United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership
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Author Topic: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership  (Read 175437 times)
LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #675 on: June 23, 2016, 02:59:23 PM »

Anyone know where to find results (i know they don't come in for another hour, but still)
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #676 on: June 23, 2016, 03:08:41 PM »
« Edited: June 23, 2016, 03:12:26 PM by IceAgeComing »

I imagine that the BBC will have a page up; I'm not going to look until the polls close.

First results should be around 12:30 if the predicted declaration times are near right; Sunderland will probably be first.  The flood probably won't be until around 2:30-3am; unless its really close it'll be clear before then

e: Here you go
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LLR
LongLiveRock
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« Reply #677 on: June 23, 2016, 03:12:45 PM »

http://www.bbc.com/news/politics/eu_referendum/results

Results will appear here Smiley
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DL
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« Reply #678 on: June 23, 2016, 03:34:08 PM »

Apparently the pound and the FTSE index surged at the close of business which suggests that major banks and bond traders who may have commissioned their own election day polling are increasingly confident of a Remain victory.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #679 on: June 23, 2016, 03:41:20 PM »

FYI for Americans with cable, C-SPAN will be covering IVT's coverage of the vote starting at 5pm ET.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #680 on: June 23, 2016, 03:42:43 PM »

Apparently the pound and the FTSE index surged at the close of business which suggests that major banks and bond traders who may have commissioned their own election day polling are increasingly confident of a Remain victory.

I've been hearing rumours that the private exit polls that some of the hedge funds commissioned may be indicating a fairly comfortable win for remain.

Remains to be seen whether that is the case though; if I remember, Yougov's "recontact" pseudo-exit poll at the General Election was just as far off the mark as all the pre-election polling.
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cp
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« Reply #681 on: June 23, 2016, 03:52:34 PM »

So weather in London has been dreadful. Hot, humid, intermittent brutal showers, and flooding which has shutdown transportation. The boyfriend, who finished exams on friday and needed to get to South London to vote(he is for remain) is stuck on an Oxford to London bus for the third hour on what is supposed to be a 90 minute trip and is not half done. Odds of him getting to vote at all are probably around 40%, and he is far from alone. The nature of the electoral register, the need to vote at home, and the weather are meaning that the situation in London is bad.

London is mainly remain, right?

Think things like this will have a big impact on the vote?

Young remainers think they will. I personally suspect the impact will be marginal(10-15K reduced margin for Remain) though it will be concentrated among the loudest and politically engaged young voters. Oxbridge had their last exams today meaning anyone wanting to vote had to get home after exams which is looking impossible across the board. In the nationwide tallies, preventing Oxford students from voting really does not matter. Perceptionally it is huge.
Well around 30K England supporters in France probably mostly leave voters. This little dips go for both sides

Have just got off a flight from Ibiza to London - delayed by the storms and the French air traffic strike - overheard a clutch of brummy-sounding middle aged women complain how they won't get a chance to vote and wondering if they'll keep the polling places open longer.

Didn't ask them how they'd have voted, sadly.
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ag
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« Reply #682 on: June 23, 2016, 04:01:40 PM »

Polls closed?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #683 on: June 23, 2016, 04:01:46 PM »

Yup.
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joevsimp
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« Reply #684 on: June 23, 2016, 04:04:55 PM »

slightly late, but how closely do we think that these results will correlate with the AV referendum? I think it will be reasonably close, not many glaring outliers but not in lockstep
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #685 on: June 23, 2016, 04:05:57 PM »

Surprisingly, Nigel Farage himself immediately stated he thinks Remain has won.
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Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
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« Reply #686 on: June 23, 2016, 04:06:49 PM »

YouGov 'on the day' (not an exit) poll has Remain ahead by 52-48.
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jaichind
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« Reply #687 on: June 23, 2016, 04:06:55 PM »

You gov.  52 48 for remain
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #688 on: June 23, 2016, 04:08:25 PM »

Surprisingly, Nigel Farage himself immediately stated he thinks Remain has won.

Apparently based on an internal poll by Leave... that's not a concession, but that's not something I've ever heard that quickly in any election I've watched.
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jaichind
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« Reply #689 on: June 23, 2016, 04:10:04 PM »

Leave EU also has it 52 48 for remain
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jaichind
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« Reply #690 on: June 23, 2016, 04:11:40 PM »

Various hedge fund exit polls also seem to have it close to 52 48 for remain
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #691 on: June 23, 2016, 04:12:16 PM »

Leave EU also has it 52 48 for remain

Who did the work, any indication of methods etc?
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Matty
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« Reply #692 on: June 23, 2016, 04:14:15 PM »

84% turnout.

wow.

Folks on twitter saying that could F*** with the models the polls use.
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Green Line
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« Reply #693 on: June 23, 2016, 04:14:24 PM »

Wow, 52-48 means we won't know for a LONG time.  Exciting!
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #694 on: June 23, 2016, 04:14:55 PM »

IDS says there's been a far bigger turn out than usual on council estates; of course, the composition of council estates varies between areas.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #695 on: June 23, 2016, 04:15:12 PM »

84% turnout.

wow.

Folks on twitter saying that could F*** with the models the polls use.
Do you have a source on this?
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Angel of Death
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« Reply #696 on: June 23, 2016, 04:17:04 PM »

84% turnout.

wow.

Folks on twitter saying that could F*** with the models the polls use.
Do you have a source on this?

Sky News is giving an estimated turnout of 83.7%.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #697 on: June 23, 2016, 04:17:32 PM »

Leave has been collapsing in the prediction markets. Predictit has Leave at 9 cents.
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IceAgeComing
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« Reply #698 on: June 23, 2016, 04:17:46 PM »

84% turnout.

wow.

Folks on twitter saying that could F*** with the models the polls use.

That's only the Gibraltar turnout at this point
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○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└
jfern
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« Reply #699 on: June 23, 2016, 04:18:26 PM »

84% turnout.

wow.

Folks on twitter saying that could F*** with the models the polls use.

That's only the Gibraltar turnout at this point

Yeah, I doubt Gibraltar is a bellwether.
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