United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Tetro Kornbluth]

For those interested, here's a map of the AV referendum results. It is a pretty good proxy for 'Social Liberalism' (defined somewhat nebulously on purpose) in England. Note that in England the same areas (local authorities) that were used as counting areas in 2011 will be used as counting areas this time around. That is not the case in Wales or Scotland, which are also using local authorities on Thursday but used devolved parliamentary constituencies in 2011. This makes data comparisons much less straightforward than in England.

[ChrisDR68]

There is a sense that in many ways this referendum is an exercise in 'English nationalism' (and a particular sort of nationalism at that) and not anything remotely British in any sense. There are advantages in rUK voting out and Scotland voting in, whether that means we narrowly get pulled out or narrowly 'keep England in'.

The 'reticent unionist', concerned at the pound and remaining in the EU, rather than any particular attachment to the UK as a political entity are about 1 in 10 of the electorate and the key to what I do feel is inevitable independence, in the next 5, 10 or 20 years.

Couple of if's and but's here:

If the UK votes to Remain in the EU later on this week and if Scotland gets it's independence within the next 10-15 years (which like you I think will happen sooner or later) another vote for the rest of the UK to stay or go from the EU is quite likely in my view.

Why?

Because so long as the Euro single currency doesn't collapse the Eurozone will continue to amalgamate into a single country. The English and Welsh are not keen on this at all (and never have been).

Another in/out referendum at this point without the brake of Scottish Remain votes would very likely see England/Wales/Northern Ireland leave the European Union.

With a Remain vote on Thursday my feeling is that our departure from the EU will be delayed for a while but is in the long run inevitable.

[ObserverIE]

Because so long as the Euro single currency doesn't collapse the Eurozone will continue to amalgamate into a single country.

Any actual evidence to provide a basis for this assertion? I don't see any sign of Germany wishing to amalgamate into a single country with France, never mind Greece.

[Zinneke]

I wonder how many Scots will cynically vote for Leave to improve their (own) chances of independence.

Not many since a chunk of SNP voters do not want independence and another chunk are loyal to what Sturgeon and Salmond want them to do.

Fundamentalism (i.e independence through any means) in Scottish nationalism died around the 1990s. Gradualists have triumphed.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction:

54.4% REMAIN
45.6% Leave

Turnout: ~70%

Still sticking with my prediction, even after the disgusting killing of the Labour MP.

Turnout will probably be higher at ~75% though.

[Tetro Kornbluth]

52.5% Remain
47.5% Leave

Turnout: ~60%

[ChrisDR68]

Because so long as the Euro single currency doesn't collapse the Eurozone will continue to amalgamate into a single country.

Any actual evidence to provide a basis for this assertion? I don't see any sign of Germany wishing to amalgamate into a single country with France, never mind Greece.

Not a problem

Take a look at the last paragraph on page 4 from the Five President's Report written by Jean-Claude Juncker published last June:



Progress must happen on four fronts: first, towards a genuine Economic Union that ensures each economy has the structural features to prosper within the Monetary Union. Second, towards a Financial Union that guarantess the integrity of our currency across the Monetary Union and increases risk-sharing with the private sector. This means completing the Banking Union and accelerating the Capital Markets Union. Third, towards a Fiscal Union that delivers both fiscal sustainability and fiscal stabilisation. And finally, towards a Political Union that provides the foundation for all of the above through genuine democratic accountability, legitimacy and institutional strengthening.

Once they reach the political union stage a single European state will be a reality. It all very helpfully written in plain English too

The bolded bits are in the original text so I copied it.

https://ec.europa.eu/priorities/sites/beta-political/files/5-presidents-report_en.pdf

[DavidB.]

