United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Pandaguineapig]

What are the odds of Cameron resigning if leave wins?

[IceAgeComing]

99.9%

In terms of the polls; I think that phone one that showed a leave lead might just be a rogue; although it depends what other polls show in the next few days.  There's also the fact that I'm pretty sure that generally you get a small swing back to the status quo in these things on polling day and I'm still pretty confident that remain will win: although I'm from Scotland where remain is pretty far in the lead (the last Survation phone poll was Remain 58%, Leave 19%) so that probably makes me slightly biased.

It'll be interesting to see if turnout is any different here than it is anywhere else in the UK - its somewhere where Remain probably will want to get out the vote quite strongly; there are a lot less voters here than there are in England sure but unless the polls are very, very, very wrong it'll benefit remain a lot more than leave and that could be important if its a close thing.

[jaichind]

GBP now down 1.8% since ICM poll came out yesterday.

[AuH2O Republican]

What are the odds of Cameron resigning if leave wins?

The only way I see Cameron staying on with enough legitimacy to keep going is if the In vote wins by a large margin.

[ChrisDR68]

Calls today for Corbyn to do more in this referendum.

Considering he is on record as wanting more immigration into this country while two thirds of the population regard it as out of control I can't see him getting more involved will do anything other than help the Leave campaign.

Their spokespeople will simply quote his statements and speeches on the subject. The other thing they could (and probably will) do is to quote what he's said in the past extolling his long held scepticism on the European Union.

[mgop]

announce referendum, make all politicians and political parties on one side and one former mayor on the other side. oh democracy at its finest...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cameron is basically finished no matter what, the only question is whether he's in a position to hang around for a few years with the Succession Question hovering endlessly over him, or whether he has to go sooner.

[cp]

Cameron is basically finished no matter what, the only question is whether he's in a position to hang around for a few years with the Succession Question hovering endlessly over him, or whether he has to go sooner.

Agreed. Unfortunately, either way the next Tory leadership race will prolong further the debate about EU membership, with a good chance of an anti-Europe leader at the end of it. Then it's anyone's guess what happens - another referendum? An early election? A second leadership challenge if the winner fouls up?

There are a lot of reasons to despise this whole referendum exercise, but one of the biggest has to be how it's basically just an internal Tory/Eton/Oxford spat played out on the national stage with the rest of us forced to go along for the ride.

[Pandaguineapig]

I assume if leave wins and Cameron resigns it's a good bet Johnson will win the leadership election

[Phony Moderate]

I assume if leave wins and Cameron resigns it's a good bet Johnson will win the leadership election

The "good bet" doesn't usually win the Tory leadership. I'd say it'd be Gove.

[Pandaguineapig]

I assume if leave wins and Cameron resigns it's a good bet Johnson will win the leadership election

The "good bet" doesn't usually win the Tory leadership. I'd say it'd be Gove.

I'd say it would be between those two with Osborne as a darkhorse

[IceAgeComing]

Keep in mind how the Tory leadership process works: its not like the Lib Dems or Labour where the membership chooses between several candidates, the parliamentary party has more of a say.  Basically the parliamentary party vote between all successfully nominated candidates until they have two, who the membership choose between.  If it was like Labour's leadership election then Boris would be the favourite; the issue that he has is getting through the parliamentary party which I think he'd find pretty hard.

[Pandaguineapig]

Keep in mind how the Tory leadership process works: its not like the Lib Dems or Labour where the membership chooses between several candidates, the parliamentary party has more of a say.  Basically the parliamentary party vote between all successfully nominated candidates until they have two, who the membership choose between.  If it was like Labour's leadership election then Boris would be the favourite; the issue that he has is getting through the parliamentary party which I think he'd find pretty hard.

Good point, that would mean a Cameron ally would have a much better chance than if it were a popular election

[YL]

I think Osborne is too pro-EU to win a Tory leadership election at the moment.  Though there would be the caveat that the MPs might offer the membership Osborne and someone even less palatable to the base.

[Phony Moderate]

What 'voting areas' could be bellweathers for the national result? I imagine a lot of the classical Lab-Con marginals (Nuneaton and Bedworth, Stevenage, Thurrock etc) will be at least somewhat more for Leave than the nation as a whole.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

What 'voting areas' could be bellweathers for the national result? I imagine a lot of the classical Lab-Con marginals (Nuneaton and Bedworth, Stevenage, Thurrock etc) will be at least somewhat more for Leave than the nation as a whole.

If Remain win Thurrock then will probably win by at least 60% nationally. That whole part of Essex is likely to be one of the most pro-leave parts of the country.

[joevsimp]

What 'voting areas' could be bellweathers for the national result? I imagine a lot of the classical Lab-Con marginals (Nuneaton and Bedworth, Stevenage, Thurrock etc) will be at least somewhat more for Leave than the nation as a whole.

