United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership
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Author Topic: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership  (Read 175434 times)
Clyde1998
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« on: May 26, 2015, 11:57:37 AM »

It's going to happen in either 2016 or 2017.

Current Polling
YouGov (21-22 May)
Stay In - 44% (-1%)
Leave - 36% (N/C)
Changes compared to YouGov 8-9 May;
Excludes Northern Ireland


Excluding Don't Knows
Stay In - 55% (-1%)
Leave - 45% (+1%)

YouGov (19-21 May; Scotland)
Stay In - 54% (+2%)
Leave - 25% (-4%)
Changes compared to YouGov 29 Jan-2 Feb

Excluding Don't Knows

Stay In - 68% (+4%)
Leave - 32% (-4%)

YouGov (4-6 May; Wales)
Stay In - 47% (+3%)
Leave - 33% (-5%)
Changes compared to YouGov 24-27 Mar

Excluding Don't Knows

Stay In - 59% (+5%)
Leave - 41% (-5%)
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #1 on: May 26, 2015, 12:01:14 PM »

The vote will include: British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over 18 who are resident in the UK, along with UK nationals who have lived overseas for less than 15 years. Members of the House of Lords and Commonwealth citizens in Gibraltar will also be eligible, unlike in a general election. Citizens from EU countries - apart from Ireland, Malta and Cyprus - will not get a vote.

In other words:
If your a British citizen and you've lived in Australia for the last 13 years - you can vote.
If your not a British citizen and you've lived in the UK for the last 13 years - you can't vote.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #2 on: May 26, 2015, 12:12:54 PM »

I'm dreading this. Not the result, but the campaign. Ugh.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #3 on: May 26, 2015, 12:17:20 PM »

I'm dreading this. Not the result, but the campaign. Ugh.
George Osborne is going to be the leader of the "stay in Europe" campaign. Cry
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #4 on: May 26, 2015, 12:18:08 PM »

We don't know when it will be or exactly what we'll be voting on of course so we must be careful about how we speculate, but there's a decent chance that turnout could be rather low; say around 50% or so.
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afleitch
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« Reply #5 on: May 26, 2015, 12:26:04 PM »

We don't know when it will be or exactly what we'll be voting on of course so we must be careful about how we speculate, but there's a decent chance that turnout could be rather low; say around 50% or so.

May 2016 is a better election window (Scotland, Wales, Norn Iron, London Mayor etc) than 2017 but it might be too soon. However now that Labour have rolled over and exposed it's fuzzy belly it might ease passage in time for that and also stops UKIP from fixing it's wheels in time to be a nuisance again.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #6 on: May 26, 2015, 12:28:43 PM »

We don't know when it will be or exactly what we'll be voting on of course so we must be careful about how we speculate, but there's a decent chance that turnout could be rather low; say around 50% or so.
There's talk that they might have it on the same day as the devolved parliament elections in 2016 - to increase turnout... They did the same for the AV referendum in 2011 - which had a very low turnout (40ish%).

Surely, the issue has to be big enough on it's own accord for there to be a vote on the subject - not attach it to other elections to get people to vote.

This is set to be the first election I can vote in - I already know how I'll vote... The sooner it's done, the better...
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CrabCake
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« Reply #7 on: May 26, 2015, 12:42:07 PM »

UKIP fixing itself would be a disaster for the anti-EU side. The party and its leader are both extremely polarising, they'll sink the vote.

Business are pushing for an earlier vote to get the uncertainty out of the way.
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Torie
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« Reply #8 on: May 26, 2015, 12:48:09 PM »

The vote will include: British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over 18 who are resident in the UK, along with UK nationals who have lived overseas for less than 15 years. Members of the House of Lords and Commonwealth citizens in Gibraltar will also be eligible, unlike in a general election. Citizens from EU countries - apart from Ireland, Malta and Cyprus - will not get a vote.

In other words:
If your a British citizen and you've lived in Australia for the last 13 years - you can vote.
If your not a British citizen and you've lived in the UK for the last 13 years - you can't vote.

What's so special about Cyprus and Malta?
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #9 on: May 26, 2015, 01:00:26 PM »

The vote will include: British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over 18 who are resident in the UK, along with UK nationals who have lived overseas for less than 15 years. Members of the House of Lords and Commonwealth citizens in Gibraltar will also be eligible, unlike in a general election. Citizens from EU countries - apart from Ireland, Malta and Cyprus - will not get a vote.

In other words:
If your a British citizen and you've lived in Australia for the last 13 years - you can vote.
If your not a British citizen and you've lived in the UK for the last 13 years - you can't vote.

What's so special about Cyprus and Malta?
They're in the "Commonwealth of Nations" - ie They used to be part of the British Empire.
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Torie
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« Reply #10 on: May 26, 2015, 02:43:02 PM »

The vote will include: British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over 18 who are resident in the UK, along with UK nationals who have lived overseas for less than 15 years. Members of the House of Lords and Commonwealth citizens in Gibraltar will also be eligible, unlike in a general election. Citizens from EU countries - apart from Ireland, Malta and Cyprus - will not get a vote.

In other words:
If your a British citizen and you've lived in Australia for the last 13 years - you can vote.
If your not a British citizen and you've lived in the UK for the last 13 years - you can't vote.

What's so special about Cyprus and Malta?
They're in the "Commonwealth of Nations" - ie They used to be part of the British Empire.

