United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Harry Hayfield]

The question is: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?”

According to Mike Smithson of Political Betting.com, the onus is on the NO camp to get people to vote against a statement (but he points out that NO won the AV referendum and the Independence referendum)

[Clyde1998]

The question is: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?”

According to Mike Smithson of Political Betting.com, the onus is on the NO camp to get people to vote against a statement (but he points out that NO won the AV referendum and the Independence referendum)

I was right about the question.

This will be the second time in UK referendum history that the Yes option is for the status quo.

The Yes/Agree option has won a referendum in the UK 67% of the time (the 1973 NI referendum wasn't a Yes/No question):

The Yes/Agree option won the:
European Communities membership referendum, 1975 (Status Quo) - 17.2% lead
Scottish devolution referendum, 1979 - 1.6% lead
Scottish devolution referendum, 1997 (Parliament) - 24.3% lead
Scottish devolution referendum, 1997 (Tax Powers) - 13.5% lead
Welsh devolution referendum, 1997 - 0.3% lead
Greater London Authority referendum, 1998 - 22.0% lead
Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreement referendum, 1998 - 21.1% lead
Welsh devolution referendum, 2011 - 13.5% lead

The No/Disagree option won the:
Welsh devolution referendum, 1979 (Status Quo) - 29.7% lead
North East England devolution referendum, 2004 (Status Quo) - 27.9% lead
Alternative Vote referendum, 2011 (Status Quo) - 17.9% lead
Scottish independence referendum, 2014 (Status Quo) - 5.3% lead

Lead calculated as swing required to change the result of the referendum, as a fall in one vote share requires a rise in the other vote share.

What's interesting, is that there is rarely a close referendum in the UK - only three have had less than a 10% lead.

[doktorb]

Source: http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2015-16/europeanunionreferendum.html

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[Clyde1998]

Source: http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2015-16/europeanunionreferendum.html

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Why is Northern Ireland only one counting area and not a number of smaller areas?

[Tetro Kornbluth]

Gibraltar gets a vote but do Jersey, Guernsey, Isle of Mann, etc? Would seem grossly undemocratic if they didn't given the topic.

[Clyde1998]

Gibraltar gets a vote but do Jersey, Guernsey, Isle of Mann, etc? Would seem grossly undemocratic if they didn't given the topic.

Gibraltar is fully integrated into the EU as part of the UK, where as the Crown Dependencies aren't.

[YL]

Gibraltar gets a vote but do Jersey, Guernsey, Isle of Mann, etc? Would seem grossly undemocratic if they didn't given the topic.

Gibraltar is fully integrated into the EU as part of the UK, where as the Crown Dependencies aren't.

It's part of the EU, but not integrated into the UK: it's a British Overseas Territory.  The other British Overseas Territories and the Crown Dependencies aren't part of the EU, and don't get a vote in European elections, but Gibraltar is and does (as part of the South West region).  OTOH, like the other Overseas Territories and the Crown Dependencies, it isn't represented in the Commons.

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I think this is because there's an elections office for all of Northern Ireland rather than local government being responsible for elections as in the rest of the UK.

[Clyde1998]

Gibraltar gets a vote but do Jersey, Guernsey, Isle of Mann, etc? Would seem grossly undemocratic if they didn't given the topic.

Gibraltar is fully integrated into the EU as part of the UK, where as the Crown Dependencies aren't.

It's part of the EU, but not integrated into the UK: it's a British Overseas Territory.  The other British Overseas Territories and the Crown Dependencies aren't part of the EU, and don't get a vote in European elections, but Gibraltar is and does (as part of the South West region).  OTOH, like the other Overseas Territories and the Crown Dependencies, it isn't represented in the Commons.

I meant it's in the EU as part of the UK membership - as opposed to being fully integrated into the UK.

[ingemann]

The vote will include: British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over 18 who are resident in the UK, along with UK nationals who have lived overseas for less than 15 years. Members of the House of Lords and Commonwealth citizens in Gibraltar will also be eligible, unlike in a general election. Citizens from EU countries - apart from Ireland, Malta and Cyprus - will not get a vote.

In other words:
If your a British citizen and you've lived in Australia for the last 13 years - you can vote.
If your not a British citizen and you've lived in the UK for the last 13 years - you can't vote.

Well I do think that this should be something British citizens should decide, citizens of other countries can always leave if the vote end in a disaster, but honestly I'm not happy about the whole diaspora voting, people living outside a country don't suffer the consequences of their vote. You could argue that British citizens in other EU countries should be allowed to vote, simply because it will have significant effect on them.

[ChrisDR68]

Given that "ever closer union" between the Eurozone countries is inevitable in order to make the Euro work properly could associate member status be a realistic compromise option for the UK moving forward as explained in this article?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20875755 

In my view a federal superstate involving the countries in the Eurozone is going to happen sooner or later and it's not in the UK's interests to be absorbed into such a structure due to the loss of democratic accountability (you can't vote out a distant European government) and the loss of economic sovereignty (as has been demonstrated in many Mediterranean countries during the current Euro crisis where they have been unable to devalue in order to kick start their economies and have been forced into internal devaluations instead which are much more painful and take much longer to work).

