United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[ChrisDR68]

So the political career of either Boris or Dave may very well end in four months time.

Doubt it.

I think his reasoning is that being anti-EU is very popular with the Tory grass roots and whatever the referendum outcome that will leave him in good stead to win the party leadership election whenever that is.

That said whenever I've heard Boris talk about the EU he's always been anti ever closer union and the setting up of a federal superstate so it's not a surprise to me he's come out in favour of Brexit.

[jaichind]

What will be Labour's position?  While I am the majority of Labour's MPs are pro-EU I recall that Corbyn himself has some anti-EU views.

[ag]

More interestingly, what is the SNP position. Will they propose an independent Scotland in EU referendum?

[YL]

What will be Labour's position?  While I am the majority of Labour's MPs are pro-EU I recall that Corbyn himself has some anti-EU views.

In the Observer, 21 February:
Cameron’s deal is the wrong one: but Britain must stay in Europe, by Jeremy Corbyn.

There are a handful of "Leave" Labour MPs; Frank Field (Birkenhead) is one name I've seen in the last few days.

[Јas]

More interestingly, what is the SNP position. Will they propose an independent Scotland in EU referendum?

In the event of an exit vote, it would appear so.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/ex-snp-leader-warns-nicola-sturgeon-over-eu-and-fresh-scots-referendum-1-4035288



For the other regional parties, the In/Out position appears to be:

In	Out
Sinn Féin	Democratic Unionists
Plaid Cymru	Traditional Unionist Voice
Scottish Greens
SDLP
Alliance
Greens (NI)
NI21
Gibraltar Socialist Labour
Gibraltar Social Democrats
Gibraltar Liberals

The UUP haven't declared yet - but should do so soon.

I haven't seen a position from Mebyon Kernow - but I'd guess they're In.
Yorkshire First are not taking a position.
No idea about Llais Gwynedd.

[jaichind]

More interestingly, what is the SNP position. Will they propose an independent Scotland in EU referendum?

It is clear SNP is for Yes.  Deep down they might want the rest of UK to vote No so they have an excuse to have another Scotland Independence Referendum which if it takes place right after the Brixit Referendum they might win.

[Clyde1998]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/george-galloway-accuses-bbc-of-being-misleading-in-awkward-eu-interview-a6889176.html

George Galloway is making friends, as usual...

[Clyde1998]

More interestingly, what is the SNP position. Will they propose an independent Scotland in EU referendum?

The SNP have made it clear that it would lead to another referendum. Current polls show that it would cause a big enough swing to put the Independence campaign in Scotland over the 50% mark.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/bookies-slash-odds-scottish-independence-7415275

[ChrisDR68]

More interestingly, what is the SNP position. Will they propose an independent Scotland in EU referendum?

The SNP have made it clear that it would lead to another referendum. Current polls show that it would cause a big enough swing to put the Independence campaign in Scotland over the 50% mark.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/bookies-slash-odds-scottish-independence-7415275

I think Scotland will leave the UK sooner or later anyway for historical reasons. The EU referendum may be the catalyst but it looks to me as if it's inevitable.

[ag]

More interestingly, what is the SNP position. Will they propose an independent Scotland in EU referendum?

The SNP have made it clear that it would lead to another referendum. Current polls show that it would cause a big enough swing to put the Independence campaign in Scotland over the 50% mark.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/bookies-slash-odds-scottish-independence-7415275

Is this becoming an issue in England? How much does an average English voter realize this?

[YL]

The Guardian has a list of MPs and their stances:
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/ng-interactive/2016/feb/23/how-will-your-mp-vote-in-the-eu-referendum

The following Labour MPs are listed as "Leave":
Ronnie Campbell (Blyth Valley)
Frank Field (Birkenhead)
Roger Godsiff (Birmingham Hall Green)
Kate Hoey (Vauxhall)
Kelvin Hopkins (Luton North)
Khalid Mahmood (Birmingham Perry Barr)
Graham Stringer (Blackley & Broughton)
Gisela Stuart (Birmingham Edgbaston)

(This looks to be at least as much right-wing mavericks as the traditional left.  I presume the concentration in Birmingham is just a coincidence.)