Prediction:

Remain 52.9%
Leave 47.1%

Turnout 63%

[Green Line]

53 Remain
47 Leave

My feeling is that the chances for Brexit have dropped to almost nothing.  Momentum is a powerful thing and Remain has got it now at just the right time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The turnout question is a fascinating one because no one really knows at all what to expect. Outside the small dedicated cores on either side the sort of enthusiasm that permeates during a General Election (and which was absolutely palpable during the Scottish referendum) is not present. Normally this would automatically mean a sub-50 turnout, but against that there is also clearly a widespread understanding that the vote is Important. This means that, and really unusually for Britain, a lot of people will be voting without enthusiasm (myself included). So the question then becomes: how many? Neither campaign knows because its pretty clear that neither have a great handle on things. The pollsters don't know because they never do (not even in a GE).

[YL]

The turnout question is a fascinating one because no one really knows at all what to expect. Outside the small dedicated cores on either side the sort of enthusiasm that permeates during a General Election (and which was absolutely palpable during the Scottish referendum) is not present. Normally this would automatically mean a sub-50 turnout, but against that there is also clearly a widespread understanding that the vote is Important. This means that, and really unusually for Britain, a lot of people will be voting without enthusiasm (myself included). So the question then becomes: how many? Neither campaign knows because its pretty clear that neither have a great handle on things. The pollsters don't know because they never do (not even in a GE).

Here (west Sheffield) it feels more like a General Election than a local one.  Some roads in Broomhill have a Remain poster in nearly every other house.  (OTOH, Leave is nearly invisible, but that's not particularly surprising.)

However, I do realise that here is not typical.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

There's a decent chance of disproportionately high (i.e. compared to normal) turnouts in university districts.

[afleitch]

Something fun from Populus

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...though be careful not to treat that sort of thing as anything other than a bit of fun. British poll internals (even when aggregated) are not particularly reliable at the best of times.

Having said that the striking thing (assuming an unrealistic level of accuracy) is actually the relative uniformity, particularly when generational-related variables are ignored. Which perhaps isn't that shocking on an issue as 'unusual' as this one.

[Angel of Death]

Does the age divide suggest that a Brexit referendum might have had a better chance of succeeding some time in the past, because support depends on the age in which someone is living, or is it rather the opposite, because it depends on the age one has attained?

[Dutch Conservative]

53 Remain
47 Leave

My feeling is that the chances for Brexit have dropped to almost nothing.  Momentum is a powerful thing and Remain has got it now at just the right time.

I have the same feeling, although I keep hoping the momentum will turn. Is it possible the debate of tomorrow night will have some impact?

[Rocky Rockefeller]

So lets say that remain wins albeit narrowly, lets say 52%, do you guys think Cameron hangs on or is he doomed either way?

[parochial boy]

There is still every possibility that the polls are completely wrong. Referendums are hard enough to poll as it is, especially one that would seem to be falling completely outside of traditional party lines, meaning party loyalty is not much use as an indicator of how people might vote.

There could also be a massive "shy" effect for both leave and remain; leave voters not wanting to look racist; or remain voters who don't want to face the abuse that has been given out both on line, and face to face for remain canvassers in certain areas. That and the likelihood that "don't knows" will pull mainly for remain on the day.

There are also the persistant rumours about the Postal Vote returns being heavily "leave" even though that is to be expected, as postal voters skew old; and  it should technically be illegal for anyone to know how postal vote returns are looking, as the votes are supposed to be turned down when opened, without being looked at.

Based on today's polls, I would expect 55-45 for remain in the end.

But I wouldn't be shocked if it ends up as much as 60-40 to either side.

[rob in cal]

    Do we have any idea of the postal vote returns by region?  Not the results of course, but how many ballots have been returned.

[Hnv1]

Remain 52 Leave 48, all of my British mates from London are voting remain with all my chav friends fro the home counties voting leave. I reckon it'll be closer than predicted.
Remain win in: London, Cornwall, North East (by small margin), Scotland, NI, Wales (by a razor thin margin). Leave wins the rest.

