United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership
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Author Topic: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership  (Read 175406 times)
Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #250 on: June 04, 2016, 11:39:12 AM »

Opinion polls have consistently indicated that the North East is the most pro-remain region in England outside London, whatever that's worth (probably not all that much).  As I feel I should make a prediction now that I've posted I'll say London, the three Celtic nations/provinces, the North East and North West will vote for Remain. The South East will be 50-50 and the others will vote to leave. The East Midlands and Eastern will be the strongest leave regions.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #251 on: June 04, 2016, 03:52:18 PM »
« Edited: June 04, 2016, 03:55:00 PM by ObserverIE »

Here's my guess of how each of the 12 regions of the UK will vote from north to south:

Northern Ireland - Heavily remain possibly due to high EU funding there.

Much more due to two factors:

1. It's the one area which would have to cope with an external border in the event of Brexit and whose economy would be most seriously damaged by Brexit.
2. You're starting with 40%+ of the population who have absolutely no inclination to identify with the xenophobic Union Jack-draped nationalism that motivates so much of the Leave campaigns. Like Scotland, it's based on an appeal to an identity that people don't share.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #252 on: June 04, 2016, 04:22:56 PM »

CORNWALL HEAVY REMAIN
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mgop
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« Reply #253 on: June 04, 2016, 04:27:25 PM »

Here's my guess of how each of the 12 regions of the UK will vote from north to south:

Northern Ireland - Heavily remain possibly due to high EU funding there.

Much more due to two factors:

1. It's the one area which would have to cope with an external border in the event of Brexit and whose economy would be most seriously damaged by Brexit.
2. You're starting with 40%+ of the population who have absolutely no inclination to identify with the xenophobic Union Jack-draped nationalism that motivates so much of the Leave campaigns. Like Scotland, it's based on an appeal to an identity that people don't share.

DUP, lergest NI party is for leaving, PBPA and TUV two minor parliamentary parties from NI are also for leaving, so it could be interesting. dont call xenophobic people you desagree with.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #254 on: June 04, 2016, 04:41:13 PM »

the only one of those parties that has any appeal to the population that he's talking about is People Before Profit; the DUP and TUV definitely doesn't have any appeal to the Nationalist part of the population.

The last NI opinion poll was October 2015 by "Lurid Talk" who I've never heard of; 56% Remain, 28% Leave, 15% "Unsure" - the RTE/BBC poll earlier the same month had a similar remain number but Leave down at 13%.  Assuming this thing is representative there's a huge sectarian divide: 54% of Unionist voters support leave compared to 21% for remain while for Republican/Nationalist voters 91% (!) of voters are for remain while 8% are for leave.  That latter number could go down I'm sure if there was a leave campaign that wasn't just British Nationalist flag waving and spoke in a way that would appeal to those voters; but with Sinn Fein and the SDLP supporting remain that's not going to happen, and PBPA isn't exactly a mass movement.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #255 on: June 04, 2016, 04:49:04 PM »

In Northern Ireland there's a classic case of "if my enemy is for it then I am against it" sectarianism (on both sides) and the nonactivist voters/nonsectarian activists lean towards Remain because they prefer an uneasy status quo than the risky promises of the fleg wavers.

PBP as you might expect is a protest partly. You might lend your first preference to them, but you don't have to, ah, listen to them.

The funny thing is a brexit would probably be better for the Nationalists' aims than the Unionists'.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #256 on: June 04, 2016, 05:45:09 PM »

In Northern Ireland there's a classic case of "if my enemy is for it then I am against it" sectarianism (on both sides) and the nonactivist voters/nonsectarian activists lean towards Remain because they prefer an uneasy status quo than the risky promises of the fleg wavers.

PBP as you might expect is a protest partly. You might lend your first preference to them, but you don't have to, ah, listen to them.

The funny thing is a brexit would probably be better for the Nationalists' aims than the Unionists'.