The following Labour MPs are listed as "Undeclared":
John Cryer (Leyton & Wanstead)
Natascha Engel (North East Derbyshire)
Ian Lavery (Wansbeck)
John Mann (Bassetlaw)
Grahame Morris (Easington)
Dennis Skinner (Bolsover)
John Spellar (Warley)

All SDLP, Sinn Féin, SNP, Lib Dem, Plaid, Green and Independent MPs are listed as "Remain"; all UUP MPs are listed as "Not declared".

[ChrisDR68]

Bit surprised Gisela Stewart is a Eurosceptic considering she was born in Germany

[King of Kensington]

In the Observer, 21 February:
Cameron’s deal is the wrong one: but Britain must stay in Europe, by Jeremy Corbyn.

So basically the Varoufakis position on the EU. 

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Brits, I have question:

which parts of the UK can be considered as pro-EU (other that Scotland) and which as anti-EU?
Is there any pattern, for example income/economic pattern which can influence the choice of citizens? I know that for example former mining/heavy industry areas usually vote for Labour but maybe also such areas might vote against EU?

[freefair]

Brits, I have question:

which parts of the UK can be considered as pro-EU (other that Scotland) and which as anti-EU?
Is there any pattern, for example income/economic pattern which can influence the choice of citizens? I know that for example former mining/heavy industry areas usually vote for Labour but maybe also such areas might vote against EU?

That's probably rtue, about certain core small town- Labour areas (Rotherham,etc) but not as much with the inner cities. I think that in England it's probably Greater London that is most pro-EU with Eurosceptisicism being most common in East Anglia (Essex, Suffolk, Norfolk) and less common in the Southwest & West Midlands.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The first thing you have to understand is that, actually, most people don't care about the EU (much) either way. The second thing is that UKIP support patterns are a) not stable and b) can't be used as a proxy for attitudes towards the EU as that generally isn't why people vote for them (when they do). The last time there was a vote on this matter was forty years ago: while it is possible that the patterns observable then (i.e. relatively uniform but with higher In votes in Conservative strongholds, both urban and rural) it is not guaranteed. My suspicion is that the highest Out votes will be in rural areas with large numbers of transient - meaning that they won't be voting themselves - migrant workers (i.e. Lincolnshire) and that the highest In votes will be in places with very young populations.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Thank you guys for the answer!

[Serenity Now]

On the subject of the potential geography of the result of the referendum, the other day I made the map below.  It shows a very crude regression model of the following variables:

• UKIP 2015 General election vote share (dependent variable)
• Conservative 2015 GE vote share (independent variable)
• Turnout at the 2015 GE (independent variable)
• 'White British' in 2011 Census (independent variable)
• Degree or equivalent in 2011 Census (independent variable)
• Aged 60 and over in 2011 Census (independent variable)

Using this, I divided the Parliamentary Constituencies into quartiles in order to show a hypothetical 'tie' situation:

Dark green = 25% most likely to vote to remain.
Green = the 25% which are likely than the median constituency to vote to remain.
Red = 25% which are less likely than the median constituency to vote to leave.
Dark red = the 25% most likely to vote to leave.

I ran this very arbitrary regression model for a laugh, just to see what the outcome would look like.  It may prove primarily useful for comedy value but I thought it might provoke some interesting discussion nonetheless.

Please feel free to criticize the hell out of this model (I can see a few howlers) as I may be able to change it into something more credible.  There a things said in previous posts pointing out potential problems (Sibboleth's comment about the geography of the UKIP vote, for one thing).

For extra 'fun', I can easily recreate this model to assume different national outcomes upon request, just give me the desired yes/no percentages.



Link to bigger version in gallery:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14405

[Illiniwek]

@Bro-mentum

Hey, just curious: Why do you think that Glasgow NorthEast/East & Banff and Buchan will vote to leave?

