United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

A little bit offtopic, a little bit not.

http://www.politico.eu/article/middle-englands-immigration-referendum-brexit-road-trip-britain-middle-england/

I am pretty sure that Polish woman wasn't exception and many Poles in UK would vote leave if they could do that. Kinda hilarious.

[Clyde1998]

I'm surprised that Clackmannanshire aren't higher on that list; I'm sure that they declared before half midnight for the independence referendum.

We also need to add Gibraltar to that list; they're apparently predicting a 2am local time declaration; that would be 1am BST I think

Clackmann declared at around 1:30am - but it will probably be the first result from Scotland, turnout dependent.

[rob in cal]

   That politico article was pretty interesting.  I wonder if Saddiq Khan's election as London mayor brought home to people the fact that, for better or for worse, there are vast ethnic transformations under way in many parts of Britain, and some people actually don't want Britain to undergo this transformation, even though much of this is from non-EU immigration and Britain can already control this whether its in or out of the EU.

[ag]

Hm.  Seems like they will Brexit.

It will be interesting to see, what stand will the EU negotiators take. I would suggest conditioning retention of visa and residence privilleges for British citizens in Europe on Britain joining Schengen. I mean, as Norway and Iceland amply demonstrate, you do not need to be a EU member to join

[rob in cal]

  Switzerland is also part of Schengen, not part of EU. 

[ag]

  Switzerland is also part of Schengen, not part of EU. 

Yep. So, UK (England?) could go from being part of EU and having its own border controls to not being part of EU and sharing border controls.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

The worst of both worlds, lol.

[ag]

The worst of both worlds, lol.

I mean, if England Brexits, it deserves the worst of both world. It should become more integrated into European institutions than it is now, but without the seat at the table when these are negotiated. Hopefully, they would also force them to abandon the pound in exchange for retaining trade access.

[vileplume]

The worst of both worlds, lol.

I mean, if England Brexits, it deserves the worst of both world. It should become more integrated into European institutions than it is now, but without the seat at the table when these are negotiated. Hopefully, they would also force them to abandon the pound in exchange for retaining trade access.

There is no chance that Britain could be forced to adopt the basket case currency that is the Euro. While I will probably vote to remain your post is complete nonsense.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

The following document should be helpful for people interested in how the count will be carried out, and result declared:

http://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7588

Basically, the count will start once polls close at 10pm, and results will be declared (for counting areas) throughout the night.

The list of counting areas expected to complete the count before 1.30am is interesting:

Sunderland (North East): 12.30am
Wandsworth (London): 12.30am
City of London (London): 12.45am
Foyle (Northern Ireland): 12:30am
Hartlepool (North East): 1.00-1.30am
Newcastle upon Tyne (North East): 1.00am
Oldham (North West): 1.00am
Swindon (South West): 1.00am
West Tyrone (Northern Ireland): 1:00am
Belfast East (Northern Ireland):   1:15am
Belfast South (Northern Ireland): 1:15am
Belfast West (Northern Ireland): 1:15am

We'll have a good indication of how Northern Ireland has voted, and as for English local authorities, we've got a major northern city (Newcastle), a socially mixed London Borough (Wandsworth), three (ex-)industrial northern towns (Oldham, Hartlepool and Sunderland) and a 'swing' area in the south of England (Swindon).

Wrt Northern Ireland I believe those aren't declarations - just when individual constituency-based counts will be complete. For the actual declaration (just one), NI is to be declared as a single area as it was at the AV referendum. This annoys me as it means no breakdown of the results. At least that's how I understand it - if that is the case Northern Ireland will be (easily) the biggest single declaring area in the entire referendum.

[ObserverIE]

The worst of both worlds, lol.

I mean, if England Brexits, it deserves the worst of both world. It should become more integrated into European institutions than it is now, but without the seat at the table when these are negotiated. Hopefully, they would also force them to abandon the pound in exchange for retaining trade access.

Same threats were made to Norway and Switzerland.
And if the EU countries decided cut their nose to spite their faces, in an event of a Leave Vote. The following will Happen:
-Fifth of the cars manufactured in Germany are sold in the Uk, and as results thousands of jobs will be lost.
-The U.K. Is the biggest customer for French wine and cheese industries, many French farmers will suffer as result.
-over two thirds of Irish beef is sold in the Uk, majority of Irish farmers will be devastated.
- and there other examples

Bare in mind, next year there will be elections in both France and Germany, I wonder what Merkel will say to those car manufacturers and in France what will Hollande say to French farmers,

The EU sells more to the UK, then the UK sells to the EU, so if the EU decides to play this dirty little game, they will suffer as result more then us.

In absolute terms, they sell more to you than you do to them. In relative terms, they sell a lot less.

