America with Albertan parties

[Boston Bread]

We've asked this with Canadian parties, but it always ended up being pointless since it would be a Conservative landslide since they are more moderate than the GOP and vote-splitting. But using the Alberta party system where there are 2 parties on the right, and a close-to-united left it makes more sense to ask this question.

So the American version of Alberta's parties would resemble something like:

New Democratic Party: A social democratic party (although it wouldn't describe itself as socialist) formed from the left of the democratic party. More working class than the Dems and has a populist tone to its message.

Liberal Party: A social liberal party that has been reduced to mostly middle/upper class urban and suburban areas. Populated by DLC democrats.

American Party: A centrist minor party that broke from the liberals so they could form a bigger tent and also takes in disaffected voters from the centre-right.

Progressive Conservative Party: The major centre-right party mostly composed of moderate Republicans and the right fringe of the Dems. Fiscally conservative and tries to avoid social issues. Associated by its enemies with corruption and elitism, and gets the most corporate funding. Probably would turn out to be the most hawkish.

Wildrose: The upstart right-wing party. Staunchly right-wing and embraces populism. Can mainly be divided into a Christian right and libertarian/tea party faction.

What would the electoral map be?

[Boston Bread]

My idea for a 2015 equivalent:

A galore of vote-splitting leads to a Warren/Brown majority in EV's.

Elizabeth Warren (NDP-MA)/Sherrod Brown (NDP-OH) 39%, 339 EVs
Mitt Romney (PC-MA)/Bob McDonnell (PC-VA) 26%, 59 EVs
Wildorse: Bobby Jindal (WR-LA)/Sam Brownback (WR-KS) 23%, 130 EVs
Liberal: Andrew Cuomo (LIB-NY)/Terry McAuliffe (LIB-VA) 7%, 7 EVs
American: Angus King (AP-ME)/Mike Castle (AP-DE) 5%, 4 EVs

Changed colors because I couldn't make Maine yellow.

I deliberately made the Liberal ticket as unappealing as possible. PC gets second place in most red states, that's why they are in 3rd in EVs despite being 2nd in PV.

[An American Tail: Fubart Goes West]

Here's mine (more of a base map than anything else)

I followed New Canadaland's color scheme for simplicity.

Tickets:
Christie/Walker 220 EV
Warren/S. Brown 211 EV
O'Malley/Chafee 52 EV
Huckabee/D. Fischer 41 EV
Hickenlooper/Heinrich 14 EV

Notes: D. Fischer is Senator Deb Fischer of Nebraska.

I honestly wasn't quite sure what to do with New Mexico and Colorado, so I made them into the American Party.

I see the Wildrose Party as doing best in the prairie agrarian states with the South being dominated by the PCs. Someone like Lindsey Graham would be the senate leader for the PCs.

[Potus]

Since everyone is probably going to make pretty generic national maps, I decided to make a state level map of West Virginia.

I've based these predictions on the areas themselves and also who turns out. I've got the luxury, as a West Virginia Republican, of know how some of these counties vote when their citizens don't associate conservative candidates with social issues. However, even if it was Republican Economics versus Democrat Economics on the ballot, Republicans would be doing a lot better than they used to.

The Northern Panhandle is fairly heavy on industry, I'm projecting it as NDP narrowly edging out the PC as the dominant party. The Eastern Panhandle and the counties which depend on the Ohio River and Kanawha Valley for employment, I believe, will be PC strongholds. I've also project traditional Republican strongholds, like Roane and Upshur counties, for the PC. Monongalia has been more Republican than the rest of the state on many, many, many occasions.

There is a wide swath of land which used to vote Democrat but are not necessarily susceptible to the industrial style, union working class politics that the NDP would preach. Without any party  truly messaging to their economic needs, this region will be fairly reliable Wildrose territory due to the culture war concerns harbored by many of the people who "make their living on the mountains."

The traditionally Democratic stronghold that is much of the 3rd Congressional District would be very receptive to the industrial class warfare of the NDP. This region will make up probably 60-80% of NDP voters in the state.

The grey regions are undecided or tossups. Kanawha County would be home to much more representation among the parties. This is the only part of the state I can imagine having many Liberal and American sympathizers. This complicates matters of representation, but I would also say the Right would have a pretty significant "primary problem" where rural voters support Wildrose candidates that can't appeal to Charleston and Cross Lanes. PC could win if they manage to rally the rural conservatives and unite then with the suburban-ish PCers.

The remaining tossup regions are so because of their general lack of definition. They aren't trademarked for much. They aren't hubs of commerce, industry, services, or anything. They wouldn't be terribly receptive to anyone's economic message, but their penchant for social conservatism isn't as strong as much of the state. Swingy and probably low turnout, but not extremely populated.

