United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

How wonderful... I wonder if anyone has done the calculations about the economic impacts of what happens when this clusterfeck actually comes to pass?

Congrats, morons.

[Famous Mortimer]

This is exactly what happened with Scottish independence. It's tightening up but people will wimp out at the last minute and vote to remain.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

54.4% REMAIN
45.6% Leave

Scots, Welsh, Northern Irish, the Londoners and even the conservative people in the countryside will come around on election day.

Turnout: ~70%

[Cassius]

This should of been a comfortable win for remain but now it looks like leave has an advantage because the remain camp is being run by complete idiots

Where do they find the incompetents who run referendum campaigns, that's what I wanna know.

I think the only thing that will swing back to Remain is a big concerted effort by a Lqbour figure. Sadly Corbyn doesn't have his heart in it.

Well, I mean, in this campaign the Remain side has even less to sell than Better Together did in 2014. The fact is, very few people have any emotional attachment to the EU whatsoever, and I'd think a majority probably hold a rather negative view of it (which is not to say they're inclined to leave), for often good reasons. Essentially, the campaign is largely being fronted by people who fall into this category (Cameron, Osborne and to a lesser extent Corbyn) who have always been critical of the EU and have even said (as Cameron has in the past) that Britain could do well outside the EU, so there's something of a credibility gap when they now say that leaving would cause a second Great Depression or whatever the latest excessive hyperbole emanating from the Remain campaign is.

How wonderful... I wonder if anyone has done the calculations about the economic impacts of what happens when this clusterfeck actually comes to pass?

Congrats, morons.

Most studies indicate that the economy will take a negative hit for a while from Brexit. The thing is, this referendum isn't just about (and shouldn't be just about) economic forecasts, which, as I'm sure you're aware, are not always right, as was the case when we decided not to join the Euro and the economic forecasts projected much the same as they are now, incorrectly.

[parochial boy]

It's actuallly shocking how bad the remain campaign has been, their only argument is the economy, and that is their response to every question from immigration to sovereignty.

Surely they have focus groups somewhere telling them that it just isnt cutting through? That they need to start answering questions about the other issues.

It's not like it particularly hard to answer those questions - most immigration to the UK is from outside the EU, plenty of countries have higher immigration and much betterpublic services/wages/workers rights.

And outside the EU, the UK will be forced to play by the rules, and have less say in setting them, which quite clearly means less sovereignty.

[Phony Moderate]

This is exactly what happened with Scottish independence. It's tightening up but people will wimp out at the last minute and vote to remain.

The caveat to that would be that there may well be a difference in the attitude of the electorate between becoming an independent country and leaving a political union that many don't know much about.

Congrats, morons.

Regardless of whether this contains a grain or truth or not and regardless of what the result turns out to be, this is something that many on the left (both the 'radical' and 'mainstream' parts of it) need to cut out. And I say that as someone who had similar thoughts in May 2015.

[ChrisDR68]

On the government's short term economic forecast if there is a Brexit victory watch this interview between Andrew Neil and Matthew Hancock from the Daily Politics on May 25th.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nR-gewWitjc

Neil at 4 mins and 20 seconds:

"I'm simply trying to work out why a recession which by your own report's prediction would be -0.1% per quarter for four quarters would lead to this huge collapse in house prices, this huge increase in unemployment when far deeper recessions have not done the same?"

Hancock's squirming at this point had me in stitches

Given that Cameron and Osborne's whole reason for staying in the European Union is based on the economic argument the Remain campaign is in big trouble if all their most biased treasury forecast can come up with is four quarters of -0.1 growth each.

[YL]

It's actuallly shocking how bad the remain campaign has been, their only argument is the economy, and that is their response to every question from immigration to sovereignty.

Surely they have focus groups somewhere telling them that it just isnt cutting through? That they need to start answering questions about the other issues.

It's not like it particularly hard to answer those questions - most immigration to the UK is from outside the EU, plenty of countries have higher immigration and much betterpublic services/wages/workers rights.

And outside the EU, the UK will be forced to play by the rules, and have less say in setting them, which quite clearly means less sovereignty.

I agree, but I think they think that once it actually comes to making the decision waverers will vote based on the economy.

Cassius makes a good point about Cameron.  His past pandering to Euroscepticism (including, tbh, the very fact that we're having this referendum in the first place) has made him a very unconvincing spokesman for Remain, however strong the arguments he's making now.

[Phony Moderate]

More and more people seem to be tying the immigration and economy issues together though.

[afleitch]

My gut feeling is that there will be a vote to leave. Scotland and Northern Ireland will vote to remain.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

For whatever this is worth, the ORB poll's internals are as wonky as hell and even the Leave campaign has been playing it down.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cassius makes a good point about Cameron.  His past pandering to Euroscepticism (including, tbh, the very fact that we're having this referendum in the first place) has made him a very unconvincing spokesman for Remain, however strong the arguments he's making now.