Associate member status may well suit other countries in the EU that are not in the Eurozone as well such as Sweden, Hungary, Denmark and the Czech Republic. 

[Clyde1998]

The vote will include: British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over 18 who are resident in the UK, along with UK nationals who have lived overseas for less than 15 years. Members of the House of Lords and Commonwealth citizens in Gibraltar will also be eligible, unlike in a general election. Citizens from EU countries - apart from Ireland, Malta and Cyprus - will not get a vote.

In other words:
If your a British citizen and you've lived in Australia for the last 13 years - you can vote.
If your not a British citizen and you've lived in the UK for the last 13 years - you can't vote.

Well I do think that this should be something British citizens should decide, citizens of other countries can always leave if the vote end in a disaster, but honestly I'm not happy about the whole diaspora voting, people living outside a country don't suffer the consequences of their vote. You could argue that British citizens in other EU countries should be allowed to vote, simply because it will have significant effect on them.

I think there would've been uproar if we said people could only vote in the Scottish Independence Referendum if they were Scottish. (In fact, Yes would've won with 52% if that had happened, apparently). Ironically, some EU citizens voted no as they didn't want to risk leaving the EU...

What they're doing makes a vote to leave the EU more likely. I think all the people (16+) living in the UK should be able to vote, and no-one living outside the UK (excluding active military) should be able to vote.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Maybe this will be the start of French style "overseas constituencies".

[ingemann]

The vote will include: British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over 18 who are resident in the UK, along with UK nationals who have lived overseas for less than 15 years. Members of the House of Lords and Commonwealth citizens in Gibraltar will also be eligible, unlike in a general election. Citizens from EU countries - apart from Ireland, Malta and Cyprus - will not get a vote.

In other words:
If your a British citizen and you've lived in Australia for the last 13 years - you can vote.
If your not a British citizen and you've lived in the UK for the last 13 years - you can't vote.

Well I do think that this should be something British citizens should decide, citizens of other countries can always leave if the vote end in a disaster, but honestly I'm not happy about the whole diaspora voting, people living outside a country don't suffer the consequences of their vote. You could argue that British citizens in other EU countries should be allowed to vote, simply because it will have significant effect on them.

I think there would've been uproar if we said people could only vote in the Scottish Independence Referendum if they were Scottish. (In fact, Yes would've won with 52% if that had happened, apparently). Ironically, some EU citizens voted no as they didn't want to risk leaving the EU...

The major difference are that there wasn't a separate Scottish citizenship, while there are a separate British citizenship. As such whether you're born in Scotland was secondary to whether you lived in Scotland, as Scots in the rest of UK would have kept their British citizenship. Through I wouldn't have supported other EU citizens right to vote for or against Scottish independence.

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I agree that letting the diaspora vote make it more likely that UK leave EU, and while I don't care much. I'm against that. But it's fundamental the right of a country's citizens to chose its future, not of foreign citizens.

[Simfan34]

Maybe this will be the start of French style "overseas constituencies".

Gibraltar is far too small to be a constituency, no?

[Јas]

Maybe this will be the start of French style "overseas constituencies".

Gibraltar is far too small to be a constituency, no?

Na h-Eileanan an Iar had a population of 27,684 at the 2011 census.

Gibraltar's population was estimated at 29,752 in 2011.

[Clyde1998]

TNS Scotland Poll:
Remain - 49%
Leave - 19%
Undecided - 26%

Excluding Undecided
Remain - 72%
Leave - 28%

[Tetro Kornbluth]

So anyone wishing to call it this far out? I'm bored so I'll give it a go.

I'll say that the UK will vote to stay in about 53-47 but the regional variation will be significant. Excluding Gibraltar where I imagine it will be a YES mega-landslide for all sorts of obvious reasons (and wouldn't it be the most hilarious thing evah if the gap was so small in the referendum that Gibraltar's vote actually swung it?) I'd say Scotland, of reasons of the lack of appeal of little England-ism and the fact that it really is a separate country these days, will have the strongest YES with about 2-1 at least in favour of staying.  The strongest regions for NO will be the Eastern region and the West and East Midlands and in particular Lincolnshire, East Anglia (apart from Cambridge and Norwich themselves) and the Black Country. In England I suspect the strongest YES areas will be inner London and areas with large number of graduates whether Tory or Labour voters by inclination. They will do particularly well in small cities around the south, especially with those universities, so Brighton, Oxford, Cambridge, Norwich, Milton Keynes, Reading, etc. YES will win the more prosperous parts of the South East and Home Counties (such as Surrey, Berkshire and Oxfordshire) but NO will be favoured in its more downmarket parts and where UKIP have done well and white flight is an issue (so Essex and Kent). And, assuming that UK patterns replicate Irish patterns viz. support on the EU, I suspect that anywhere with lots of farmers and where agriculture is the dominant industry would lean YES, so North Yorkshire and Large parts of the West Country and Wales. The Welsh speaking parts of Wales in particular would be strong YES areas. In regards to the cities, I suspect that YES will do better in the bigger metropolitan centres such as Liverpool, Manchester, and Birmingham but will be crushed in the more provincial centres with an industrial and/or military background with cities such as Hull, Stoke, Portsmouth, Bournemouth and Plymouth recording some strong votes for the NO. In the major centres I mentioned I think there is a good chance that YES will correlate with class to a good extent so good YES votes in Solihull, Trafford, the Wirral and Cheshire generally but balanced with strong NO's in the less prosperous, whiter boroughs such as Walsall, Rochdale and Tameside. The exception to this might be Merseyside as a campaign associated with English Nationalism will probably not get very far there. Overall, votes will higher among more Tory inclined voters with low turnouts in places like the Welsh Valleys and the old Yorkshire/East Midlands mining belt. This was also the case in 1975. In Northern Ireland sectarianism as always will be an important factor but, also as probably in 1975, there will be enough farmers, big house unionists and liberal Alliance voters just to give YES the win narrowly. 

