United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[jaichind]

Rumours that John McDonnell is involved in moves against Corbyn.

But even with these results it seems to me in an re-election campaign Corbyn would win a grassroots vote.

[afleitch]

Labour voters were strongly remain in Scotland. Of course they aren't Labour voters anymore. But they did get the message of the remain campaign. Voters can buy into a 'party' message (in this case the SNP) if they are engaged with that party. It's clear Labour have an issue when it comes to connecting with their voters and results like this flow from that.

[jaichind]

The likely Brexit victory is good news for Trump.  The Brexit coalition is exactly the type of coalition Trump is trying to build.  Different context might make it not work in USA but such a coalition showing that it can win in UK can only be good news for Trump.

It seems Preditit agrees.  Trump shares there up 5% since last night.

[afleitch]

SNP making a move now to bring forward legislation to enact a second referendum if required.

[afleitch]

Also, Sturgeon has said she has talked to Mayor Khan in London which is interesting.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

I have one question:


why people/media really consider Johnson as almost 100% sure candidate for PM if Tories were mostly for Remain? Really party itself will change its stance so quickly (maybe to stop UKIP surge?Although elections are in 2020).

[Hnv1]

Also, Sturgeon has said she has talked to Mayor Khan in London which is interesting.

Khan can't negotiate on behalf of London, they're not a city state, if goes for a separate arrangement than the UK I could well see it taken down by Parliament of the new Supreme Court

[jaichind]

33.58 million people voted on 72.2% turnout.  So in terms of total votes cast this still does not break the 1992 record which I believe is 33.59 million.

[Hnv1]

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/sinn-f-calls-border-poll-re-assess-northern-irelands-place-uk

NI referendum coming?

[afleitch]

[afleitch]

Moves against Corbyn now.

[jaichind]

Yes, but EU is dependent on UK trading as well and an UK exit from EU will involved very favorable trade deals for both sides to keep as much of the trade flow as possible.

[Zinneke]

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/sinn-f-calls-border-poll-re-assess-northern-irelands-place-uk

NI referendum coming?

SF have been talking about a border poll for a while now. They will settle for more devolution, potentially with the opportunity to join the single market.

[Clyde1998]

Also, what is wrong with our polling industry?

It seems the privately commissioned exit polls (as well as the other polls released on the day) were the cause of some of the pre-Newcastle/Sunderland optimism for Remain, so they weren't up to much either.

The demographic model the BBC were using had its faults, but correctly indicated that those early results were bad news.  Could John Curtice and team have carried out a proper exit poll if given the resources to do so?

They said they couldn't do an exit poll, as they didn't know what polling stations would be typical of an area and a referendum is a one-off event.

[Cassius]

If the people of Scotland wish to leave the UK and Join the EU, then that's their democratic will, after all they voted by over 60% to stay and it's not right to be pulled out if they didn't want to.

Hmm, on the other hand, when you go down that route, it also begs the question of why Mole Valley Local Authority isn't allowed to do the same? Or what would have happened if the Moray Local Authority in Scotland has voted to leave (which it almost did)?

[Blair]

I think I need a strong drink of some-sort

[bore]

If the people of Scotland wish to leave the UK and Join the EU, then that's their democratic will, after all they voted by over 60% to stay and it's not right to be pulled out if they didn't want to.

Hmm, on the other hand, when you go down that route, it also begs the question of why Mole Valley Local Authority isn't allowed to do the same? Or what would have happened if the Moray Local Authority in Scotland has voted to leave (which it almost did)?

Thinking that Scotland's situation is comparable to the Mole Valley Local Authority (or hell, Lambeth), is precisely the type of thinking that makes so many scots want independence.

[Clyde1998]

[afleitch]

Lord Ashcroft's 'morning after' poll is out.

[jeron]

If the people of Scotland wish to leave the UK and Join the EU, then that's their democratic will, after all they voted by over 60% to stay and it's not right to be pulled out if they didn't want to.

Does this apply to the apply to the people of Northern Ireland as well, then?

[reciprocity]

Wow, I am shocked! I am sad at the result. The uncertainty is so worrying.

I think a lot of Labour leavers are still going to vote Labour. To be honest with you, UKIP is pretty much done now and I do not think they will gain in the long run. If the Wales Assembly election was any barometer, Labour still held out pretty well. I think as someone said, this was not a vote based on party loyalties. Once the next general comes around and the new focus on UKIP becomes their disastrous libertarian economic policies, they will lose a lot of support. Strangely enough, Is it just me or does a lot of their main signature policies seem like a lot of the pro-EU centre right parties in Eastern Europe? Like flatter taxes and balanced budgets? Jeez, help us all.

And just to add, do you think that if Cameron had made Scotland Independence an issue, would we have seen England edge out a Remain victory?

[Zinneke]

If the people of Scotland wish to leave the UK and Join the EU, then that's their democratic will, after all they voted by over 60% to stay and it's not right to be pulled out if they didn't want to.

Does this apply to the apply to the people of Northern Ireland as well, then?

No because Northern Ireland has two nations, not one, and have chosen to govern by conensus. Completely different political culture to Scotland and indeed the rest of the UK.

[Dereich]

And it begins:

Sources at Morgan Stanley tell BBC it's already begun process of moving 2,000 London based investment banking staff to Dublin or Frankfurt.

RIP The City

[reciprocity]

And it begins:

Sources at Morgan Stanley tell BBC it's already begun process of moving 2,000 London based investment banking staff to Dublin or Frankfurt.

RIP The City

Oh great.

[Zinneke]

Im more worried about the effect this will have on the UK's housing industry and massive private debt bubble. What happens if their interest rates start rising? Or wages stagnate? Or FDIs vanish? At least London will have affordable housing after the biggest bubble burst since...US 2007

Luckliy Mark Carney is the only man showing intelligence, leadership and statesmanlike behaviour. And he's Canadian.