Putin is on a mission to get at least some of that "buffer" territory back.

It's not even about buffer territory at this point. Buffer territories are pointless with modern warfare. Putin, like many non-western leaders, see the US as a tyrannical, unipolar world power. They despise the fact that the US will act in a major power's sphere of influence without any real consequence. They think to themselves, what business does the US have in making Slavic, Middle Eastern, or Asian countries liberal democracies? To Russia (and also the Chinese), it insults their very sovereignty.

The real goal of Russia (and once again, China, even if they're off topic on this subject), is undo the current global order so that they don't have to suffer the embarrassment of foreign interference with their policies. It's a revanchist movement at heart, where the actual goals mean nothing towards the actual strength of the state.

[Dan the Roman]

I'd be very, very surprised if Russian involvement in the Baltics didn't lead to war. If the west just allowed it to happen, then the whole point of NATO is lost, and the EU is proved to be weak.

Nobody wants to go to war, but they absolutely would if there were Russian tanks rolling into Tallinn.

Russian tanks wouldn't roll into Tallinn. Volunteers would visit Narva.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's not like anyone in the EU was seriously considering expansion now, given the economic crisis. Russia is taking credit for ending EU expansion, but EU expansion's been dead for years. If Croatia's ascension hadn't already been scheduled before the crisis, it would have stopped at the EU27...as is, the EU28 is not going to change for a long time, unless it changes by shrinking. (Or I suppose the secession of Scotland or Catalonia as EU member states, but that doesn't really count as expansion)

Some of the Balkan countries should be admitted in a few years.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Well Macedonia has that really weird naming dispute with Greece, and I think the Kosovo situation is too messy for Serbia/Kosovo to get in for a while.

Ultimately Russia, Ukraine and Belarus are far too large and scary to be fully integrated into Europe as part of the economic union in the near future.

[swl]

It seems pretty clear that no one will join the EU before 2020, and before 2030 only Balkans country have a prospect to join (if you except Iceland or Norway suddenly changing their mind). The EU is still trying to digest the enlargements of 2005-2007, as shown by the UK referendum on membership.

[ingemann]

It seems pretty clear that no one will join the EU before 2020, and before 2030 only Balkans country have a prospect to join (if you except Iceland or Norway suddenly changing their mind). The EU is still trying to digest the enlargements of 2005-2007, as shown by the UK referendum on membership.

Yes we will likely see Serbia and Montenegro as EU members before 2030, Macedonia too if Greece and it can get over their little conflict.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Yes we will likely see Serbia and Montenegro as EU members before 2030, Macedonia too if Greece and it can get over their little conflict.

So Macedonia has no chance.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Yes we will likely see Serbia and Montenegro as EU members before 2030, Macedonia too if Greece and it can get over their little conflict.

So Macedonia has no chance.

Maybe they'd change their name.

[smoltchanov]

No, Russia has already lost. Rather than have former Warsaw Pact countries be neutral, they are all part of the EU and NATO, which has entered former Soviet territory in the Baltics. Russia is angry because NATO is essentially treating it like Cold War era Germany: a dismembered state that should not be allowed to regain its former power. It can't project any national power when its borders are essentially what it was after the Treaty of Brest-Litovsk, which was completely humiliating to Russia. The only reason why Russia is even remotely threatening to the U.S. is because of its missiles and nuclear power.

Russians completely resent this. It's why Putin is so popular. He stands up to the western consensus on cultural issues and stands up to the west when they go further into Soviet territory by trying to add Ukraine to the EU and NATO.  I don't think people quite understand that Putin is essentially using Hitler's political tactics to gain power without the crazy Nazi ideology. It's why he's so dangerous. Putin is a good enough politician to gain international and domestic favor for his actions, yet is a cold enough rational actor to realize there are lines he can't cross.

I just hope western leaders find a political solution to this before Putin is able to divide the EU and NATO enough that he can start pseudo-invading NATO countries like the Baltics. Because if international leaders cannot coordinate a quick response, they are going to have to choose between war and appeasement. We seriously cannot let it get to that point, because Putin will actually start winning.

+100. I say that as a Russian living in Moscow))))))

[ingemann]

Yes we will likely see Serbia and Montenegro as EU members before 2030, Macedonia too if Greece and it can get over their little conflict.

So Macedonia has no chance.

Maybe they'd change their name.

...or the Greek economy can collapse to the point that they focus on other things.

Through I will say, we may think the entire strife is complete idiocy. But we have to remember that both countries lies on the Balkans, and the Serbs gave Macedonia its name to push a claim to Greek Macedonia which had Slavic plurality at the time (today most are assimilated, but there's still a significant minority in Greek Macedonia). As such it's not without reason that the Greek try to weaken the Macedonian claims to Greek territory. It's still somewhat silly when we look at the population difference.

[Cory]

Russian tanks wouldn't roll into Tallinn. Volunteers would visit Narva.

And NATO forces would kill them all and Russia would do nothing meaningful.

There will be no Russian expansion into NATO/EU countries without a major war.

[The Mikado]

Macedonia should just change its name to West Bulgaria and end the name controversy, it'd make everyone happy.