United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[jaichind]

This one, you mean?

I was thinking of her post-Maastricht Treaty position

[Clyde1998]

It appears that David Cameron is going to debate Nigel Farage on ITV: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36273499

[joevsimp]

It appears that David Cameron is going to debate Nigel Farage on ITV: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36273499

and Leave.EU are kicking up a fuss because its not their man Gove.

Speaking of; I've just had a Leave ad come up on a mobile game, urgh, and I'm yet to see a single Remain advert anywhere.

I'm off to the pictures in a bit though, are the main cinema chains declining to show any ads for either side like they (belatedly) decided in the Scottish referendum

[Clyde1998]

It appears that David Cameron is going to debate Nigel Farage on ITV: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36273499

and Leave.EU are kicking up a fuss because its not their man Gove.

Speaking of; I've just had a Leave ad come up on a mobile game, urgh, and I'm yet to see a single Remain advert anywhere.

I'm off to the pictures in a bit though, are the main cinema chains declining to show any ads for either side like they (belatedly) decided in the Scottish referendum

I hope they're not going to show any - they shouldn't be showing any political adverts at any time in cinemas.
We're going to have a Farage-Sturgeon debate on BBC 1; 26th May; 8pm - as well. Held in Glasgow, but apparently the audience will be representative of the whole UK - not Scotland.

[Phony Moderate]

I wonder what turnout will be. I've been looking at some odds and the punters seem to think that it will be at 2001 GE levels (high 50s). Anecdotally, I'm hearing more discussion about this in the drinking holes etc than I heard about the general election during April 2015.

Remember, 42% actually bothered to turn out for the AV referendum, despite the campaign being even more pathetic than this one, despite it being that an issue that few people really care about and despite the polls showing an overwhelming No lead.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The thing about turnout is that no one really has a clue as to what it will be.

[rob in cal]

  Which side would benefit most from a lower turnout?  My guess would be Leave as it might have the most committed supporters who are going to vote no matter what.  Also, does London normally have lower turnout than the rest of the UK? As its a Remain stronghold that might have implications in a close vote.

[Angel of Death]

I wonder what outcome would be in Labour's best interests; it probably won't matter much either way.

[jaichind]

  Which side would benefit most from a lower turnout?  My guess would be Leave as it might have the most committed supporters who are going to vote no matter what.  Also, does London normally have lower turnout than the rest of the UK? As its a Remain stronghold that might have implications in a close vote.

I assume Leaves.  My understanding is that Leaves wins for older votes and Stays wins for younger voters.  In a low turnout situation the older voters will form the larger portion of the voting base.

[jaichind]

I wonder what outcome would be in Labour's best interests; it probably won't matter much either way.

I can see this referendum splitting the CON so badly that Cameron might have to go later this year.  In which case the new CON PM might call for new elections while Jeremy Corbyn is in charge of LAB.  Delaying it would only make the CON defeat far far worse a few years from now like what happen to Major in 1997.

[Lumine]

I can't believe I'm asking this (particularly since it's been barely a year since the GE), but can Cameron survive?

[IceAgeComing]

He said he was going before the next election; that always would start to divide the party on leadership lines before we went: and add in the referendum and he'll find it hard.  I think that he'll resign before he's pushed, he's certainly going if there's a leave vote.

The Fixed Term Parliament Act is a theoretical block to a government calling elections went it would want to, but they could just amend or repeal it if they really wanted and they'd probably get a majority.  Corbyn will be leader of Labour for the foreseeable future - he's still very popular amongst the membership and I'd imagine that there would be resistance to trying to push him out, or trying to put a right-winger in.  Its also a big assumption that the Tories would do gain seats in a fresh election; no one really knows what's going to happen to UKIP or the Tories post-referendum and a lengthy bitter leadership election might cost them more support than a new leader would gain.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cameron is basically done, one way or the other. Kind of hilarious as it is entirely his own fault. The succession is on even if he stays in post for a few more years.

[ChrisDR68]

The turnout in the AV Referendum in 2011 was 42% and in the general election last year it was 66%. Split the difference and you get 54%.

That sounds about right in this EU Referendum I think.

On the question on which result is best for the Labour Party my own feeling is that a Leave victory would be best electorally for them.