Cameron still ousted within a year and Ukip will have a field day with the remain victory relying on the 'celtic' vote

[IceAgeComing]

53 Remain
47 Leave

My feeling is that the chances for Brexit have dropped to almost nothing.  Momentum is a powerful thing and Remain has got it now at just the right time.

I have the same feeling, although I keep hoping the momentum will turn. Is it possible the debate of tomorrow night will have some impact?

Doubt it; the other debates haven't seemed to have done anything.  Although I've not seen any viewing figures, I'd imagine that they are pretty low.

Just going to stick my neck out in terms of a prediction: I'm going for 53.5%-46.5% Remain on a 64% turnout.  I can't see us beating a General Election turnout, but it'll be close.

[ObserverIE]

Because so long as the Euro single currency doesn't collapse the Eurozone will continue to amalgamate into a single country.

Any actual evidence to provide a basis for this assertion? I don't see any sign of Germany wishing to amalgamate into a single country with France, never mind Greece.

Progress must happen on four fronts: first, towards a genuine Economic Union that ensures each economy has the structural features to prosper within the Monetary Union. Second, towards a Financial Union that guarantess the integrity of our currency across the Monetary Union and increases risk-sharing with the private sector. This means completing the Banking Union and accelerating the Capital Markets Union. Third, towards a Fiscal Union that delivers both fiscal sustainability and fiscal stabilisation. And finally, towards a Political Union that provides the foundation for all of the above through genuine democratic accountability, legitimacy and institutional strengthening.

Once they reach the political union stage a single European state will be a reality. It all very helpfully written in plain English too

The bolded bits are in the original text so I copied it.

https://ec.europa.eu/priorities/sites/beta-political/files/5-presidents-report_en.pdf

We have, frankly, been listening to this kind of bullsh:t from the Junckers and Schulzes and their predecessors for ever. It makes a ritual nod towards the tiny minority of serious federalists but it has the side-effect of increasing the paranoia of the tinfoil-hat brigades, especially in the UK, and it gets ignored by the actual national governments, except possibly in the Augustinian sense of "make me holy, Lord, but not yet". There is absolutely no sign of any of it coming to pass. They haven't even got as far as the first stage of getting monetary union to work properly yet.

When I hear it coming from Merkel and Hollande (or their successors) with concrete timelines I'll take it seriously. Until then it's simply the same guff that's been recycled all your lifetime and mine.

[ObserverIE]

Remain 52 Leave 48, all of my British mates from London are voting remain with all my chav friends fro the home counties voting leave. I reckon it'll be closer than predicted.
Remain win in: London, Cornwall, North East (by small margin), Scotland, NI, Wales (by a razor thin margin). Leave wins the rest.

Cameron still ousted within a year and Ukip will have a field day with the remain victory relying on the 'celtic' vote

The North-West (Liverpool, Manchester) is more likely to be Remain than Cornwall.

If it's a narrow Remain, then Cameron struggles on for a year while UKIP and the Tory Right polish their Dolchstoßlegende about "money and the ethnic vote" (to paraphrase Jacques Parizeau), before the enmities stoked up within the Tory party produce a leadership coup and/or civil war.

If it's a narrow Leave, then Cameron goes immediately, and is replaced by Johnson, who probably calls a quick "khaki" general election. You then get an economic programme implemented afterwards well to the right of anything we've seen before. If (if?) economic turbulence ensues, then the search will begin for new domestic and external scapegoats. The London Mayoral Election will look like an exercise in subtlety in retrospect.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

I might sound terrible for this, but could it be that the murder of MP Jo Cox might have had swayed people to support Remain? Because the polls after her murder show support for Brexit dropping and Remain rising.

[Crumpets]

I might sound terrible for this, but could it be that the murder of MP Jo Cox might have had swayed people to support Remain? Because the polls after her murder show support for Brexit dropping and Remain rising.

Yes. It seems fairly likely that this is the case. I imagine it's not so much people switching their opinions, but "soft" remain supporters becoming more vocal and likely to vote.