United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[jaichind]

What will be Labour's position?  While I am the majority of Labour's MPs are pro-EU I recall that Corbyn himself has some anti-EU views.

[jaichind]

More interestingly, what is the SNP position. Will they propose an independent Scotland in EU referendum?

It is clear SNP is for Yes.  Deep down they might want the rest of UK to vote No so they have an excuse to have another Scotland Independence Referendum which if it takes place right after the Brixit Referendum they might win.

[jaichind]

Trump has endorsed Brexit. That alone should be reason enough for every decent person to vote to stay.

Very clever of Trump.  He is trying wrap himself up with a certain part of the Margaret Thatcher legacy.   

[jaichind]

This one, you mean?

I was thinking of her post-Maastricht Treaty position

[jaichind]

  Which side would benefit most from a lower turnout?  My guess would be Leave as it might have the most committed supporters who are going to vote no matter what.  Also, does London normally have lower turnout than the rest of the UK? As its a Remain stronghold that might have implications in a close vote.

I assume Leaves.  My understanding is that Leaves wins for older votes and Stays wins for younger voters.  In a low turnout situation the older voters will form the larger portion of the voting base.

[jaichind]

I wonder what outcome would be in Labour's best interests; it probably won't matter much either way.

I can see this referendum splitting the CON so badly that Cameron might have to go later this year.  In which case the new CON PM might call for new elections while Jeremy Corbyn is in charge of LAB.  Delaying it would only make the CON defeat far far worse a few years from now like what happen to Major in 1997.

[jaichind]

Can we have some #analysis of polls and stuff in this thread?

I saw somewhere that polls have it tied on average?

It seems polls averages have Stay with a slight lead.  Phone line polls seems to be biased in favor of Stay and online polls seems to be biased in favor of Leave.  Could be indicative of a shy Leave vote.

[jaichind]

ICM which is a phone poll just came out showing lead for Leave 45/42 which is a swing of 14 from a couple of weeks ago.  An ICM online survey has Leave leading 47/44.  This is the first time in a while that a phone survey show Leave with the lead.    GBP drops 0.8% almost instantaneously when this poll result was released.  The market has mostly priced in a high chance of Stay winning.

[jaichind]

GBP now down 1.8% since ICM poll came out yesterday.

[jaichind]

ORB poll: Remain 45, Leave 55

Another 1% drop in GBP as soon as this poll came out

[jaichind]

High Anxiety Over Brexit Survey Crashes U.K. Pollster’s Site

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-13/high-anxiety-over-brexit-survey-crashes-u-k-pollster-s-website

[jaichind]

New Guardian/ICM has it 53/47 for leave.

[jaichind]

Labour rebels hope to topple Jeremy Corbyn in 24-hour blitz after EU referendum

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/13/labour-rebels-hope-to-topple-jeremy-corbyn-in-24-hour-blitz-afte/

Looks like there might be turmoil on the LAB side as well if Remain loses.  Of course my understanding that in a re-vote of registered and affiliated supporters Corbyn  will win again by a wide margin.

[jaichind]

My prediction from the beginning was for Remain to be winning until some SHOCK POLLS showed Leave ahead causing Remain to flip out and throw the kitchen sink, causing a fair but still close win for Remain. I'm right up till now

In other words you were and are predicting a rerun of the Scotland Independence referendum.

[jaichind]

https://twitter.com/STVNews/status/743032053462106112/photo/1

Poll Scottish voters: Remain 53% (-13) Leave 32% (+4)

[jaichind]

Exclusive poll: EU support falls after Jo Cox murder

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/06/17/exclusive-poll-eu-support-falls-after-jo-cox-murder/86031038/

[jaichind]

Sorry if this got asked already.  But will there be exit polls coming out at 5pm? Will BBC do one ?

[jaichind]

Prediction

Remain 52
Leave   48

[jaichind]

I think Yougov will release a 10pm renagament poll where they repoll the same people they polled earlier to see if their position has changed.

[jaichind]

The best case for UKIP would be for Leave to lose by very narrow margin.  They can then blame the shooting for the defeat and claim that they won morally and then scoop up all the various Eurosceptic votes from CON and partly LAB as well next general election.

[jaichind]

You gov.  52 48 for remain

[jaichind]

Leave EU also has it 52 48 for remain

[jaichind]

Various hedge fund exit polls also seem to have it close to 52 48 for remain

[jaichind]

If 84 is the turnout this would break 1992 record for number of in an uk election.  

[jaichind]

GBP jumps 0.7% on you gov poll result