United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[IceAgeComing]

I've found an article from Peter Kellner saying that in every UK referendum bar one there's been a late swing to the status quo - the only one that didn't was the 97 Scotland devolution referendum, which is a big of a special case.  If this happens again its good for the remain side since things are still close enough that a late swing puts Remain clearly ahead; although of course its not certain.  This is why I think the bookies haven't shifted that much even though leave are now ahead since there's precedent for a shift back the week before polling day.

In terms of turnout; the last Scottish poll I saw before the last General Election had certain to vote figures of around 85%; which was much higher than the eventual Scottish turnout.

[Joe Republic]

Is there a recent poll broken down by (current) party allegiance?  Or party they voted for last year, or something.

I wonder which way UKIP voters are favoring??

[YL]

Is there a recent poll broken down by (current) party allegiance?  Or party they voted for last year, or something.

I wonder which way UKIP voters are favoring??

YouGov, fieldswork 5-6 June, has, on 2015 vote:

Con: Remain 39 Leave 50
Lab: Remain 61 Leave 26
Lib Dem: Remain 61 Leave 28
UKIP: Remain 5 Leave 91

[Joe Republic]

Interesting, thanks.  I'd have expected LDs to be stronger Remainers than Labour, rather than the same?  And 5% of UKIP voters don't seem to understand the question.

[Mr. Morden]

Interesting, thanks.  I'd have expected LDs to be stronger Remainers than Labour, rather than the same?  And 5% of UKIP voters don't seem to understand the question.

I would like to know the demographic profile of that 5%. 

[Beezer]

Probably MEPs who want to keep their job.

[Phony Moderate]

There are SNPers who oppose independence, don't forget.

[parochial boy]

Is no-one surprised at how high the lib dem out vote is? pretty much identical to Labour. And they have always been the most enthusiastically pro-Europe party.

[ChrisDR68]

Interesting, thanks.  I'd have expected LDs to be stronger Remainers than Labour, rather than the same?  And 5% of UKIP voters don't seem to understand the question.

Well... speaking of personal experience my sister is one of them. She's worried about immigration and can't stand Labour or the Tories so she votes UKIP as a protest.

On this referendum she's been taken in by all the economic scare stories so she's almost certain to vote Remain.

Don't worry I've had a go at her several times pointing out the illogical and contradictory positions she holds but she says she wants stability more than controls on migration (although obviously she wants both).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But again I really wouldn't overanalyse poll internals. Particularly YouGov ones.

[rob in cal]

   Chris, keep working on your sister, I hope you turn her around.  Has the leave side mentioned the positive precedent of Switzerland, a non-EU state that is doing just fine without membership?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

   Chris, keep working on your sister, I hope you turn her around.  Has the leave side mentioned the positive precedent of Switzerland, a non-EU state that is doing just fine without membership?

I dunno, it has a very high HIV infection rate and Mswati is running it into the ground.

[Phony Moderate]

ORB poll: Remain 45, Leave 55

[jaichind]

ORB poll: Remain 45, Leave 55

Another 1% drop in GBP as soon as this poll came out

[Joe Republic]

  Chris, keep working on your sister, I hope you turn her around.  Has the leave side mentioned the positive precedent of Switzerland, a non-EU state that is doing just fine without membership?

Switzerland has adopted many key EU laws over the years, such as freedom of movement and various economic regulations, in order to further smoothen trade between the two entities.  And how much of a say has Switzerland had in any of those laws' original passage?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Could polling companies (who are ORB anyway?) and/or the media please not edit out undecided voters when asking about a referendum?

[afleitch]

We are living in a geriocracy.

[Joe Republic]

We are living in a geriocracy.

Nice to think that most of the people voting for Brexit won't be around in about 20 years to share the consequences...

[Phony Moderate]

Both options have dire consequences. It's just a matter of what fits your tastes.

It is somewhat amusing though that the older generation are the ones rallying against the establishment, for radical change etc.

[ChrisDR68]

Could polling companies (who are ORB anyway?) and/or the media please not edit out undecided voters when asking about a referendum?

There have been similar online polls by the same company:

08-09 Jun Remain 45% Leave 55%
27-29 Apr Remain 49% Leave 51%
24-28 Mar Remain 51% Leave 49%
24-25 Feb Remain 48% Leave 52%
20-21 Jan Remain 52% Leave 48%

Maybe there's a trend when comparing the latest three of those polls.

Maybe

[Angel of Death]

There are SNPers who oppose independence, don't forget.

It's not exactly obscure knowledge that the SNP only became so huge after becoming more than a generic nationalist party and adopting an economically left-wing ideology. UKIP Remainers are clearly stranger creatures.

[Cassius]

We are living in a geriocracy.

Yes well if people of my age don't vote then that's their problem.

[Blair]

ugh this is actually happening

[Pandaguineapig]

This should of been a comfortable win for remain but now it looks like leave has an advantage because the remain camp is being run by complete idiots

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

This should of been a comfortable win for remain but now it looks like leave has an advantage because the remain camp is being run by complete idiots

Where do they find the incompetents who run referendum campaigns, that's what I wanna know.

I think the only thing that will swing back to Remain is a big concerted effort by a Lqbour figure. Sadly Corbyn doesn't have his heart in it.