United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership
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Author Topic: United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership  (Read 175430 times)
Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1925 on: July 12, 2016, 08:41:59 PM »

South Tyneside now - some hilariously uniform results. All 18 wards voted to leave, and only one was close (very close) and that was, wait for it, Cleadon and East Boldon, historically the Tory's strongest ward in the borough (all it has a full slate of Labour councillors now)

Beacon and Bents: 59.34% Leave
Biddock and All Saints: 65.89% Leave
Cleadon Park: 64.14% Leave
Harton: 64.11% Leave
Horsley Hill: 58.54% Leave
Simonside and Rekendyke: 61.35% Leave
West Park: 60.9% Leave
Westoe 58.58% Leave
Whitburn and Marsden: 61.71% Leave
Whiteleas: 65.83% Leave
Bede: 67.85% Leave
Boldon Colliery: 60.44% Leave
Cleadon and East Boldon: 50.29% Leave
Fellgate and Headworth: 66.57% Leave
Hebburn North: 60.2% Leave
Hebburn South 61.98% Leave
Monkton: 63.39% Leave
Primose: 65.7% Leave
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1926 on: July 13, 2016, 03:35:10 AM »

This hyper-centralized system for counting votes is one of the most ridiculous things about British politics - and that's saying a lot.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #1927 on: July 13, 2016, 09:49:42 PM »

Added some more places, the ones posted in the thread.  Also added Cambridge and Inverclyde since both of them are about a constituency in themselves.  Only small parts not inside each.

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joevsimp
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« Reply #1928 on: July 14, 2016, 04:56:29 PM »

Looking at the results both in this referendum and the AV vote in 2011, the area around the Wash seems... quite... consistent.

I've done a bit of regression analysis, the correlation between Leave and No to AV is much closer than between Leave in 2016 and 1975.

I'll probably post it on here this weekend, some interesting trends
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1929 on: July 18, 2016, 03:50:10 PM »

Waltham Forest (Doesn't include postals)

Cann Hall 61% Remain
Leyton 60.3% Remain
Leytonstone 66.8% Remain
Cathall 59.5% Remain
Grove Green 66.5% Remain
Forest 61.3% Remain

(Leyton and Wanstead: 62.9% Remain)

Hale End and Highams Park 55% Remain
Endlebury 56% Leave
Hatch Lane 55.1% Leave
Chingford Green 55.3% Leave
Larkswood 55.8% Leave
Valley 54.2% Leave

(Chingford and Wood Green: 53.5% Leave)

Wood Street 67.1% Remain
High Street 69.1% Remain
William Morris 69.4% Remain
Higham Hill 59.9% Remain
Markhouse 68.1% Remain
Hoe Street 71.3% Remain
Lea Bridge 63.4% Remain
Chapel End 61.9% Remain

(Walthamstow: 66.51% Remain)
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ChrisDR68
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« Reply #1930 on: July 26, 2016, 12:41:26 PM »

This is interesting:

Leave was always in the lead: why the polls got the referendum result wrong



By controlling for mode and house effects, our analyses enable us to estimate underlying trends in the dynamics of support in EU referendum vote intentions. The results indicate that Leave led Remain over the entire period from 11 January 2016 onward. The size of the Leave lead varies widely—from a low of .39 per cent (4 February) to a high of 13.2 per cent (12 June)—but Leave is always ahead.

The analysis also provides insight regarding the effects of various events that occurred during the campaign. For example, contrary to his intentions, US President Barack Obama’s widely publicized ‘UK to the back of the queue’ intervention may have boosted, rather than diminished, Leave support. In contrast, as numerous observers have speculated, the murder of Labour MP Jo Cox on 16 June may have precipitated an ongoing erosion in Leave support over the final week before the vote. That downturn in Leave’s vote intention share notwithstanding, the analysis documents that over the last month of the campaign the lower bound of the 95 per cent credible (confidence) interval for the Leave vote always exceeds the 50 per cent mark. This means that Leave was very likely ahead throughout this entire period.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/eu-referendum-polls/?utm_content=buffer3009c&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer
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Zanas
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« Reply #1931 on: July 27, 2016, 02:14:21 AM »

Yes, if you take every poll from January and add 7 pts to the Leave score in each one, Leave was always in the lead. Moving on.
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rob in cal
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« Reply #1932 on: August 05, 2016, 11:04:18 AM »

    Do we have any poll results or analysis for how the vote on Brexit by party preference went by region.  If Britain wide only 30% of Labour supporters voted for Brexit, I'd love to see how that worked itself out by region.  There must have been huge swings among Labour supporters between London and non-London, North vs non-North, middle class Labour vs non-middle class etc.
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JerryArkansas
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« Reply #1933 on: August 19, 2016, 10:05:48 AM »

Update on the map.

