United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #1900 on: July 06, 2016, 09:39:30 PM »

^

 we're actually going to do this. The future of the economy is going to be settled by a vote of the Tory membership.

Doesn't that make you feel warm and fuzzy inside?

And if it doesn't, remember this is what the average Conservative membership looks like



Too many non-whites.
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Slow Learner
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« Reply #1901 on: July 07, 2016, 01:37:28 AM »
« Edited: July 07, 2016, 05:03:36 AM by Battenberg »

Andrea Leadsom seems like one if those politicians over here who'd fit right in with the Republicans.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #1902 on: July 10, 2016, 04:15:53 AM »

Out of curiosity, will there ever be a way to see the referendum results by constituency?

I think one of the most disturbing things Labour has to face is that a lot of their typical voters (particularly in the North) voted against the party position to Remain. The first British election I closely followed was 2005, when I was 17 (CNN even aired some of the live individual constituency results). I remember playing around with the Swingometer a lot to see what could happen, like to see what it would take to take to defeat the any of the party leaders. I remember it being some almost astronomical swing to defeat Tony Blair in his own seat.

The reason I mention that is because I was looking at some of the results in more detail. Is it possible that Tony Blair's old Sedgefield seat actually voted Leave? As much as I couldn't and still can't stand Blair, he still did lead Labour to greatness for three consecutive elections. If areas like those are leaving Labour, I hope the party will recognize what is happening in time for the next election. As an American Labour supporter, I hope they do. Labour cannot afford to lose white working class voters like the Democrats here have.

At this point, I really miss the UK that voted for Tony Blair three times considering what's coming next. So long as Boris Johnson wasn't a serious contender, I've been expecting Theresa May to win. May seems to at least be mainstream, although I think she'd stand a strong chance at winning another majority in 2020. On the other hand, I doubt Leadsom's ability to win a majority in 2020 (although they'd still probably be first in a Hung Parliament, assuming the UK as we know it is still intact), but she's not the type I'd like to see as Prime Minister for the next four years.
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1903 on: July 10, 2016, 05:57:11 AM »

So far, it has been down to local authorities to release their results. A few, such as Birmingham, have released ward level data, from which you can infer constituency level results, but most have not. Even there, as postal votes weren't counted at ward level, the numbers won't be completely accurate.

Chris Hanretty has calculated and estimate  of the vote by constituency, but it is an estimate based on demographics only, so could be wrong.

I would say without the slightest shadow of a doubt that Sedgefield votes out, seeing as Newcastle was the only local authority in the North East to vote remain, the rest wasn't even close.

Labour is obviously in a bind at the moment with regards to their traditional vote, although it has been declining for years - both to UKIP and to declining turnout, the BNP, SNP even the Lib Dems before that, which has become a source of major angst to the party.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1904 on: July 10, 2016, 07:44:13 PM »

Sedgefield must have voted Leave, and probably over 60% - Durham voted 57.5 to Leave, and that includes not just Sedgefield but the University town of Durham itself, which is hard to imagine as anything other as quite strong for Remain (the town itself that itself - not its surrounding hinterland, oh no).
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1905 on: July 11, 2016, 12:33:50 AM »

   I'm wondering about how the Labor party vote went in non-London area Labor held seats.  If in fact 70% of Labor voters in total voted against Brexit, how did so many Labor held seats go for Brexit?  Would it be something like 40% of Labor voters in these areas going for Brexit, plus the UKIPers in the district, plus 60% of Tory voters, all of this combined equaling the big majorities for Brexit in so many of these areas?
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YL
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« Reply #1906 on: July 11, 2016, 01:55:15 AM »

   I'm wondering about how the Labor party vote went in non-London area Labor held seats.  If in fact 70% of Labor voters in total voted against Brexit, how did so many Labor held seats go for Brexit?  Would it be something like 40% of Labor voters in these areas going for Brexit, plus the UKIPers in the district, plus 60% of Tory voters, all of this combined equaling the big majorities for Brexit in so many of these areas?

You would also need to consider people who don't normally vote.  On Hanretty's list (which obviously isn't entirely accurate, but is the best we've got) one of the strongest Labour seats for Leave was Normanton, Pontefract and Castleford, where Hanretty estimates a Leave vote of 71%.  The general election turnout there was just 55.6%, in Hemsworth 58.3%, in Wakefield 60.9%, and in Morley & Outwood (partly within the borough) 53.3%, and the referendum turnout in Wakefield district was 71.2%.