No it wouldn't as it would leave the two parts of Ireland under different trading blocs with all that that implies.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #257 on: June 04, 2016, 05:52:22 PM »
« Edited: June 04, 2016, 06:16:05 PM by ObserverIE »

Here's my guess of how each of the 12 regions of the UK will vote from north to south:

Northern Ireland - Heavily remain possibly due to high EU funding there.

Much more due to two factors:

1. It's the one area which would have to cope with an external border in the event of Brexit and whose economy would be most seriously damaged by Brexit.
2. You're starting with 40%+ of the population who have absolutely no inclination to identify with the xenophobic Union Jack-draped nationalism that motivates so much of the Leave campaigns. Like Scotland, it's based on an appeal to an identity that people don't share.

DUP, lergest NI party is for leaving, PBPA and TUV two minor parliamentary parties from NI are also for leaving, so it could be interesting. dont call xenophobic people you desagree with.

I think it's fair enough to say that a campaign which seems almost entirely based on opposition to immigration and fantasies about how everything would be wonderful if only immigrants could be excluded, and whose leading politician makes comparisons between the EU and Hitler is appealing to xenophobia.





The DUP and TUV appeal to the same sense of xenophobic nationalism, though directed at a different out-group (although the DUP has toned it down at leadership level over the last few years). PBP are a collection of Trotskyist grievance-mongers and impossibilists.
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« Reply #258 on: June 04, 2016, 06:14:57 PM »

Opinion polls have consistently indicated that the North East is the most pro-remain region in England outside London, whatever that's worth (probably not all that much).  As I feel I should make a prediction now that I've posted I'll say London, the three Celtic nations/provinces, the North East and North West will vote for Remain. The South East will be 50-50 and the others will vote to leave. The East Midlands and Eastern will be the strongest leave regions.

The North East gets a lot of regeneration money from the EU as a relatively poor area of England, and its economy is heavily influenced by Nissan and other Japanese car manufacturers.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #259 on: June 04, 2016, 06:46:40 PM »

Might be worth doing a prediction competition. Maybe with the following:

Overall result
Results by region
Turnout %
Voting area with highest Leave %
Voting area with highest Remain %
Results in the constituencies/voting areas of the major party leaders and leading figures in the campaigns (Boris and Alan Johnson, George Osborne, Kate Hoey, Frank Field, Michael Gove etc)
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YL
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« Reply #260 on: June 05, 2016, 02:09:26 AM »

Yorkshire & Humber - Moderately leave as the no nonsense Yorks people dislike all the nonsense from the EU

Can we have something better than stereotypes please?  Not everyone in Yorkshire is Geoffrey Boycott.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #261 on: June 05, 2016, 04:29:19 AM »

Here's a useful resource which contains the 2014 Euro election results by counting area.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #262 on: June 05, 2016, 05:46:09 AM »

I think it's fair enough to say that a campaign which seems almost entirely based on opposition to immigration and fantasies about how everything would be wonderful if only immigrants could be excluded, and whose leading politician makes comparisons between the EU and Hitler is appealing to xenophobia.

I've already voted (for Brexit) by post based on the sovereignty issue and a deep suspicion of the direction the EU is headed (a United States Of Europe). A direction it's always headed in since it's founding in the 1950's.

It's not all about immigration and to call all Brexiters xenophobic and racist is weak and lazy.
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afleitch
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« Reply #263 on: June 05, 2016, 05:59:52 AM »

The joint IN campaign in Scotland appears to be wisely 'standing aside' for the SNP campaign in Glasgow.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #264 on: June 05, 2016, 07:06:13 AM »

Yorkshire & Humber - Moderately leave as the no nonsense Yorks people dislike all the nonsense from the EU

Can we have something better than stereotypes please?  Not everyone in Yorkshire is Geoffrey Boycott.

Places like Rotherham and Doncaster are hardly bastions of metropolitan liberalism though are they? Lots of small tow Yorkshire are exactly the kinds of place that tend towards Brexit; places that have suffered deeply as a result of globalisation and don't reap the benefits of membership of the EU in the way that the big cities do.