As a base line prediction I'll go with:
Most YES - Gibraltar (excluding that, East Dunbartonshire, in England: Oxford)
Most NO - North East Lincolnshire

[Simfan34]

Maybe this will be the start of French style "overseas constituencies".

Gibraltar is far too small to be a constituency, no?

Na h-Eileanan an Iar had a population of 27,684 at the 2011 census.

Gibraltar's population was estimated at 29,752 in 2011.

Really? Didn't know that it was that small.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

House of Lords may amend the Bill to give 16 year olds the vote. The Commons defeated a Labour led amendment to lower the age, but the heavy Liberal presence in the Lords could scupper Tory resistance.

This should be quite interesting to see how a Conservative government reacts with an unfriendly upper house. This must be the first time in history.

[ChrisDR68]

So anyone wishing to call it this far out? I'm bored so I'll give it a go.

I'll say that the UK will vote to stay in about 53-47

I think it will be more comfortable than this. Perhaps 60-40 for staying in.

The annoying thing about the EU debate (I'm watching a re-run of Question Time as they talk about this subject as I type this) is that it's about the wrong things in my view.

It should be about the tunnel vision that most of the European political class have about creating a federal European superstate. Something they have had since the 1950's.

Is this a good idea?
Is it a democratic idea?
Should the UK and the other EU countries outside the Eurozone join this federal superstate?

Those are the questions that should be being debated.

Instead we get talk about whether we feel European or not, being or not being little Englanders and about immigration.

It's all very frustrating

[Phony Moderate]

Lots of Eurosceptic shouts from the Left in recent days...could make this more interesting.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

To be fair (in regards to Chris) it seems that the eurosceptics are just as guilty of overplaying the immigration card. I can't blame them - immigration is a tangible concept that inflames debate; matters of EU intergration is dull, overly wordy/constitutional and only enjoyed (on both sides) by about 1% of the population..

[Helsinkian]

Lots of Eurosceptic shouts from the Left in recent days...could make this more interesting.

Here's one: The left must put Britain's EU withdrawal on the agenda (Owen Jones/Guardian)

[ChrisDR68]

To be fair (in regards to Chris) it seems that the eurosceptics are just as guilty of overplaying the immigration card. I can't blame them - immigration is a tangible concept that inflames debate; matters of EU intergration is dull, overly wordy/constitutional and only enjoyed (on both sides) by about 1% of the population..

I agree that the public aren't particularly interested on the question of EU integration but... if you look at Greece this issue does matter a lot although the Greeks don't seem to understand that the underlying problem for their country is that they have the Euro (which means they can't externally devalue to make their economy more competitive) which they shouldn't have joined in the first place.

The Euro is a political project intended to push a federal European superstate forwards. It wasn't adopted for economic reasons. Something a lot of European politicians quite openly admit to as they themselves are committed federalists.

[Blair]

To be fair (in regards to Chris) it seems that the eurosceptics are just as guilty of overplaying the immigration card. I can't blame them - immigration is a tangible concept that inflames debate; matters of EU intergration is dull, overly wordy/constitutional and only enjoyed (on both sides) by about 1% of the population..

I agree that the public aren't particularly interested on the question of EU integration but... if you look at Greece this issue does matter a lot although the Greeks don't seem to understand that the underlying problem for their country is that they have the Euro (which means they can't externally devalue to make their economy more competitive) which they shouldn't have joined in the first place.

The Euro is a political project intended to push a federal European superstate forwards. It wasn't adopted for economic reasons. Something a lot of European politicians quite openly admit to as they themselves are committed federalists.

A Europeon superstate is geopolitically our best option, it's that or using our reputation for the next 50 years until someone realizes our power is based on A) A weak banking sector B) Languauge C) The Falklands. Afghanistan showed how weak our nation is, and I'm happy to jump onto the EU wagon