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vileplume
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« Reply #1934 on: August 19, 2016, 12:22:40 PM »

    Do we have any poll results or analysis for how the vote on Brexit by party preference went by region.  If Britain wide only 30% of Labour supporters voted for Brexit, I'd love to see how that worked itself out by region.  There must have been huge swings among Labour supporters between London and non-London, North vs non-North, middle class Labour vs non-middle class etc.

I imagine Tory voters in places like Surrey and surrounding areas were pretty pro-Remain. Indeed they'd have to be to get nearly 60-40 Remain vote in somewhere like Waverley, co-terminus with Jeremy Hunt's South West Surrey which is a Tory stronghold and probably amongst their top 20 (perhaps even their top 10) safest seats in Britain. Though these kind of areas voting remain are hardly surprising given their wealth and affluence (hence their nickname: 'the stockbroker belt').
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vileplume
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« Reply #1935 on: August 19, 2016, 12:25:22 PM »
« Edited: August 19, 2016, 12:31:14 PM by vileplume »


Stockport (Greater Manchester) also released ward breakdowns. Here are results for the 3  constituencies entirely contained within the borough:

Stockport:
 Remain: 23,600 (53.2%)
 Leave: 20,752 (46.8%)

Cheadle:
 Remain: 32,752 (57.3%)
 Leave: 24,360 (42.7%)

Hazel Grove
 Remain: 22,829 (47.8%)
 Leave: 24,939 (52.2%)


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YL
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« Reply #1936 on: August 19, 2016, 12:28:37 PM »

A comment on Lib Dem Voice by Dore & Totley councillor Joe Otten says they have box counts which give Sheffield Hallam as 2:1 remain on the day, and postal votes for the city as a whole being 5:4 leave.  (That would be very much in line with Chris Hanretty's estimate for Hallam, which was 35% Leave.)

Given the council area results, all South Yorkshire constituencies outside Sheffield must have voted Leave unless something very weird was going on.

There will be some other council areas which voted strongly Leave and are similar enough to constituencies to be confident the constituencies must have done so too, e.g. Bassetlaw.
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vileplume
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« Reply #1937 on: August 19, 2016, 12:39:23 PM »

A comment on Lib Dem Voice by Dore & Totley councillor Joe Otten says they have box counts which give Sheffield Hallam as 2:1 remain on the day, and postal votes for the city as a whole being 5:4 leave.  (That would be very much in line with Chris Hanretty's estimate for Hallam, which was 35% Leave.)

Given the council area results, all South Yorkshire constituencies outside Sheffield must have voted Leave unless something very weird was going on.

There will be some other council areas which voted strongly Leave and are similar enough to constituencies to be confident the constituencies must have done so too, e.g. Bassetlaw.



I imagine Sheffield Central would have also be remain, probably by quite a wide margin though it does contain Manor Castle which probably would have been strongly leave which would have knocked down Remain's margin a bit. Sheffield South East, Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough, and Penistone and Stocksbridge (part in Barnsley) would obviously have been heavily leave given their demographics. But the question is how would have Sheffield Heeley have voted? I think it contains some middle class wards in the West of the seat. I imagine it would have voted leave but by a much closer margin than the other three but I'm not sure, does anyone have any idea?
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YL
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« Reply #1938 on: August 19, 2016, 01:29:36 PM »

A comment on Lib Dem Voice by Dore & Totley councillor Joe Otten says they have box counts which give Sheffield Hallam as 2:1 remain on the day, and postal votes for the city as a whole being 5:4 leave.  (That would be very much in line with Chris Hanretty's estimate for Hallam, which was 35% Leave.)

Given the council area results, all South Yorkshire constituencies outside Sheffield must have voted Leave unless something very weird was going on.

There will be some other council areas which voted strongly Leave and are similar enough to constituencies to be confident the constituencies must have done so too, e.g. Bassetlaw.



I imagine Sheffield Central would have also be remain, probably by quite a wide margin though it does contain Manor Castle which probably would have been strongly leave which would have knocked down Remain's margin a bit. Sheffield South East, Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough, and Penistone and Stocksbridge (part in Barnsley) would obviously have been heavily leave given their demographics. But the question is how would have Sheffield Heeley have voted? I think it contains some middle class wards in the West of the seat. I imagine it would have voted leave but by a much closer margin than the other three but I'm not sure, does anyone have any idea?

I basically agree with you, but other than the Hanretty estimates and things like poster displays during the campaign I have no real evidence.  Central must have been strongly Remain, in spite of the Manor.  Heeley does indeed contain some areas which will have been strongly Remain (like Meersbrook) but I think they will have been outvoted.  B&H was probably a little less Leave than South-East (Burngreave was presumably Remain, and Hillsborough was probably quite close) but more Leave than Heeley.
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1939 on: August 19, 2016, 01:35:22 PM »

Has anyone done estimates for the Liverpool constituencies? Wouldn't be surprised if Walton, West Derby and Garston and Halewood (which includes a bit of Leave-voting Knowsley borough - hence the Halewood part) all voted Leave; surely Riverside was the most Remain.
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YL
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« Reply #1940 on: August 19, 2016, 01:58:13 PM »

Has anyone done estimates for the Liverpool constituencies? Wouldn't be surprised if Walton, West Derby and Garston and Halewood (which includes a bit of Leave-voting Knowsley borough - hence the Halewood part) all voted Leave; surely Riverside was the most Remain.