But we're never going to know exactly how things broke down.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1907 on: July 11, 2016, 02:21:01 AM »

Tories ain't never gonna win the uber-working-class Labour areas, period. And FPP makes it very difficult for UKIP to really make a dent there either, though in this case I can't bring myself to quite say "never".
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #1908 on: July 11, 2016, 03:35:18 AM »
« Edited: July 11, 2016, 04:17:43 AM by JerryArkansas »

Got really bored and couldn't sleep, so here are some results of the referendum by Parliamentary constituency where I could find them.  Only got about 50, but it's better than nothing.



Now realize I am tired, so any mistakes are do to that fact.  I mostly used that link to the google docs and used the results that were listed in the column that was marked local authority results.

Also going through conclile websites and seeing if they have ward data posted, if so, using that to add to the map.  Already getting Bristol done with that.  However it is kind of hard since some wards have been combined and renamed since the districts were drawn.  If I come across that, I'll just map an educated guess at to where they fall.
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #1909 on: July 11, 2016, 05:14:40 AM »

Got really bored and couldn't sleep, so here are some results of the referendum by Parliamentary constituency where I could find them.  Only got about 50, but it's better than nothing.



Now realize I am tired, so any mistakes are do to that fact.  I mostly used that link to the google docs and used the results that were listed in the column that was marked local authority results.

Also going through conclile websites and seeing if they have ward data posted, if so, using that to add to the map.  Already getting Bristol done with that.  However it is kind of hard since some wards have been combined and renamed since the districts were drawn.  If I come across that, I'll just map an educated guess at to where they fall.

Yes keep going with that if you can.

I'd love to see a final seat total for Remain and Leave.

Given the geographical spread of the Leave vote in England and Wales I'm guessing there was a sizeable majority of between 50 and 100 seats in their favour overall in the UK.
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YL
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« Reply #1910 on: July 11, 2016, 01:56:50 PM »

Hanretty's model overestimates Leave on Merseyside.

In Liverpool, he has Leave votes of 35%, 61%, 44% and 59% for Riverside, Walton, West Derby and Wavertree respectively, and 56% in Garston & Halewood (the majority of which is in the city).  Crudely averaged, these give an even split or very slight Leave majority, but the city voted 58% Remain.

In Sefton, he estimates Leave wins in all three constituencies (52% in Sefton Central and Southport, 59% in Bootle), but Remain won the borough.

Similar calculations suggest significant overestimation of Leave support in Wirral and Knowsley.

OTOH, in Sheffield the citywide result matches his model pretty well, though unfortunately the count wasn't done by ward so we'll never know just how polarised the result was.  (Hanretty's model has Leave votes of 30% in Central and 35% in Hallam, but 58% in Heeley, 61% in Brightside & Hillsborough and Penistone & Stocksbridge and as high as 67% in South East.  I don't find these numbers implausible.)
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #1911 on: July 11, 2016, 06:36:25 PM »

Hanretty's model overestimates Leave on Merseyside.

In Liverpool, he has Leave votes of 35%, 61%, 44% and 59% for Riverside, Walton, West Derby and Wavertree respectively, and 56% in Garston & Halewood (the majority of which is in the city).  Crudely averaged, these give an even split or very slight Leave majority, but the city voted 58% Remain.

In Sefton, he estimates Leave wins in all three constituencies (52% in Sefton Central and Southport, 59% in Bootle), but Remain won the borough.

Similar calculations suggest significant overestimation of Leave support in Wirral and Knowsley.

OTOH, in Sheffield the citywide result matches his model pretty well, though unfortunately the count wasn't done by ward so we'll never know just how polarised the result was.  (Hanretty's model has Leave votes of 30% in Central and 35% in Hallam, but 58% in Heeley, 61% in Brightside & Hillsborough and Penistone & Stocksbridge and as high as 67% in South East.  I don't find these numbers implausible.)
Its the reason why I don't want ot use his model.  In a few places, the model did ok, but in others it was way off, going both ways.  Some way overestimating of Leave percentage, by like 10 to 15 points, and the flip of that.
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vileplume
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« Reply #1912 on: July 11, 2016, 06:38:30 PM »

^

 we're actually going to do this. The future of the economy is going to be settled by a vote of the Tory membership.

Doesn't that make you feel warm and fuzzy inside?

And if it doesn't, remember this is what the average Conservative membership looks like



Too many non-whites.