You seem to expect them to respond in a coldly logical, economically rational manner (or, more precisely, logical and rational based on your flawed anaylsis) to a set of economically irrational actions, actions which seem to be based largely on xenophobia, nostalgia for the good old days when half the world was coloured red on an atlas, and a mixture of paranoia and delusions of grandeur on a scale not seen in Europe anywhere west of the "Donetsk People's Republic".

You might be lucky, but then the poison that the Leave campaign and its supportive media are injecting into the British body politic is unlikely to stay localised in the U.K. Insult and belittle people and you may find out that they decide not to play nice in response.

As for Ireland, you may think that we're your hostage, holding a gun to our head and promising to wreak bloody murder on us unless Germany and France play nice. In reality, I'm not confident that Germany and France will care all that much, but you know what? We survived Cromwell. We survived Lord John Russell. We survived the Black and Tans. If needs be, we will survive Michael f***ing Gove. (As I said, the poison is not going to stay localised in the U.K.)

[ag]

The worst of both worlds, lol.

I mean, if England Brexits, it deserves the worst of both world. It should become more integrated into European institutions than it is now, but without the seat at the table when these are negotiated. Hopefully, they would also force them to abandon the pound in exchange for retaining trade access.

There is no chance that Britain could be forced to adopt the basket case currency that is the Euro. While I will probably vote to remain your post is complete nonsense.

Well, obviously, as a punishment You wouldn't be forcing Britain to adopt the Euro for any other purpose

[ag]

The worst of both worlds, lol.

I mean, if England Brexits, it deserves the worst of both world. It should become more integrated into European institutions than it is now, but without the seat at the table when these are negotiated. Hopefully, they would also force them to abandon the pound in exchange for retaining trade access.

Same threats were made to Norway and Switzerland.
And if the EU countries decided cut their nose to spite their faces, in an event of a Leave Vote. The following will Happen:
-Fifth of the cars manufactured in Germany are sold in the Uk, and as results thousands of jobs will be lost.
-The U.K. Is the biggest customer for French wine and cheese industries, many French farmers will suffer as result.
-over two thirds of Irish beef is sold in the Uk, majority of Irish farmers will be devastated.
- and there other examples

Bare in mind, next year there will be elections in both France and Germany, I wonder what Merkel will say to those car manufacturers and in France what will Hollande say to French farmers,

The EU sells more to the UK, then the UK sells to the EU, so if the EU decides to play this dirty little game, they will suffer as result more then us.

And Norway and Switzerland are in Schengen, in case you did not notice.

Well, given what happens to the pound, Brits will be consuming a lot less of both cheeses and cars, anyway, whether they are punished or not. And given the transportation costs, it is not like a small tarrif hike would make the Brits buy cars in India by itself. And as for wine and cheese,.... I mean, they could import American cheese, if they so wish Then, again, since Scotland will, in all likelyhood, will be back in the EU within the two-year negotiation period (we will have to see about Wales, I guess), German cars and French cheese will have that market to themselves.  I guess, Scots will be eating more camembert and gorgonzola, and less wensleydale

Bearing in mind how much mind-baring is required to vote for Brexit, I mean...

[ag]

Europe is a much bigger market than the UK - that is even if we are talking of the "UK", and not of England, as we, probably, should. Negotiating advantage here would not be with the London government, whatever government it is.

[ag]

The worst of both worlds, lol.

I mean, if England Brexits, it deserves the worst of both world. It should become more integrated into European institutions than it is now, but without the seat at the table when these are negotiated. Hopefully, they would also force them to abandon the pound in exchange for retaining trade access.

Same threats were made to Norway and Switzerland.
And if the EU countries decided cut their nose to spite their faces, in an event of a Leave Vote. The following will Happen:
-Fifth of the cars manufactured in Germany are sold in the Uk, and as results thousands of jobs will be lost.
-The U.K. Is the biggest customer for French wine and cheese industries, many French farmers will suffer as result.
-over two thirds of Irish beef is sold in the Uk, majority of Irish farmers will be devastated.
- and there other examples

Bare in mind, next year there will be elections in both France and Germany, I wonder what Merkel will say to those car manufacturers and in France what will Hollande say to French farmers,

The EU sells more to the UK, then the UK sells to the EU, so if the EU decides to play this dirty little game, they will suffer as result more then us.

And Norway and Switzerland are in Schengen, in case you did not notice.

Well, given what happens to the pound, Brits will be consuming a lot less of both cheeses and cars, anyway, whether they are punished or not. And given the transportation costs, it is not like a small tarrif hike would make the Brits buy cars in India by itself. And as for wine and cheese,.... I mean, they could import American cheese, if they so wish Then, again, since Scotland will, in all likelyhood, will be back in the EU within the two-year negotiation period (we will have to see about Wales, I guess), German cars and French cheese will have that market to themselves.  I guess, Scots will be eating more camembert and gorgonzola, and less wensleydale

Bearing in mind how much mind-baring is required to vote for Brexit, I mean...