The North West would be the same if it wasn't for Manchester and the fact that Merseyside is so massively Labour these days.
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ObserverIE
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« Reply #265 on: June 05, 2016, 08:54:57 AM »
« Edited: June 05, 2016, 09:18:32 AM by ObserverIE »

I think it's fair enough to say that a campaign which seems almost entirely based on opposition to immigration and fantasies about how everything would be wonderful if only immigrants could be excluded, and whose leading politician makes comparisons between the EU and Hitler is appealing to xenophobia.

I've already voted (for Brexit) by post based on the sovereignty issue and a deep suspicion of the direction the EU is headed (a United States Of Europe). A direction it's always headed in since it's founding in the 1950's.

It's not all about immigration and to call all Brexiters xenophobic and racist is weak and lazy.

It may not all be about immigration but it seems to be the issue that the Leave campaigns shout the loudest about.

Personally, I'm not at all impressed with the way that the EU is being run at the moment in terms of economic ideology. I voted against Nice I and Lisbon II, but I think the chances of a "United States of Europe" are absolutely zero because there's no support for the idea among the general populaces of European states. There's no common European demos around which such a concept could be built.

But flawed and all as the EU is, I do not want to see it disintegrate into a mess of squabbling states led by tinpot Mussolinis, playthings for Putin, Trump and Xi Jinping. And at a more selfish level, I do not want to see my country's economy and society damaged because of a larger neighbour's emotional spasms.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #266 on: June 05, 2016, 09:22:32 AM »

Given the rarity of referendums here the personalities in the campaigns matter more than they would do if we were like a Switzerland or a California (i.e. where the issue at hand matters much more and the personalities matter less).
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CrabCake
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« Reply #267 on: June 05, 2016, 09:41:44 AM »

Given the rarity of referendums here the personalities in the campaigns matter more than they would do if we were like a Switzerland or a California (i.e. where the issue at hand matters much more and the personalities matter less).

This is a common disease of referendums in countries without direct democracy as tradition (a prime example being the AV referendum).
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Vega
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« Reply #268 on: June 05, 2016, 10:06:22 AM »

Given the rarity of referendums here the personalities in the campaigns matter more than they would do if we were like a Switzerland or a California (i.e. where the issue at hand matters much more and the personalities matter less).

This is a common disease of referendums in countries without direct democracy as tradition (a prime example being the AV referendum).

Can you imagine if the U.S. as a whole at a referendum? It would be horrible.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #269 on: June 05, 2016, 10:10:39 AM »

   Well, California in a way has many attributes of the US as a whole, with people from all over the US having settled there, plus people from around the world.  Our initiative system works ok, but best I think when there aren't that many on the ballot and they are clear in their meanings and implications.
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CrabCake
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« Reply #270 on: June 05, 2016, 02:23:17 PM »

John Major's commentary on the Leave campaign is pretty brutal for such a dull technocrat.
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Cassius
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« Reply #271 on: June 05, 2016, 07:16:21 PM »

John Major has a lot of gall to criticise others for dishonesty, I'll give him that much.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #272 on: June 05, 2016, 07:52:59 PM »

John Major's commentary on the Leave campaign is pretty brutal for such a dull technocrat.

Major failed to use the UK's veto at the Maastricht Treaty negotiations in order to block the creation of the Euro.

He bares an enormous responsibility for the economic pain in southern Europe (the PIGS) over the last several years given that the single currency is largely responsible for it.

As a result he has zero credibility on the UK's relationship with the European Project.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #273 on: June 06, 2016, 03:58:15 AM »

He also rambled on about the threat of NHS privatisation if we leave, seemingly forgetting the record of his own government on the NHS.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #274 on: June 06, 2016, 01:24:47 PM »

ICM are denying that they've done a poll recently. Hilarious.
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