[Serenity Now]

@Bro-mentum

Hey, just curious: Why do you think that Glasgow NorthEast/East & Banff and Buchan will vote to leave?

I don't think this, the regression model detailed above did.  If any areas in Scotland did vote to leave, I doubt it would be these ones.  Also, please note this is how areas would vote compared to average in a 'tie' type situation.  If the outcome is a 'remain' vote nationally I suspect it would be by a wider margin and therefore said constituencies would probably vote remain.

[MaxQue]

For the record, results won't be reported by constituency, but by local authority.

[Illiniwek]

@Bro-mentum

Hey, just curious: Why do you think that Glasgow NorthEast/East & Banff and Buchan will vote to leave?

I don't think this, the regression model detailed above did.  If any areas in Scotland did vote to leave, I doubt it would be these ones.  Also, please note this is how areas would vote compared to average in a 'tie' type situation.  If the outcome is a 'remain' vote nationally I suspect it would be by a wider margin and therefore said constituencies would probably vote remain.

Cool thanks

[Clyde1998]

More interestingly, what is the SNP position. Will they propose an independent Scotland in EU referendum?

The SNP have made it clear that it would lead to another referendum. Current polls show that it would cause a big enough swing to put the Independence campaign in Scotland over the 50% mark.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/bookies-slash-odds-scottish-independence-7415275

Is this becoming an issue in England? How much does an average English voter realize this?

I live in England, and the only things that get reported in the London media is negative to the SNP [and the overall independence movement]; there's very little positive about them. So it's not particularity going down well in England. Although, it won't be used as a campaigning point for the Remain campaign, as I feel more people would move to Leave than move to Remain (if there's any movement at all).

In Scotland, Panelbase polled on a question of: "If a majority of people in the UK voted for the UK to leave the EU, would you support another referendum being held on Scottish independence?". 47% said Yes; 40% No; 13% didn't know. So there is support for the SNP's stance in Scotland; even 20% of those who voted No in the referendum said there should be a second referendum in that situation.

[Clyde1998]

Brits, I have question:

which parts of the UK can be considered as pro-EU (other that Scotland) and which as anti-EU?
Is there any pattern, for example income/economic pattern which can influence the choice of citizens? I know that for example former mining/heavy industry areas usually vote for Labour but maybe also such areas might vote against EU?

London, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar (who's citizens are able to vote) spring to mind in terms of national/regional groupings.

Imagine the scenes if Gibraltar's votes keep the UK in the EU.

[Clyde1998]

On the subject of the potential geography of the result of the referendum, the other day I made the map below.  It shows a very crude regression model of the following variables:

• UKIP 2015 General election vote share (dependent variable)
• Conservative 2015 GE vote share (independent variable)
• Turnout at the 2015 GE (independent variable)
• 'White British' in 2011 Census (independent variable)
• Degree or equivalent in 2011 Census (independent variable)
• Aged 60 and over in 2011 Census (independent variable)

Using this, I divided the Parliamentary Constituencies into quartiles in order to show a hypothetical 'tie' situation:

Dark green = 25% most likely to vote to remain.
Green = the 25% which are likely than the median constituency to vote to remain.
Red = 25% which are less likely than the median constituency to vote to leave.
Dark red = the 25% most likely to vote to leave.

I ran this very arbitrary regression model for a laugh, just to see what the outcome would look like.  It may prove primarily useful for comedy value but I thought it might provoke some interesting discussion nonetheless.

Please feel free to criticize the hell out of this model (I can see a few howlers) as I may be able to change it into something more credible.  There a things said in previous posts pointing out potential problems (Sibboleth's comment about the geography of the UKIP vote, for one thing).

For extra 'fun', I can easily recreate this model to assume different national outcomes upon request, just give me the desired yes/no percentages.



Link to bigger version in gallery:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14405

How did you make this (as in what program did you use)?