Well the Tories do quite well with certain ethnic minorities nowadays. Chinese voters are heavily Tory and the Indian vote has been trending Tory of late (they outpolled Labour with this demographic at the last election). Jewish voters are also strongly Tory but they don't really count as an ethnic minority though.
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vileplume
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« Reply #1913 on: July 11, 2016, 06:48:57 PM »
« Edited: July 11, 2016, 06:57:20 PM by vileplume »

Got really bored and couldn't sleep, so here are some results of the referendum by Parliamentary constituency where I could find them.  Only got about 50, but it's better than nothing.



Now realize I am tired, so any mistakes are do to that fact.  I mostly used that link to the google docs and used the results that were listed in the column that was marked local authority results.

Also going through conclile websites and seeing if they have ward data posted, if so, using that to add to the map.  Already getting Bristol done with that.  However it is kind of hard since some wards have been combined and renamed since the districts were drawn.  If I come across that, I'll just map an educated guess at to where they fall.

You can do Bristol as all the new wards are still kept entirely within one of the four constituencies.

These are some constituency results from other local authorities that released ward data you can add to your map if you want (there may be more):

South West:

Bristol North West: 58.4% Remain
Bristol East: 53.2% Remain
Bristol South: 52.9% Remain
Bristol West: 79.3% Remain

London:

Greenwich and Woolwich: 64.3% Remain
Eltham: 51.8% Leave
Streatham: 79.5% Remain
Vauxhall: 77.4% Remain
Feltham and Heston: 55.9% Leave
Brentford and Isleworth: 56.7% Remain
Ealing North: 53.7% Remain
Ealing Southall: 58.2% Remain
Ealing Central and Acton: 70.8% Remain
Holborn and St Pancras: 73.3% Remain

West Midlands:

Wolverhampton North East: 67.7% Leave
Wolverhampton South West: 54.4% Leave
Aldridge-Brownhills: 67.8% Leave
Walsall North: 74.2% Leave
Walsall South: 61.6% Leave

East Midlands:

Nottingham North: 63.8% Leave
Nottingham East: 57.1% Remain
Nottingham South: 53.1% Remain
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1914 on: July 11, 2016, 07:01:02 PM »

Ooh there are Ealing ward results? Linky?
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vileplume
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« Reply #1915 on: July 11, 2016, 07:03:21 PM »

Ooh there are Ealing ward results? Linky?

http://www.ealingtoday.co.uk/default.asp?section=info&page=eabrexitresults001.htm
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1916 on: July 11, 2016, 07:06:51 PM »


Diolch!

So Northolt, Greenford and Southall proper (and a relatively weak turnout in the latter) as the weakest areas for Remain; as expected, but still interesting. Sikhs for Brexit not just a West Midlands thing then...
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #1917 on: July 11, 2016, 08:46:06 PM »
« Edited: July 11, 2016, 08:47:51 PM by JerryArkansas »

Got really bored and couldn't sleep, so here are some results of the referendum by Parliamentary constituency where I could find them.  Only got about 50, but it's better than nothing.



Now realize I am tired, so any mistakes are do to that fact.  I mostly used that link to the google docs and used the results that were listed in the column that was marked local authority results.

Also going through conclile websites and seeing if they have ward data posted, if so, using that to add to the map.  Already getting Bristol done with that.  However it is kind of hard since some wards have been combined and renamed since the districts were drawn.  If I come across that, I'll just map an educated guess at to where they fall.

You can do Bristol as all the new wards are still kept entirely within one of the four constituencies.

These are some constituency results from other local authorities that released ward data you can add to your map if you want (there may be more):

South West:

Bristol North West: 58.4% Remain
Bristol East: 53.2% Remain
Bristol South: 52.9% Remain
Bristol West: 79.3% Remain

London:

Greenwich and Woolwich: 64.3% Remain
Eltham: 51.8% Leave
Streatham: 79.5% Remain
Vauxhall: 77.4% Remain
Feltham and Heston: 55.9% Leave
Brentford and Isleworth: 56.7% Remain
Ealing North: 53.7% Remain
Ealing Southall: 58.2% Remain
Ealing Central and Acton: 70.8% Remain
Holborn and St Pancras: 73.3% Remain

West Midlands:

Wolverhampton North East: 67.7% Leave
Wolverhampton South West: 54.4% Leave
Aldridge-Brownhills: 67.8% Leave
Walsall North: 74.2% Leave
Walsall South: 61.6% Leave

East Midlands:

Nottingham North: 63.8% Leave
Nottingham East: 57.1% Remain
Nottingham South: 53.1% Remain
Thanks for that.  When I did the results for Bristol, I got some different results.