If Remain win Thurrock then will probably win by at least 60% nationally. That whole part of Essex is likely to be one of the most pro-leave parts of the country.

I think it will be like that, trying to spot areas voting the opposite way that we'd expect, most of the Tory/Labour marginals like that are among Ukip's strongest areas.

[cp]

Will trying to keep track of those results be possible on election night, or useful for that matter? Will the results be released periodically all night by electoral district (or region or county or whatever)? Even if they are, from what I gather the privately-funded exit polls will have spilled the beans even before the polls have closed.

[parochial boy]

What 'voting areas' could be bellweathers for the national result? I imagine a lot of the classical Lab-Con marginals (Nuneaton and Bedworth, Stevenage, Thurrock etc) will be at least somewhat more for Leave than the nation as a whole.

YouGov has this fascinating map of how eurosceptic it figures various parts of Britain are.

The middling areas seem to be largely rural/commuter belt areas in the North West, West Midlands and around London.

yougov.co.uk/ yougov-8545/

[IceAgeComing]

they're counting by council area; I think its at the District level in England where they don't have unitary authorities.  I'd imagine that the broadcasters would point out the interesting results...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The UK sucks for not collecting its election data at polling station level. It's like they don't even think about all the beautiful maps that could be made

[YL]

What 'voting areas' could be bellweathers for the national result? I imagine a lot of the classical Lab-Con marginals (Nuneaton and Bedworth, Stevenage, Thurrock etc) will be at least somewhat more for Leave than the nation as a whole.

YouGov has this fascinating map of how eurosceptic it figures various parts of Britain are.

The middling areas seem to be largely rural/commuter belt areas in the North West, West Midlands and around London.

yougov.co.uk/yougov-8545/

Interesting, but treat with several pinches of salt for certain individual areas.  Sample sizes are pretty small, and the samples are probably not properly random.

It does suggest that "rural areas in inland southern England" might be a possible answer to the bellwether question.

I suspect the answer may be in my first paragraph above, but why would Sandwell and South Tyneside stand out so much from their neighbours?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Internal polling data is basically trash, particularly when it comes from that firm (whatever one can say about their record at getting results right).

[ChrisDR68]

Here's my guess of how each of the 12 regions of the UK will vote from north to south:

Scotland - Heavily remain as the Scots have been pro EU for a long time.
Northern Ireland - Heavily remain possibly due to high EU funding there.
North East - Moderately leave with the EU fisheries policy being a major issue in the area.
Yorkshire & Humber - Moderately leave as the no nonsense Yorks people dislike all the nonsense from the EU
North West - Comfortably remain as the big cities will vote heavily in that direction.
West Midlands - Moderately remain due to worries over what might happen to manufacturing after a Brexit vote.
East Midlands - Heavily leave due to concerns over immigration in a mainly agricultural local economy.
Wales - Narrowly remain influenced by the Labour Party's pro EU stance.
East Anglia - Heavily leave for the same reason as the East Midlands.
South East - Comfortably leave due to immigration as it's the gateway into the UK from continental Europe.
London - Heavily remain as the city is the most cosmopolitan and multicultural in the country.
South West - Heavily leave due to immigration and their non-conformist local identity.

So that's potentially 6 regions for Remain and 6 regions for Leave.

The majority of the most densely populated areas are in favour of Remain if my guesswork is anything like correct which makes them firm favourites at this stage. Still could be an exciting referendum results night on tv though!

[mgop]

Here's my guess of how each of the 12 regions of the UK will vote from north to south:

Scotland - Heavily remain as the Scots have been pro EU for a long time.
Northern Ireland - Heavily remain possibly due to high EU funding there.
North East - Moderately leave with the EU fisheries policy being a major issue in the area.
Yorkshire & Humber - Moderately leave as the no nonsense Yorks people dislike all the nonsense from the EU
North West - Comfortably remain as the big cities will vote heavily in that direction.
West Midlands - Moderately remain due to worries over what might happen to manufacturing after a Brexit vote.
East Midlands - Heavily leave due to concerns over immigration in a mainly agricultural local economy.
Wales - Narrowly remain influenced by the Labour Party's pro EU stance.
East Anglia - Heavily leave for the same reason as the East Midlands.
South East - Comfortably leave due to immigration as it's the gateway into the UK from continental Europe.
London - Heavily remain as the city is the most cosmopolitan and multicultural in the country.
South West - Heavily leave due to immigration and their non-conformist local identity.

So that's potentially 6 regions for Remain and 6 regions for Leave.

The majority of the most densely populated areas are in favour of Remain if my guesswork is anything like correct which makes them firm favourites at this stage. Still could be an exciting referendum results night on tv though!

you know what is ironic? i seen map from 1975 uk referendum and smallest support for eu was in scotland, norn iron, wales, and even london...