United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership
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Author Topic: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership  (Read 175450 times)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #150 on: February 24, 2016, 08:39:23 PM »

I wonder if Galloway will have any effect on certain areas of East London, Bradford etc.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #151 on: February 24, 2016, 09:01:54 PM »

Brexit endorsed by David Owen (lmao)
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #152 on: February 24, 2016, 09:08:19 PM »

ahahahaha
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Simfan34
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« Reply #153 on: February 25, 2016, 01:22:54 AM »
« Edited: February 25, 2016, 01:25:35 AM by Simfan34 »

Wait, what? Didn't Owen et al break with Foot over, amongst other things, the precise issue of the latter's desire to pull the UK out of the EEC?
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ag
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« Reply #154 on: February 25, 2016, 01:51:19 AM »

More interestingly, what is the SNP position. Will they propose an independent Scotland in EU referendum?
The SNP have made it clear that it would lead to another referendum. Current polls show that it would cause a big enough swing to put the Independence campaign in Scotland over the 50% mark.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/bookies-slash-odds-scottish-independence-7415275

Is this becoming an issue in England? How much does an average English voter realize this?
I live in England, and the only things that get reported in the London media is negative to the SNP [and the overall independence movement]; there's very little positive about them. So it's not particularity going down well in England. Although, it won't be used as a campaigning point for the Remain campaign, as I feel more people would move to Leave than move to Remain (if there's any movement at all).

In Scotland, Panelbase polled on a question of: "If a majority of people in the UK voted for the UK to leave the EU, would you support another referendum being held on Scottish independence?". 47% said Yes; 40% No; 13% didn't know. So there is support for the SNP's stance in Scotland; even 20% of those who voted No in the referendum said there should be a second referendum in that situation.

It would be funny, if this turns out to be the real Scottish Independence referendum Smiley

BTW, could this destabilise NI? With UK out f EU it is hard to see how the proper controls on the border with the Republic could be avoided, at the very least. That is bound to have an impact.
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tomm_86
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« Reply #155 on: February 25, 2016, 10:02:58 AM »

On the subject of the potential geography of the result of the referendum, the other day I made the map below.  It shows a very crude regression model of the following variables:

  • UKIP 2015 General election vote share (dependent variable)
  • Conservative 2015 GE vote share (independent variable)
  • Turnout at the 2015 GE (independent variable)
  • 'White British' in 2011 Census (independent variable)
  • Degree or equivalent in 2011 Census (independent variable)
  • Aged 60 and over in 2011 Census (independent variable)

Using this, I divided the Parliamentary Constituencies into quartiles in order to show a hypothetical 'tie' situation:

Dark green = 25% most likely to vote to remain.
Green = the 25% which are likely than the median constituency to vote to remain.
Red = 25% which are less likely than the median constituency to vote to leave.
Dark red = the 25% most likely to vote to leave.

I ran this very arbitrary regression model for a laugh, just to see what the outcome would look like.  It may prove primarily useful for comedy value but I thought it might provoke some interesting discussion nonetheless.

Please feel free to criticize the hell out of this model (I can see a few howlers) as I may be able to change it into something more credible.  There a things said in previous posts pointing out potential problems (Sibboleth's comment about the geography of the UKIP vote, for one thing).

For extra 'fun', I can easily recreate this model to assume different national outcomes upon request, just give me the desired yes/no percentages.



Link to bigger version in gallery:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14405
How did you make this (as in what program did you use)?

I used Excel 2010 for the regression model (using the 'Data Analysis' add-on) and ArcMap to map the results.
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tomm_86
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« Reply #156 on: February 25, 2016, 10:05:33 AM »

For the record, results won't be reported by constituency, but by local authority.

Yes, I should have stated this in my post, given I'd assumed that would be the case (as it was with the Alternative Vote referendum).  However, I didn't have the data I wanted to use by local authority.  I'll probably have another go at a model using variables which are available by local authority (eg Census data).
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #157 on: February 25, 2016, 11:45:17 AM »

Is this becoming an issue in England? How much does an average English voter realize this?

The average English voter does not think about Scotland at all.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #158 on: February 25, 2016, 02:25:06 PM »

More interestingly, what is the SNP position. Will they propose an independent Scotland in EU referendum?
The SNP have made it clear that it would lead to another referendum. Current polls show that it would cause a big enough swing to put the Independence campaign in Scotland over the 50% mark.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/bookies-slash-odds-scottish-independence-7415275

Is this becoming an issue in England? How much does an average English voter realize this?
I live in England, and the only things that get reported in the London media is negative to the SNP [and the overall independence movement]; there's very little positive about them. So it's not particularity going down well in England. Although, it won't be used as a campaigning point for the Remain campaign, as I feel more people would move to Leave than move to Remain (if there's any movement at all).