Is that not true of a host of other nations?
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bore
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« Reply #11 on: May 26, 2015, 03:32:23 PM »

The vote will include: British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over 18 who are resident in the UK, along with UK nationals who have lived overseas for less than 15 years. Members of the House of Lords and Commonwealth citizens in Gibraltar will also be eligible, unlike in a general election. Citizens from EU countries - apart from Ireland, Malta and Cyprus - will not get a vote.

In other words:
If your a British citizen and you've lived in Australia for the last 13 years - you can vote.
If your not a British citizen and you've lived in the UK for the last 13 years - you can't vote.

What's so special about Cyprus and Malta?
They're in the "Commonwealth of Nations" - ie They used to be part of the British Empire.

Is that not true of a host of other nations?

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=member+states+of+the+commonwealth+of+nations
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #12 on: May 26, 2015, 03:37:37 PM »
« Edited: May 26, 2015, 03:49:00 PM by BaconBacon96 »

Why is Scotland more EU friendly than the rest of the UK?
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afleitch
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« Reply #13 on: May 26, 2015, 03:53:52 PM »

Why is Scotland more EU friendly than the rest of the UK?

It's questionable if we are; when it actually comes to a vote I think the difference will be negligible,but most polls over the past few decades never mind the past few years suggest that we are more receptive to the EU, which is quite a turnaround from 1975. It's worth noting is that the perception is that anti-EU rhetoric goes hand in hand with Little Englandism so that might explain things.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #14 on: May 26, 2015, 04:14:01 PM »

Why is Scotland more EU friendly than the rest of the UK?
In most topics for the EU were probably not, but the immigration issue is where the main issue lies. Scots are, generally, more open to immigration than the English - particularity the people in the South-East and East of England.

There's also a trend with age - the younger you are, the more likely you are to be pro-EU. I don't know if Scotland has a younger population, but that could be a reason why the polling figures are massively different.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #15 on: May 26, 2015, 04:44:34 PM »

We don't know when it will be or exactly what we'll be voting on of course so we must be careful about how we speculate, but there's a decent chance that turnout could be rather low; say around 50% or so.

You would have thought that if turnout is in that range that would probably help the out campaign as their voters are likely to be more engaged and motivated over this major national issue.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #16 on: May 26, 2015, 04:45:18 PM »

We don't know when it will be or exactly what we'll be voting on of course so we must be careful about how we speculate, but there's a decent chance that turnout could be rather low; say around 50% or so.

You would have thought that if turnout is in that range that would probably help the out campaign as their voters are likely to be more engaged and motivated over this major national issue.
Would a 50% turnout be a mandate for change though?
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bore
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« Reply #17 on: May 26, 2015, 04:46:36 PM »

This poll seems to suggest the numbers on immigration are roughly the same.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #18 on: May 26, 2015, 05:13:27 PM »

This poll seems to suggest the numbers on immigration are roughly the same.
Hmm... I think that's only because of the way the media presents the issue. There's hardly any immigration into Scotland when compared to the South of England - but Scotland has to watch the UK-wide news stories that over it. I think it's only people saying immigration is a problem, because that's all they're seeing on the media - if you were to talk to someone about the issue, then it wouldn't been seen as a problem (with most people).

Tthe importance of "solving" immigration is much lower in Scotland than in the rUK. The last YouGov poll to ask that question had immigration at 42% in the UK, but only 31% in Scotland (very small sample, however). It's the same as devolution give or take in Scotland. It's behind Health and the Economy in rUK and a long way behind those two in Scotland.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #19 on: May 26, 2015, 06:42:18 PM »

Immigration is less of a salient issue in Scotland because has had no mass immigration since the 19th century and no non-white mass immigration ever.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #20 on: May 26, 2015, 06:46:33 PM »

You would have thought that if turnout is in that range that would probably help the out campaign as their voters are likely to be more engaged and motivated over this major national issue.

There is indeed just a slight chance that this might turn into a clusterfyck of that nature, yes.
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Harry Hayfield
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« Reply #21 on: May 27, 2015, 04:16:25 AM »

In today's Queen Speech, there will be an announcement confirming the bill that will start the referendum process and it is expected that by this evening the formal question will be published. As for myself, I will be voting whatever answer keeps us in the European Union and am waiting to find out who the lead campaign group will be for that opinion so that I can join them and campaign for that same vote.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #22 on: May 27, 2015, 09:36:26 AM »

In today's Queen Speech, there will be an announcement confirming the bill that will start the referendum process and it is expected that by this evening the formal question will be published. As for myself, I will be voting whatever answer keeps us in the European Union and am waiting to find out who the lead campaign group will be for that opinion so that I can join them and campaign for that same vote.
I'm guessing that the question will be "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?", or something similar to that.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #23 on: May 27, 2015, 12:53:27 PM »

Immigration is less of a salient issue in Scotland because has had no mass immigration since the 19th century and no non-white mass immigration ever.
I have a rather different theory on why UKIP and to a lesser extent Anti-Europeanism fail in Scotland... (Afleitch's point about Little Englandism is more a point but not yet on the mark I think.)
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bore
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« Reply #24 on: May 27, 2015, 01:42:19 PM »

I think it became pretty clear in the election that a lot of the UKIP vote in England and Wales was a protest, inherited in part from the Lib Dems, but in Scotland there was the SNP don't have the problems of the lib dems, so protest voters could vote for them and not ukip, so that might be a part of it.
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