United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Phony Moderate]

I recall them also taking back some poll during the general election campaign. And for what it's worth, the election result turned out to be similar to what the said poll was showing.

[SATW]

how and why is john major still relevant?

[Phony Moderate]

how and why is john major still relevant?

Well, the other three living PMs are Blair, Brown and Cameron.

[rob in cal]

  Have the postal ballots been sent out yet?  And what % of the electorate would be expected to vote by mail?

[ChrisDR68]

  Have the postal ballots been sent out yet?  And what % of the electorate would be expected to vote by mail?

I got my postal ballot paper last Tuesday, filled it in on Thursday and posted it on my work to work  Friday morning.

No idea what the percentage of votes will be by post though although I bet it's a bit like home shopping with groceries... growing in popularity all the time.

[IceAgeComing]

Survation just released a Scottish poll: 51% Remain, 21% Leave.  I did some awful maths and removed the undecided voters from the equation (although there are more of them than there are Leave supporters) and got 71% support for Remain which is the high end of where I think we'll end up here.  It all depends how those don't knows split, and what I've read about previous referendums undecided voters are generally likely to swing towards the status quo the longer they stay undecided before polling day.

There was also a Welsh poll that dropped: 41% for both Remain and Leave which is in line with all other Welsh polling, and suggests that England and Wales will vote similarly.  Its a rather old poll that they've only just released (ended last Friday) and although not a great deal has happened (bar the Farage/Cameron thing last night which I refused to watch) that's not too great since I'm sure a few of the UK-wide polls had field dates more recent than that.

[Phony Moderate]

I wonder how much correlation will be seen in London between the Remain/Sadiq vote and the Leave/Zac vote.

[Hnv1]

I wonder how much correlation will be seen in London between the Remain/Sadiq vote and the Leave/Zac vote.

I think posh west end areas from Fitzrovia westwards would vote remain. Cetral\North London will be heavily remain and for the rest the closer you get to the home counties leave will prevail. I guess Romford and such will be >70% leave considering they're all daft West Ham pickles 

[Zanas]

The vote's date should be put in the thread's title for easier visibility.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Very curious now as to what the turnout will be; on the one hand this referendum hasn't gripped the public imagination at all (even less than a GE does actually) but on the other people do seem to understand that it's important.

[Vega]

Very curious now as to what the turnout will be; on the one hand this referendum hasn't gripped the public imagination at all (even less than a GE does actually) but on the other people do seem to understand that it's important.

Would you say that low turnout favours one side or another? It seems that it would be better for the more passionate side, which, appears to be Leave.

[ChrisDR68]

Very curious now as to what the turnout will be; on the one hand this referendum hasn't gripped the public imagination at all (even less than a GE does actually) but on the other people do seem to understand that it's important.

Would you say that low turnout favours one side or another? It seems that it would be better for the more passionate side, which, appears to be Leave.

That's the theory.

Older voters are more in favour of Brexit and are more likely to vote. Presumably that's why Cameron has extended the voter registration deadline (in order for more of the younger voters to register).

He's absolutely shameless

No wonder a lot of his own backbenchers gave him a hard time today at PM's questions. Richly deserved imo.

[Phony Moderate]

I'm going to go ahead and predict it will beat the 2001 GE turnout.

[parochial boy]

Very curious now as to what the turnout will be; on the one hand this referendum hasn't gripped the public imagination at all (even less than a GE does actually) but on the other people do seem to understand that it's important.

Would you say that low turnout favours one side or another? It seems that it would be better for the more passionate side, which, appears to be Leave.

That's the theory.

Older voters are more in favour of Brexit and are more likely to vote. Presumably that's why Cameron has extended the voter registration deadline (in order for more of the younger voters to register).

He's absolutely shameless

No wonder a lot of his own backbenchers gave him a hard time today at PM's questions. Richly deserved imo.

The deadline was extended because the registration website crashed for the last two hours before the wind closed. That is before you even get on to the ridiculous backwardness of the new requirement for individual registration.

There also does seem to be an irony in the Brexit gang complaining about people having the vote seeing their a major part of their campaign is about how "undemocratic" Brussels is.

[Phony Moderate]

Regarding turnout, this story has been going around today. But they probably take exactly the same precautions in general elections.

[ChrisDR68]

The deadline was extended because the registration website crashed for the last two hours before the wind closed. That is before you even get on to the ridiculous backwardness of the new requirement for individual registration.

There also does seem to be an irony in the Brexit gang complaining about people having the vote seeing their a major part of their campaign is about how "undemocratic" Brussels is.

The website crashed for precisely 1 hour and 45 minutes last night so obviously you extend the deadline by 48 hours even though it's set in law. Stands to reason really.

Cameron and the rest of the Remainers are completely transparent in how they're manipulating this referendum.

[IceAgeComing]

i don't see how extending the period to allow people to register to vote is somehow a bad thing; I don't see why we can't have a system that either gets rid of the whole registration system or lets people register on polling day like some other countries have.  More people voting should always be seen as a good thing...

Arguably the decision to exclude EU citizens from the referendum (which was exceptional, in every other referendum they've been allowed to vote) was the only "manipulation" that occurred, and that's not exactly going to help remain.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Regarding turnout, this story has been going around today. But they probably take exactly the same precautions in general elections.

And if you read the article you note that they note that it isn't a prediction of turnout, just them being careful. But of course the headline implies otherwise (for clickbait purposes of course).

[MaxQue]

The deadline was extended because the registration website crashed for the last two hours before the wind closed. That is before you even get on to the ridiculous backwardness of the new requirement for individual registration.

There also does seem to be an irony in the Brexit gang complaining about people having the vote seeing their a major part of their campaign is about how "undemocratic" Brussels is.

The website crashed for precisely 1 hour and 45 minutes last night so obviously you extend the deadline by 48 hours even though it's set in law. Stands to reason really.

Cameron and the rest of the Remainers are completely transparent in how they're manipulating this referendum.

Why would they bother pandering to your ilk? You'll spend the day after the election claiming it was stolen, when it's just the will of the population. All the population, not just old white guys. UK is more than them, thankfully.

[Zinneke]

David Cameron effectively resigned when he said the "Great Britain, not Nigel Farage's Little England"

Little England is his backbench majority.

[Angel of Death]

The polls may indicate a neck-and-neck race, but the prediction markets are quite bullish on Remain winning.

[ChrisDR68]

Lord Bamford's letter to his employees from June 7th:





His last sentence sums up this referendum for me:

Finally, if the democratic decision after 23rd June is to remain, it will be interesting to see how the UK fits into the EU of the future, given that fiscal and political union remains it's ultimate goal.

That's the crux of it for me. The European project has had this federalising ambition from the get go and our being a member of it for 43 years hasn't changed that one iota

[Tender Branson]

Regarding turnout, this story has been going around today. But they probably take exactly the same precautions in general elections.

The "certain to vote" % (10/10) in the latest polls is only 70% though ...

I think it will be more like 70-75% in the end.

[Phony Moderate]

Regarding turnout, this story has been going around today. But they probably take exactly the same precautions in general elections.

The "certain to vote" % (10/10) in the latest polls is only 70% though ...

I think it will be more like 70-75% in the end.

Which would still be the highest (by some distance) UK-wide turnout this century.

There may be many cases of people finally being able to convince their normally apolitical family members/friends to turn out on this occasion.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I would be... careful... about reading too much into figures of that sort. The last GE the final MORI poll saw over 80% of respondents claiming to be 'absolutely certain' to vote and the final YouGov 76%.