In Scotland, Panelbase polled on a question of: "If a majority of people in the UK voted for the UK to leave the EU, would you support another referendum being held on Scottish independence?". 47% said Yes; 40% No; 13% didn't know. So there is support for the SNP's stance in Scotland; even 20% of those who voted No in the referendum said there should be a second referendum in that situation.

It would be funny, if this turns out to be the real Scottish Independence referendum Smiley

BTW, could this destabilise NI? With UK out f EU it is hard to see how the proper controls on the border with the Republic could be avoided, at the very least. That is bound to have an impact.
It will be interesting to see what happens there, if the UK votes to leave. There could be an impact to the Good Friday Agreement, as it presently sits, as well in that case.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #159 on: February 25, 2016, 03:03:49 PM »

Wait, what? Didn't Owen et al break with Foot over, amongst other things, the precise issue of the latter's desire to pull the UK out of the EEC?

Ah but his point (which I agree with) is that the EEC that the UK joined in 1973 is very different to the present day EU.

Ted Heath (bless him) successfully pulled the wool over people's eyes (including a lot of politicians of that time) over the fundamental federalising nature of the European "project".

As an aside Heath made a very well attended speech in front of the shops right next to my house in 1975 during the referendum campaign. I remember my mum was buzzing over that for ages afterwards Cheesy

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Frodo
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« Reply #160 on: February 25, 2016, 06:18:07 PM »

 EU referendum: Over 50s now more likely to vote for a Brexit than to stay in the EU, with men more likely to be saying no to the union than women
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CrabCake
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« Reply #161 on: February 25, 2016, 06:50:53 PM »

OFFICIAL: "NO" WINS THE LUCRATIVE ENDORSEMENT OF MY GRANDMA
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DavidB.
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« Reply #162 on: February 25, 2016, 08:00:49 PM »

OFFICIAL: "NO" WINS THE LUCRATIVE ENDORSEMENT OF MY GRANDMA
"NO" = "remain", I assume?
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CrabCake
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« Reply #163 on: February 25, 2016, 08:17:31 PM »

OFFICIAL: "NO" WINS THE LUCRATIVE ENDORSEMENT OF MY GRANDMA
"NO" = "remain", I assume?

Yes, which is weird because she voted UKIP. No idea why she changed her mind.
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Frodo
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« Reply #164 on: February 25, 2016, 08:24:32 PM »

OFFICIAL: "NO" WINS THE LUCRATIVE ENDORSEMENT OF MY GRANDMA
"NO" = "remain", I assume?

Yes, which is weird because she voted UKIP. No idea why she changed her mind.

It could be that she's having second thoughts about the prospect of seceding from the rest of Europe now that it actually presents itself as a very real possibility.  Up until now, I suppose she was venting. 
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tomm_86
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« Reply #165 on: February 26, 2016, 08:49:11 AM »

Here's a more useful map than the last one, which shows how MPs have said they'll vote (Great Britain only, I'm afraid):



Map created using data from: http://gu.com/p/4hxmj/stw

Green = remain
Red = leave
Grey = undeclared

Two seats are excluded: one neutral (Speaker's seat of Buckingham) and one vacant (Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough).

Bigger version in gallery: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14419

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #166 on: February 26, 2016, 11:29:01 AM »

I see that my MPs business interests have outweighed any deference towards members of his local Association, lmao.
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Clyde1998
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« Reply #167 on: February 28, 2016, 04:34:13 PM »

YouGov "EU Membership Referendum Map of Britain". Scotland is indistinguishable from the rest of the UK...

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #168 on: February 28, 2016, 07:48:06 PM »

Why do YouGov persist in believing that that type of exercise is anything other than a total waste of effort?
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joevsimp
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« Reply #169 on: February 29, 2016, 06:43:02 AM »

On the subject of the potential geography of the result of the referendum, the other day I made the map below.  It shows a very crude regression model of the following variables:

  • UKIP 2015 General election vote share (dependent variable)
  • Conservative 2015 GE vote share (independent variable)
  • Turnout at the 2015 GE (independent variable)
  • 'White British' in 2011 Census (independent variable)
  • Degree or equivalent in 2011 Census (independent variable)
  • Aged 60 and over in 2011 Census (independent variable)

Using this, I divided the Parliamentary Constituencies into quartiles in order to show a hypothetical 'tie' situation:

Dark green = 25% most likely to vote to remain.
Green = the 25% which are likely than the median constituency to vote to remain.
Red = 25% which are less likely than the median constituency to vote to leave.
Dark red = the 25% most likely to vote to leave.

