United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Beezer]

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[Beezer]

Probably MEPs who want to keep their job.

[Beezer]

I'd say the most similar example was already mentioned: Anna Lindh, who was pro-euro and killed a mere 3 days ahead of the referendum. The "no" side still won comfortably.

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Early counting of postal votes in Sunderland suggest a 60/40 split to Leave.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/746098795054833668

Didn't someone post a link stating Sunderland should lean around 6 points towards leave?

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This will be a comfortable win for Remain.

Based on...?

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I think people need to post whether a given result is good for leave or remain. As a layman I have no clue whether 60% leave in some Welsh place means anything substantial.

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[BREXITING INTENSIFIES]

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When is Sunderland coming up?

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Portsmouth is looking like 57% Leave, Southampton 60% Leave. Both were expected to be more level.
https://twitter.com/BBCPeterH/status/746129630873161728

[Beezer]

Well, Angela...you've brought about the secession of a major EU country.

[Beezer]

Well, Angela...you've brought about the secession of a major EU country.

I don't think it's Merkel's fault.

You can lay this event at the hands of Jacque Delores for pushing through the creation of the Euro.

The European project went wrong at that point.

#1 reason for the Brexit win: migration. This is on Merkel.

[Beezer]

Pound will recover within days. Markets had priced in a Bremain, now we'll see a short correction.

[Beezer]

Let the Scots vote on independence. But this time around it'll be proper independence, complete with euro and oil at a fraction of the price where it was 2 years ago. Last time they couldn't even get a majority for independence lite, complete w/ Queen and pound and oil at >$100.

[Beezer]

Let the Scots vote on independence. But this time around it'll be proper independence, complete with euro and oil at a fraction of the price where it was 2 years ago. Last time they couldn't even get a majority for independence lite, complete w/ Queen and pound and oil at >$100.

I am pretty sure they are happy to go for euro, Schengen, and the entire thing. They might keep Elizabeth I: Englishers do not have a monopoly on her anyway.

Sure, which is why Salmond ran on a platfom of introducing the euro last time around...

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Seems like a lifetime ago when Nigel conceded...

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My rationale for thinking MPs might not vote to leave the EU is predicated on two main factors.
1) The Tories being as disunited as they are seem unlikely to all vote for leaving.
2) A solid majority of opposition MPs might not support leaving, not wanting to open Pandora's box,and being more able to reject the referendum than the Tories, since they little role in the referendum.
These two factors taken together could result in a Commons vote initiating EU withdrawal to fail.
I could be wrong.

Really can't see how they can have a referendum billed as the most important vote in a generation and then go "whatever...we'll just stay in."

[Beezer]

Rumor has it Dave will step down.

[Beezer]

My rationale for thinking MPs might not vote to leave the EU is predicated on two main factors.
1) The Tories being as disunited as they are seem unlikely to all vote for leaving.
2) A solid majority of opposition MPs might not support leaving, not wanting to open Pandora's box,and being more able to reject the referendum than the Tories, since they little role in the referendum.
These two factors taken together could result in a Commons vote initiating EU withdrawal to fail.
I could be wrong.

Really can't see how they can have a referendum billed as the most important vote in a generation and then go "whatever...we'll just stay in."

It wasn't binding. Also the opposition, especially Labour, was little involved. Safeguards need to be present from stopping someone like David Cameron from ruining the economy in this fashion, with his utter incompetence. This was a vote of humongous importance.
However it appears that scenario is not coming to pass.

Point is that there would be a huge outcry if parliament now turned around and disregarded the verdict, regardless of whether it was binding or not.

I also don't buy the narrative that Cameron has ruined anything. He ran on a platform promising a referendum. This arguably got him elected. He then asked the British people for their decision on EU membership. What you are essentially calling for is the suspension of democracy whenever a political leader acts in contravention to your own preferences.

[Beezer]

Quasi-Hot take: leave has little to no true mandate at this point and the Commons could do nothing wrong by ignoring the referendum.
Problem is, everyone has been acting as it has and so soon the effect will be that Leave has had a mandate all along.

What exactly constitutes a "mandate" in your eyes? Would 55% have been sufficient? What about general elections? Is a majority of 1 MP not enough? Where do you draw the line? In light of such a lack of a mandate, do you advocate holding election after election until a party possesses not just a simple majority but a sufficient enough mandate?

We just had a referendum where people were asked about their stance on the country's EU membership. A majority voted to leave - and according to the rules of the referendum that sufficed.* End of story. This clutching at straws by focusing on a "mandate" is ridiculous.

* Entirely different question whether such basic questions ought to require a supermajority but in the context of this referendum that wasn't the case.

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Regarding that petition, its now been signed by almost 2 million people. So 4-5% of registered voters, and almost 1 in 8 remain voters.

I dare say the wounds this referendum opened aren't going to heal any time soon.

And how do we know all of the people that have signed the petition are actually British voters?

You know the remain side is clutching at straws when it is now brining out online petitions as evidence for why we need a 2nd referendum.

[Beezer]

This data would indicate that only a small number of actual signatories are British:

{"name":"United Kingdom","code":"GB","signature_count":354634}
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215.json

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Btw, 1050 signatures have come from the Vatican (pop: 1000).