The state would have a pretty inelastic NDP vote that serves, not necessarily as a natural party, but as a default party. When everyone else self destructs or gets swept up in a wave, the NDP would still be there. Wildrose also has a fairly secure base, it's hard to imagine many other parties being able to maintain their traditional support while also going after Wildrose. This could possibly happen with a George W. Bush style Progressive Conservative talking about business issues in "main street" terms.  The Progressive Conservatives fill a niche here that in most other states could be threatened by the American Party. But West Virginians of all party affiliations tend to be more socially conservative than the nation as a whole. It's hard to imagine the Americans or Liberals gaining much traction to jeopardize the PC hold on the greatly undervalued center-right.

[Boston Bread]

That's a good summary, Potus2036. WV would be a state where I'd have a hard time figuring out how Canadian political alignments would sort themselves out. The Alberta NDP won a lot of fossil-fuel friendly areas, so I figured an American NDP might do so as well, moreso at the local level where they can distinguish themselves from the national party.

While WV has traditional cultural values, it does not have the evangelical strength that the rest of the South has, and combined with reliance on government, I have a hard time seeing Wildrose win the state. But with the trend to the right I didn't want to be too bullish on the NDP numbers so I gave WV to the PCs in my map.

[Potus]

That's a good summary, Potus2036. WV would be a state where I'd have a hard time figuring out how Canadian political alignments would sort themselves out. The Alberta NDP won a lot of fossil-fuel friendly areas, so I figured an American NDP might do so as well, moreso at the local level where they can distinguish themselves from the national party.

While WV has traditional cultural values, it does not have the evangelical strength that the rest of the South has, and combined with reliance on government, I have a hard time seeing Wildrose win the state. But with the trend to the right I didn't want to be too bullish on the NDP numbers so I gave WV to the PCs in my map.

I'm always just a tad reluctant to associate West Virginia's social conservatism as being that of the Christian Right. A lot of it is really just populist reflex. The 2nd Amendment is a bigger issue than abortion for a lot of socially conservative voters because cultural elitism of modern liberals looks down on "our way of life." Not just the church party. But there isn't a party that is a reaction to elitism without being highly religious.

Wildrose, when characterized as "Tea Party", would fit pretty well in the space between the NDP and PCs.

Come to think of it, the NDP would very likely have a "primary problem" where the coalfields elect the nominees and then they crash and burn in the rest of the state. The primary dynamic probably favors the PCs, since they have the base that is closest to their general election voters.

[Hatman 🍁]

Change Wildrose to Wildhorse:

[VPH]

How I think it would look, followed by potential candidates in parenthesis.
NDP (Sherrod Brown, Bernie Sanders, Liz Warren, Russ Feingold)
Wildrose (Ted Cruz, Rick Santorum, Rand Paul)
Progressive Conservative (John Kasich, Jon Huntsman, Kelly Ayotte)
Liberals (Andrew Cuomo, Cory Booker, Martin O'Malley)
American (Lincoln Chafee, Olympia Snowe)

[Emperor Charles V]

I know an awful lot about Albertan politics for some reason (probably because I have an uncle who lives in Edmonton) and hate when people compare the Wildrose Party to the American Tea Party Movement. Remember, Canada is a left-wing country by American standards (for example Harper is widely considered most right-wing leader they had in recent times but judging by politics, in the US he would be at most considered a moderate Republican). The Wildrose Party by American standards are moderate libertarian conservatives. They are mainly fiscal conservatives and IIRC actually slightly to the left of PCs on social issues. Rough American analogues to them are Rand Paul and Justin Amash (who are I guess affiliated with the TP to an extent, but only because of their stances on taxes), definitely not the pro-union Santorum (he flipped flopped on the issue as soon as he ran for president, if you look at his Senate record it was very pro-union for a Republican), or even Ted Cruz. The old PC party under "King" Ralph Klein and Ed Stelmach I guess can be analogized to moderate Republicans. However, when Alison Redford took control in 2011, she pushed the party much to the left emphasizing the "progressive" part with the phrase, "not you father's PC party." So now, they are pretty much establishment Democrats. The Alberta Party I suppose is analogous to the Reform Party of the 90's (Ross Perot, Jesse Ventura, etc.) As for the NDP, think farther left than anyone you can imagine in the US, except for maybe Bernie Sanders. That's why it was such a shock when they won a majority in Canada's most conservative province earlier this month (which may I remind you, they did not. 40% of the vote is not a majority Ms. Notley!)