United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Vega]

So if the UK left the EU, what would happen to UKIP, one of there main policy planks being gone? Would they start to dwindle?

[Blair]

So if the UK left the EU, what would happen to UKIP, one of there main policy planks being gone? Would they start to dwindle?

They'd continue as the weird mix of racist former labour voters, and die hard thatcherites who are still angry about gay marriage.

Despite UKIP's success at the election they're in a similar position to the SDP after 1987 in that they've got no where to go

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

A lot of UKIP's base are more concerned about immigration than the EU. (Much, I think, to the consternation of the leadership)  they'll carry on, providing a safe space for cranky old colonels and EU-election-time lazy analysis.

[andrew_c]

So if the UK left the EU, what would happen to UKIP, one of there main policy planks being gone? Would they start to dwindle?

They would become the angry English man's party. 

[MaxQue]

So if the UK left the EU, what would happen to UKIP, one of there main policy planks being gone? Would they start to dwindle?

They would become the angry English man's party. 

That's what they are already.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You'd be better off thinking of them in terms of age...

[joevsimp]

I saw today that leave.EU are having themselves prompted on Twitter. Perfectly legitimate but it  feel distinctly shoddy as it (very) briefly tricked me into thinking that Stephen Fry and Prof Brian Cox supported them

[Frodo]

A majority of Britons (mainly the English beyond London) now support leaving the EU:

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source

[DavidB.]

From Cameron's perspective it is smart to do it this year. Governments are generally the least popular when they are halfway in their term, so holding it in 2017 would have the highest probability of the referendum being influenced by anti-government backlash, leading to a "leave" victory, which is obviously what Cameron tries to avoid. I had thought he would organize it in 2017 nonetheless, in order to wait until the migrant crisis would be properly solved and the EU's image somewhat less damaged. That would be a huge gamble anyway, for no one really knows when (and if) it will be solved.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The old rule on referendums is that the key figure is the one representing change; people who don't know either don't vote or vote to keep the status quo. Right now the change option is struggling to reach the mid 40s even in favourable polls (and is well down in the 30s in unfavourable ones).

[swl]

http://openeurope.org.uk/blog/eu-wargames-simulating-the-negotiations-that-will-determine-britains-place-in-europe/
Open Europe summary of the negotiations taking place between the UK and the rest of the EU:

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[politicallefty]

I know this is something the US Government will absolutely stay out of, but would a UK exit of the EU force a strengthening of US-UK ties? (I realize there have been some comments against leaving by some US officials, but I highly doubt the US Government would isolate the UK upon a Brexit.) There would almost undoubtedly be some economic repercussions for leaving. I have to wonder whether or not a UK-US FTA could possibly be in the cards. Certainly on our side, Congress would easily approve such an agreement.

[Frodo]

Europe offers Britain a deal to stay in the E.U.

By Karla Adam
February 2

LONDON —

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[Frodo]

Looks as if Britons have low expectations for what their Prime Minister can achieve:

Britons expect a bad deal for EU membership: poll

By:   CYNTHIA KROET
2/14/16, 11:11 AM CET

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[Clyde1998]

The old rule on referendums is that the key figure is the one representing change; people who don't know either don't vote or vote to keep the status quo. Right now the change option is struggling to reach the mid 40s even in favourable polls (and is well down in the 30s in unfavourable ones).

Correct. In the Scottish Independence Referendum, those who said that they wouldn't vote broke 80-20 to No and those who said they didn't know (the day before the vote) broke 56-44 to No [Based on the YouGov Figures]. In the IndyRef, people saying they'll vote Yes broke 98-2 to Yes and people saying they'll vote No broke 99-1 to No.

Using these breakdowns for the last YouGov poll on the EU membership referendum - Remain 36%; Leave 45%; WNV 2%; DK 17% - it breaks Remain 48%; Leave 52%. The leave vote is down by 4% on the "remove the Don't Knows" figure. Although it's not enough to cost the Leave campaign the lead.
Wales YouGov Poll
Remain 37% (-3)
Leave 45% (+3)
WNV 3% (-2)
DK 16% (+2)

Remove Don't Knows: Remain 45%; Leave 55%.
IndyRef DK/WNV Break: Remain 48%; Leave 52%.
Scotland YouGov Poll
Remain 55% (+4)
Leave 28% (-3)
WNV 2% (±0)
DK 16% (+1)

Remove Don't Knows: Remain 66%; Leave 34%.
IndyRef DK/WNV Break: Remain 66%; Leave 34%.

[Phony Moderate]

Starting to think that it could actually happen...

[Clyde1998]

Starting to think that it could actually happen...

It wouldn't surprise me, especially if Cameron can't get a good deal from the EU. Notably, Scotland's support for staying in the EU has increased, while Wales and England's support is falling. Would Scotland be happy to keep the status quo? The three polls I mentioned were conducted after the announcement regarding negotiations.

The Ipsos Mori poll in Scotland suggested that the UK leaving the EU against the wishes of the Scottish people would increase support for independence by 5% (a 10% swing to Yes), when compared to the current situation.

What surprises me is that Wales appears to be the same as the UK as a whole in EU support. Anyone have any idea what Northern Ireland thinks? In a close race NI could decide it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The fact is that presently only the usual obsessives care so polling is pretty much meaningless even if the vote is possibly near.

[ObserverIE]

Anyone have any idea what Northern Ireland thinks? In a close race NI could decide it.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/debateni/bill-white/how-will-northern-ireland-vote-in-the-upcoming-eu-referendum-34176966.html

[Frodo]

Cameron hails EU deal to give Britain 'special status', battle looms

By Jan Strupczewski and Elizabeth Piper
7 hours ago

BRUSSELS (Reuters) -

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[Јas]

Referendum date: 23 June

[YL]

It looks like most Cabinet ministers are coming down on the "Remain" side, with Michael Gove and IDS being the most prominent exceptions.

Predictably the right-wing media are gathering on the "Leave" side.  The Mail, the Express and the Telegraph certainly are.

[cp]

Boris and Zac Goldsmith to campaign for Leave side

No surprise, really, though I wonder how much support this will cost Goldsmith in the mayoral contest.

[Phony Moderate]

So the political career of either Boris or Dave may very well end in four months time.

[Phony Moderate]

Utterly bizarre statement being made by Boris now, even by his standards. Seems to think that a Leave vote will lead to another round of negotiations.