Yep. But then that's Cameron for you; all tactics and no strategy.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

More and more people seem to be tying the immigration and economy issues together though.

My biggest concern about all of this is that if there's a vote to leave the EU and we do indeed then leave the EU (let's not discuss the potential clusterfyck post Leave vote scenarios that might result in a different outcome for the moment) and if it is agreed that we can say in the Single Market, then what will the reaction be when it emerges that immigration rules remain more or less the same as before? There's a real element of playing with fire to this.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's actuallly shocking how bad the remain campaign has been, their only argument is the economy, and that is their response to every question from immigration to sovereignty.

They haven't even called out the Leave campaign for some of their more egregious lying (i.e. over Turkey). It's borderline astonishing.

[Vega]

What I find really curious about Leave's immigration plan following a Yes vote is that they want an "Australian style points based system"... but I don't think they do.

Australia gets a large number of immigrants every year, and I don't think that the Brexit camp really wants that considering they're talking of an invasion of immigrants as it is in the EU.

[afleitch]

For whatever this is worth, the ORB poll's internals are as wonky as hell and even the Leave campaign has been playing it down.

Indeed. But my gut feeling is mostly based on what appears to be a 'retreat' to Scotland/Northern Ireland in terms of campaigning. At least publically. Which makes me think they hope 'England' (though I'm aware of vast differences within England itself) can be battled out to a draw at most.

The key is Labour voters, and I think the fact Labour has, unintentionally allowed them to drift which is symptomatic of Labour's ongoing inability to actually understand who it's voters are while the membership and PLP have been throwing spit balls at each other for the past year.

There whole issue with 'immigrants' is so wonderfully vague that there's really no rebuttal to it. No one cares we control our borders with respect to non EEA migrants (which is actually what I think voters 'mean', when they talk about immigration rather than say Romanians and Poles), that being in or out of the EU doesn't negate our responsibilities on asylum etc.

Voters chose the easiest gradient to slide down when making decisions (and parties traditional support has been based on not wanting their voters engaging in much in depth issue by issue thinking anyway!)

If we stay in, and it's because of the 'Scots' (because nice easy gradients don't allow for people to deal with the concept of Northern Ireland being relevant. Ever. Or recognise any regional difference within England that taken seperately could also have 'swung' the result), we may start to 'feel the hate' a little up here which is probably a bigger catalyst for changing attitudes to independence than Scotland voting in, but being taken out.

[ChrisDR68]

Yep. But then that's Cameron for you; all tactics and no strategy.

A bit like a certain Mr Wilson?

[Simfan34]

Or recognise any regional difference within England that taken seperately could also have 'swung' the result), we may start to 'feel the hate' a little up here which is probably a bigger catalyst for changing attitudes to independence than Scotland voting in, but being taken out.

You just have to have it both ways, don't you?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

It's actuallly shocking how bad the remain campaign has been, their only argument is the economy, and that is their response to every question from immigration to sovereignty.

They haven't even called out the Leave campaign for some of their more egregious lying (i.e. over Turkey). It's borderline astonishing.

The Leave campaign sent Enfield a letter with a map that had Syria and Iraq highlighted in orange.

(Although tbf to Remain,they are in an awkward position irt Turkey because they are used to the staus quo of pretending Turkey will ever be let in)

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Another day, another poll by another sketchy outfit: OUT 42%, IN 44% - Opinium

[Phony Moderate]

YouGov have similar figures, but with Leave in the lead at 43 and Remain at 42.

[ingemann]

That's the crux of it for me. The European project has had this federalising ambition from the get go and our being a member of it for 43 years hasn't changed that one iota

Yes, but it would also be strange that UK membership would change that, remember it took almost a decade of begging for membership from the UK before it was let into the EEC. UK never entered EEC/EU from a position of strength and since it became member, it have worked day and night to weaken it own influence with harebrained schemes (like Turkish membership to weaken EU federalism) and alienate its allies (like the East Europeans). UK have much less influence than it should have, but it have always been a British choice, and not something forced down over it by others.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

loooool at the last figure

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Michael Give literally given a cute family interest piece on BBC news bullsh**tting about fishing quotas. Can't wait for this drip to alienate everybody and be exiled to the backbenches.

Also lol, looks like the Xi Jinping Stronkg!!!! tour really made an impression on people, lmao.

[Cassius]

Michael Give literally given a cute family interest piece on BBC news bullsh**tting about fishing quotas. Can't wait for this drip to alienate everybody and be exiled to the backbenches.

Also lol, looks like the Xi Jinping Stronkg!!!! tour really made an impression on people, lmao.

Yes, it wouldn't do to depart in any way from the popular belief that all Tory politicians and voters are born and bred in test tubes and bottle fed on milk mixed with the ground up bones of dead children... would it.