United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Cassius]

Leave shouldn't be too cocky - it was a good result for them in Sunderland, but it's one result, and we could see it balanced out by similarly large victories for Remain in their strongholds, which I suspect may be the case (and as others have pointed out, whilst the Newcastle result was good for Leave, it was hardly hostile terrain for them).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

'Expectations' were based off obviously dubious statistical modeling (dangerously so in the case of Newcastle). We don't really know exactly what to expect from a lot of places. I'd guess based off what we have that the result will be fairly tight, but we'll see.

Sunderland result slightly stronger for Leave than early count rumours (which will have been based off canvassing as much as anything else) but slightly weaker than later count rumours. Useless info there.

[IceAgeComing]

The North East did vote differently to the rest of England in 2015; that might have happened again.

Here's where the lack of an exit poll is annoying

[Mehmentum]

Completely wiped out the Remain vote lead with that result

Again a whoop-whistler who has no idea what he is talking about. Sunderland is a depressed industrial city that was expected to go to Leave.

?  My statement is a fact.

If everybody reports leads being wiped out until 3am this thread is pointless.

So you expect us to not talk about results as they come in?  Sounds boring.

[Green Line]

Completely wiped out the Remain vote lead with that result

Again a whoop-whistler who has no idea what he is talking about. Sunderland is a depressed industrial city that was expected to go to Leave.

?  My statement is a fact.

If everybody reports leads being wiped out until 3am this thread is pointless.

I'm going to keep reporting the results.  Sorry you're salty!

[jaichind]

GBP recovering from Sunderland.  It was down 3.6% right after Sunderland.  Now it is down 1.8%.

[ag]

I am more concerned about Clakcmannashire: anemic.

Really keeping fingers crossed for Europe.

[afleitch]

I was joking with my post btw If it was up to the NE and it's early reporting, we'd have Labour landslides year on year.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Reports that more than 60% of Crawley residents have voted for the UK to leave the EU #EUref

[rob in cal]

What would have been a good Clakmannshire result for the remain side?

[ag]

What would have been a good Clakmannshire result for the remain side?

I do not know, but I hate seeing anything in Scotland at under 60%.

[afleitch]

What would have been a good Clakmannshire result for the remain side?

The pre polling model has it, and Orkney, spot on.

[Clyde1998]

What would have been a good Clakmannshire result for the remain side?

The pre polling model has it, and Orkney, spot on.

Do you have a list for the expected results based on the polling modelling?

[jaichind]

Reports that more than 60% of Crawley residents have voted for the UK to leave the EU #EUref

This plus other rumors from other parts of UK seems to indicate that leave is much stronger than expected.  Remain has to hope that London and the South is polarized the other direction for remain.

[jaichind]

I found this as a pre-poll model for England

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0

[ag]

Why have they stopped giving us more results? This is horribly nerve-wrecking.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Congrats David Cameron whose legacy is on par with Lord North. So long Scotland! so long UK being considered a mature and sensible economy!! We had to ibg throw it all down the fuxk sink because of the feelzzz of the Brexitans and their depraved TrueLefy cousins. I bet George Galloway is feeling so great about  himself ugh squeezing up to evey fascist ratcase to boost his ing ego. ugh when the NHS is asset stripped away I bet that tusc will feel sooo great that they defeated the neoliberal Jews or whatever, anti semitic trash.

[jaichind]

Why have they stopped giving us more results? This is horribly nerve-wrecking.

Because the count is very slow.  There are no results.

[Clyde1998]

I found this as a pre-poll model for England

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0

Thank you.

[ag]

NI: Foyle reports 78.3% for remain!

[Clyde1998]

Sky News are suggesting that Leave are doing better than expected in Wales as well.

[Green Line]

57% turnout in Foyle, NI.  Seems low to me, what was turnout expected to be in NI?

[jaichind]

It seems the LAB vote is swinging toward leave more than expected.  Remain better hope that CON vote in the South over-perform for remain.

[afleitch]

We may find in some areas that Labour voters who can't be arsed to vote in a Labour government, are coming out for Leave.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

So, maybe terrible comparison, but could it be said that Labour Leave voters would be equivalent to the Sanders wing of the Democratic party?