I ran this very arbitrary regression model for a laugh, just to see what the outcome would look like.  It may prove primarily useful for comedy value but I thought it might provoke some interesting discussion nonetheless.

Please feel free to criticize the hell out of this model (I can see a few howlers) as I may be able to change it into something more credible.  There a things said in previous posts pointing out potential problems (Sibboleth's comment about the geography of the UKIP vote, for one thing).

For extra 'fun', I can easily recreate this model to assume different national outcomes upon request, just give me the desired yes/no percentages.



Link to bigger version in gallery:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14405
How did you make this (as in what program did you use)?

I used Excel 2010 for the regression model (using the 'Data Analysis' add-on) and ArcMap to map the results.

fantastic work! but you've a fairly obvious outlier, what on your model tips Thanet South into Remain?
I also can't see Colchester, Chelmsford and Saffron Walden voting In when the rest of Essex is so heavily out, which it will be (ditto for Norfolk North, interesting pattern of residual LibDemmage though)
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CrabCake
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« Reply #170 on: February 29, 2016, 06:46:11 AM »

Doesn't a lot of the SW use a lot of EU funds?
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #171 on: February 29, 2016, 07:46:59 AM »

Doesn't a lot of the SW use a lot of EU funds?

Yes. In particular Cornwall benefits from the EUs gerrymandered definition of 'poor area' to rake in mucho Euro...
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Zanas
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« Reply #172 on: February 29, 2016, 06:16:07 PM »

Doesn't a lot of the SW use a lot of EU funds?

Yes. In particular Cornwall benefits from the EUs gerrymandered definition of 'poor area' to rake in mucho Euro...
Since when must the income of EU funds not correlate with eurosceptic feeling?...
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tomm_86
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« Reply #173 on: March 01, 2016, 06:50:20 AM »

On the subject of the potential geography of the result of the referendum, the other day I made the map below.  It shows a very crude regression model of the following variables:

  • UKIP 2015 General election vote share (dependent variable)
  • Conservative 2015 GE vote share (independent variable)
  • Turnout at the 2015 GE (independent variable)
  • 'White British' in 2011 Census (independent variable)
  • Degree or equivalent in 2011 Census (independent variable)
  • Aged 60 and over in 2011 Census (independent variable)

Using this, I divided the Parliamentary Constituencies into quartiles in order to show a hypothetical 'tie' situation:

Dark green = 25% most likely to vote to remain.
Green = the 25% which are likely than the median constituency to vote to remain.
Red = 25% which are less likely than the median constituency to vote to leave.
Dark red = the 25% most likely to vote to leave.

I ran this very arbitrary regression model for a laugh, just to see what the outcome would look like.  It may prove primarily useful for comedy value but I thought it might provoke some interesting discussion nonetheless.

Please feel free to criticize the hell out of this model (I can see a few howlers) as I may be able to change it into something more credible.  There a things said in previous posts pointing out potential problems (Sibboleth's comment about the geography of the UKIP vote, for one thing).

For extra 'fun', I can easily recreate this model to assume different national outcomes upon request, just give me the desired yes/no percentages.



Link to bigger version in gallery:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14405
How did you make this (as in what program did you use)?

I used Excel 2010 for the regression model (using the 'Data Analysis' add-on) and ArcMap to map the results.

fantastic work! but you've a fairly obvious outlier, what on your model tips Thanet South into Remain?
I also can't see Colchester, Chelmsford and Saffron Walden voting In when the rest of Essex is so heavily out, which it will be (ditto for Norfolk North, interesting pattern of residual LibDemmage though)

Yes, that's very strange about Thanet South: I'm wondering if that was an error with the data matching using the ONS codes for the constituencies (I've found mistakes like this before in various datasets of election results).  It could be to do with the relatively high turnout there.  The Lib Dem vote clearly confounds this model too.  The more I look at it the sillier it appears, although I think it does nail it for some areas and probably the two lighter shades give an indication of areas that could go either way..
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joevsimp
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« Reply #174 on: March 03, 2016, 08:46:00 AM »
« Edited: March 31, 2016, 06:39:59 AM by joevsimp »

Maybe it's that Sandwich is included in South Thanet? The Pfizer pharmaceuticals site was still at full strength at the last census,  so plenty of graduates and PhDs who don't necessarily live there any more now that most of the jobs there have gone, not to mention a slight skewing upward of average income and non-"white British"

Should've clocked that sooner really, I was applying for those soon-to-be-axed jobs 5 or 6 years ago
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