We might and they might, Britain might not even vote for brexit, only Time will tell us what will really happen
U might be surprised Wales is almost as Eurosecptic as England is according to most recent polls
Meant by Norway as they were bullied into join the EU, but voters rejected the joining the EU back in the 90s
Switzerland has voted recently against free movement of labour

If he scots decided to leave, that their democratic right,

It is your right to leave Europe. You are welcome to exercise it The fact, though, is, you need European integration a lot more than Europe needs you.  So you will have to negotiate. And you will start in a very bad negotiating position. Especially, given that you will almost certainly have to deal with a Scottish secession in the process (ok, ok, you can keep Wales ).

The fact is, Norway and Switzerland, though they have managed to retain sovereignty in a few areas that mattered for them the most (as, for that matter, has the UK), have been forced to give up much more to Europe than anybody would have thought possible. On most issues they are forced to adopt European policies without even having a chance to participate in their elaboration. The UK has always been a special case in the EU - a member that has resisted fully joining in. As a member, whose consent has been necessary for most changes, it has been able to negotiate these sorts of exceptions - in many cases more successfully, than, say Norway (not being part of Schengen is but one clear example).

Well, now it will not be a member. The London government will negotiate some sort of a Norway-like agreement. Since it will be negotiating it under the gun of losing access to European markets and with European negotiators, post referendum, quite inclined to tell the Brits to go have sex with themselves, if they so like, I doubt this agreement will be very advantageous, to begin with. In the future, though, things will be worse. Next time a European treaty is negotiated, there will be no English diplomats at the table, nor will ratification in Westminster be necessary for the agreement to pass. However, like the Norwegians and the Swiss these days, chances are that Brits will be forced to adopt many of the policy implications of such an agreement they will be no part of negotiating. Overall, Europe will become even less acceptable without the direct British influence - but it will have to be accepted, in order to avoid the cost of a full break.

So, in case Brexist wins, I fully expect England to be a part of Schengen zone, dutifully contributing to most European projects and normally adopting most European regulations, as sent from Brussels. A dinimished state with a sharply diminished role in the world. A benign curiosity.

[ag]

The problem for EU it's anti-democratic, and caused so much misery to poor people in the south of Europe,

The problem with this argument is, of course, that without the EU those Southern Europeans would have been a lot poorer and more miserable, and not only in recent years. Much of their prosperity for decades has been based on EU membership. Loss of some (though not all) of that is painful: but less painful than not having enjoyed it at all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I wonder if Saddiq Khan's election as London mayor brought home to people the fact that, for better or for worse, there are vast ethnic transformations under way in many parts of Britain, and some people actually don't want Britain to undergo this transformation, even though much of this is from non-EU immigration and Britain can already control this whether its in or out of the EU.

I really doubt that. There was more of a freakout about Khan's election from American internet users than people here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hm.  Seems like they will Brexit.

Hard to say; our polling industry is really, really sh!t. Two out of the last two General Elections wrong (and not in the same way!) does not inspire great confidence...

[Helsinkian]

It is your right to leave Europe.

"EU" is not the synonym of "Europe".

[Phony Moderate]

Ipsos-MORI: Remain 47, Leave 53. Previous poll had Remain 57-43 ahead. Don't know what the figures are including undecideds though.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

They've literally gone and changed methodology between polls. ffs.

[parochial boy]

Switzerland has voted recently against free movement of labour

Well, you see, no...

The Swiss did vote against free movement (just barely), but that hasn't been implemented yet; largely because the EU has told the Swiss where to go stick their referendum. The Swiss might yet put a cap on immigration, but just like the UK, that will probably lead to a push back from the EU.

So pulling out of Europe will do nothing to increase "democracy" or "accountability" in the UK.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

They've literally gone and changed methodology between polls. ffs.

Back to herding again, I see...

[IceAgeComing]

Hard to say; our polling industry is really, really sh!t. Two out of the last two General Elections wrong (and not in the same way!) does not inspire great confidence...

That's why an exit poll would have been good; they've been a lot more correct in recent elections than the opinion polls were - although they now use a methodology focusing on seat numbers that can't really give you a popular vote share, so I don't know if they could have used that clearly better methodology for the referendum...

[ChrisDR68]

It looks to me that the opinion polls broke in favour of Leave as soon as the migration figures came out on May 26th.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum

Since then there's been a consistent drift towards Brexit.

I'm still expecting some sort of movement back towards Remain at the start of next week though.

Looks like it's going to be a nail biter on polling night!