Chris Hanretty has estimates for the whole country:
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/revised-estimates-of-leave-vote-share-in-westminster-constituencies-c4612f06319d#.ab4newhm1

(These are revised figures from the ones discussed previously, which were definitely off for Liverpool.  I haven't checked these ones.)
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Phony Moderate
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« Reply #1941 on: August 19, 2016, 02:01:06 PM »

Has anyone done estimates for the Liverpool constituencies? Wouldn't be surprised if Walton, West Derby and Garston and Halewood (which includes a bit of Leave-voting Knowsley borough - hence the Halewood part) all voted Leave; surely Riverside was the most Remain.

Chris Hanretty has estimates for the whole country:
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/revised-estimates-of-leave-vote-share-in-westminster-constituencies-c4612f06319d#.ab4newhm1

(These are revised figures from the ones discussed previously, which were definitely off for Liverpool.  I haven't checked these ones.)

Cheers.
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Hash
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« Reply #1942 on: August 19, 2016, 06:23:18 PM »

Has anyone done estimates for the Liverpool constituencies? Wouldn't be surprised if Walton, West Derby and Garston and Halewood (which includes a bit of Leave-voting Knowsley borough - hence the Halewood part) all voted Leave; surely Riverside was the most Remain.

Chris Hanretty has estimates for the whole country:
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/revised-estimates-of-leave-vote-share-in-westminster-constituencies-c4612f06319d#.ab4newhm1

(These are revised figures from the ones discussed previously, which were definitely off for Liverpool.  I haven't checked these ones.)

In which case:

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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1943 on: August 19, 2016, 06:28:16 PM »

Some of those Hanretty figures are wrong from what we now about ward data. Sutton Coldfield voted leave, for example, but he has it voting remain.
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World politics is up Schmitt creek
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« Reply #1944 on: August 19, 2016, 07:28:59 PM »

Could someone use Hanretty's figures for a base map but correct him for constituencies for which we know he's wrong?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #1945 on: August 20, 2016, 03:42:24 AM »

I wonder what a correlation coefficient between Remain-Leave margin and Labour-Tory margin in England (obviously Scotland would skew it quite a bit) would look like. From this map, I don't really see a relationship either way, but there might be one even if it's not obvious.
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Tetro Kornbluth
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« Reply #1946 on: August 20, 2016, 10:12:07 AM »

I wonder what a correlation coefficient between Remain-Leave margin and Labour-Tory margin in England (obviously Scotland would skew it quite a bit) would look like. From this map, I don't really see a relationship either way, but there might be one even if it's not obvious.

I didn't do this for England but in AAD I posted charts for the correlation between support for Scottish Independence and Welsh Autonomy (2011 and 1997) and 2016 remain. In all calculations the correlation was basically zero - and literally zero for 2014 Yes and 2016 Remain.

However, for Northern Ireland there was an extremely strong negative correlation between voting for self-declared Unionists in the 2016 Assembly elections and voting for Remain (r=-0.95), and the reverse for the Nationalists (r=0.80).
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1947 on: August 21, 2016, 04:13:48 PM »

Turnout in the Salford wards with big Hasidic populations barely above GE levels; another minority not terribly enthused either way?
Spoke with a Stamford Hill Hasid about the referendum, turnout, and the mood in his neighborhood. Most who did turn out voted remain, and it appears to me that this was mainly because of the ties between communities in the UK and communities in Antwerp. If you want your son or daughter to get married to someone in Antwerp, it's easier if they can live there without much hassle, and if you want to sell something, it's easy if there are few restrictions, etc... But many also didn't vote; a combination of being low-info (the Hasid I talked with, who didn't vote, admitted he didn't know who was the new PM) and not caring about politics in general because G-d rules the world.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1948 on: August 21, 2016, 06:33:12 PM »

Spoke with a Stamford Hill Hasid about the referendum, turnout, and the mood in his neighborhood. Most who did turn out voted remain, and it appears to me that this was mainly because of the ties between communities in the UK and communities in Antwerp. If you want your son or daughter to get married to someone in Antwerp, it's easier if they can live there without much hassle, and if you want to sell something, it's easy if there are few restrictions, etc... But many also didn't vote; a combination of being low-info (the Hasid I talked with, who didn't vote, admitted he didn't know who was the new PM) and not caring about politics in general because G-d rules the world.

Thanks; really informative Smiley
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