At the last general election around a million traditional Labour voters switched to UKIP. Given that around 40% of Labour voters are Eurosceptic a Remain win could well see another million defect at the next general election given the overwhelming (and unrepresentative) pro-EU stance of Labour MP's in the House of Commons.

It could be pretty much a win-win situation for UKIP. Leave wins and their whole reason for being has come to pass. Remain wins and they shoot up in the opinion polls in a similar way (although less so obviously) to the SNP following their independence referendum in Scotland.

[Phony Moderate]

The turnout in the AV Referendum in 2011 was 42% and in the general election last year it was 66%. Split the difference and you get 54%.

If that turns out to be the case then each side will get between 12 and 14 million votes if it's a close run thing.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The turnout in the AV Referendum in 2011 was 42% and in the general election last year it was 66%. Split the difference and you get 54%.

That sounds about right in this EU Referendum I think.

On the question on which result is best for the Labour Party my own feeling is that a Leave victory would be best electorally for them.

At the last general election around a million traditional Labour voters switched to UKIP. Given that around 40% of Labour voters are Eurosceptic a Remain win could well see another million defect at the next general election given the overwhelming (and unrepresentative) pro-EU stance of Labour MP's in the House of Commons.

It could be pretty much a win-win situation for UKIP. Leave wins and their whole reason for being has come to pass. Remain wins and they shoot up in the opinion polls in a similar way (although less so obviously) to the SNP following their independence referendum in Scotland.

I think you're overstaying the importance of the EU (as opposed to immigration) for the base. The EU is an issue that certain activists (pro and con) get worked up about, not real people.

As for UKIP, it depends on whether they keep a united shop between their two factions. Worst thing for them would be the Tories swiftly moving populist right by dropping The Chipping Norton Set and invading their niche.

[Gustaf]

Can we have some #analysis of polls and stuff in this thread?

I saw somewhere that polls have it tied on average?

[jaichind]

Can we have some #analysis of polls and stuff in this thread?

I saw somewhere that polls have it tied on average?

It seems polls averages have Stay with a slight lead.  Phone line polls seems to be biased in favor of Stay and online polls seems to be biased in favor of Leave.  Could be indicative of a shy Leave vote.

[ChrisDR68]

I think you're overstaying the importance of the EU (as opposed to immigration) for the base. The EU is an issue that certain activists (pro and con) get worked up about, not real people.

As for UKIP, it depends on whether they keep a united shop between their two factions. Worst thing for them would be the Tories swiftly moving populist right by dropping The Chipping Norton Set and invading their niche.

The EU and immigration are synonymous in many people's minds though (rightly or wrongly) which largely explains why the leave campaign is competitive at all in this referendum (the question of national sovereignty and parliamentary democracy doesn't cut through with voters much at all by way of comparison).

That explains why UKIP did so well in northern working class towns in the 2015 general election and could increasingly do so in the future if Remain wins this referendum.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Polls show most of the Labour base don't even know Labour's own position on the EU. It's a completely peripheral issue to most voters, unless you're a fisherman - and the few people that are swung by such arguments have really never been labour voters to begin with (they were the working class heroes that the Tories endlessly pandered to during the Blair Yeatrs) . We have enough trouble keeping unity on other dumb stuff that no real voters care about like trident, why copy the Tories and decide to purge the PLP for the mythical deep and widespread working-class euroscepticism that the media Thinks is a thing?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Like the primary issue with the Labour base vote in this referendum is getting it to actually turn out at all.

[jaichind]

ICM which is a phone poll just came out showing lead for Leave 45/42 which is a swing of 14 from a couple of weeks ago.  An ICM online survey has Leave leading 47/44.  This is the first time in a while that a phone survey show Leave with the lead.    GBP drops 0.8% almost instantaneously when this poll result was released.  The market has mostly priced in a high chance of Stay winning.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It makes no sense for the one poll to show significant movement and the other functionally none. The suspicion has to be that the polling industry has no idea what's going on...

[Dutch Conservative]

There will be no television exitpoll on June 23. The broadcastcompanies agreed to that, because they have no clue of the electorate and turnout (Source: Bloomberg).

It appears that banks and hedgefunds will do polling, so the stocks and the exchangerate of the pound will probably give some idea.

[Phony Moderate]

There will be no television exitpoll on June 23. The broadcastcompanies agreed to that, because they have no clue of the electorate and turnout (Source: Bloomberg).

In reality it's because they don't want to cough up the £££.