Bristol North West: 58.2% Remain
Bristol East: 57.6% Remain
Bristol South: 51.8% Remain
Bristol West: 80% Remain

Same with Vauxhall, I got 79%.

Edit nevermind I know why, I wasn't counting rejected ballots, inflating the numbers.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1918 on: July 11, 2016, 09:07:55 PM »
« Edited: July 11, 2016, 09:16:51 PM by Tetro Kornbluth »

Plymouth has also released ward-level data. I don't know how that shakes up on the constituency level though.

EDIT: So has Peterborough

EDIT2:Salford
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Joe Republic
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« Reply #1919 on: July 11, 2016, 11:48:39 PM »

Looking at the results both in this referendum and the AV vote in 2011, the area around the Wash seems... quite... consistent.
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vileplume
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« Reply #1920 on: July 12, 2016, 07:03:42 AM »

Plymouth has also released ward-level data. I don't know how that shakes up on the constituency level though.

EDIT: So has Peterborough

EDIT2:Salford

Thanks for that Smiley. Here are results by constituency level for Plymouth Moor View, Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Salford and Eccles, Worsley and Eccles South. It is not possible to come up with exact figures for Peterborough though as ward boundary changes mean that several wards are now part in the Peterborough constituency and part in Cambridgeshire North West.

Plymouth Moor View: 66.4% Leave
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport: 54.4% Leave

Salford and Eccles: 53.6% Leave
Worsley and Eccles South: 59.8% Leave

In the Worsley and Eccles South it was the two rock solid Tory wards that voted remain: Boothstown and Ellensbrook, Worsley. All the Labour wards and the swingy ward of Walkden South voted leave.
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YL
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« Reply #1921 on: July 12, 2016, 07:21:36 AM »

Do we have any idea how postal votes have been taken into account in these ward figures?  I guess either they've been excluded or they've been distributed among the wards somehow...
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1922 on: July 12, 2016, 07:50:04 AM »

Turnout in the Salford wards with big Hasidic populations barely above GE levels; another minority not terribly enthused either way?

Also of interest: note that turnout patterns in general are 'normal' ones slightly modified. Not surprising of course, but contrary to what was claimed on the day and the night itself.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1923 on: July 12, 2016, 07:16:48 PM »

Not wards, but Wiltshire has released results by counting area. The whole county was divided into four 'counting areas' (including postal votes) - Chippenham, Devizes, Salisbury and Trowbridge - and those results are what they have released. I don't know whether those counting areas correspond to wards though.

Chippenham 51.5% Remain
Devizes 54.8% Leave
Salisbury 52.15% Leave
Trowbridge 54.8% Leave
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1924 on: July 12, 2016, 08:10:23 PM »
« Edited: July 12, 2016, 08:15:16 PM by Tetro Kornbluth »

It is a similar situation in Leeds which did not count by wards but by 'counting areas'. However, unlike Wiltshire I can confirm that these counting areas (all ten of them) were drawn up with wards in mind. The wards in each area are listed below along with the result

Area 1 (Armley, Calverley & Farsley and Horsforth): 53.33% Remain
Area 2 (Beeston & Holbeck, Cross Gates & Whinmoor and Harewood): 55.36% Leave
Area 3 (Bramley & Stanningley, Killinbeck & Seacroft and Weetwood): 54.25% Leave
Area 4 (Burmantofts & Richmond, Garforth & Swillington and Kirkstall): 50.31% Remain
Area 5 (Chapel Allerton, Kippax & Methley and Moortown): 56.74% Remain
Area 6 (City & Hunslet, Morley South, Otley & Yeadon and Roundhay) 57.07% Remain
Area 7 (Farnley & Wortley, Guiseley & Rawdon and Temple Newsam): 55.34% Leave
Area 8 (Adel & Wharfedale, Gipton & Harehills, Pudsey and Wetherby): 51.75% Remain
Area 9 (Alwoodley, Headingley, Middleton and Morley North): 51.79% Leave
Area 10 (Ardsley & Robin Hood, Hyde Park & Woodhouse and Rothwell): 51.56% Leave

EDIT: Just looked at where those wards are on a map. LOL is all I can say. Still though, not altogether useless.
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