United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Cassius]

I'd just like to say (given that others have given their views on this), that I can't imagine how a United Europe will be able to function even semi-efficiently. At this present point, the Union is riven with division and backbiting; in an actual superstate, where far greater sacrifices would have to be made upon the part of individual nations in order to achieve some kind of workable state, I can only imagine that the backlash to that would make the current divisions between governments and the rise of anti-EU parties look like storm in a teacup. Thus casting doubt upon the ability of a united Europe to, in anyway, act as a serious or coherent player on the world stage.

[Cassius]

John Major has a lot of gall to criticise others for dishonesty, I'll give him that much.

[Cassius]

We are living in a geriocracy.

Yes well if people of my age don't vote then that's their problem.

[Cassius]

This should of been a comfortable win for remain but now it looks like leave has an advantage because the remain camp is being run by complete idiots

Where do they find the incompetents who run referendum campaigns, that's what I wanna know.

I think the only thing that will swing back to Remain is a big concerted effort by a Lqbour figure. Sadly Corbyn doesn't have his heart in it.

Well, I mean, in this campaign the Remain side has even less to sell than Better Together did in 2014. The fact is, very few people have any emotional attachment to the EU whatsoever, and I'd think a majority probably hold a rather negative view of it (which is not to say they're inclined to leave), for often good reasons. Essentially, the campaign is largely being fronted by people who fall into this category (Cameron, Osborne and to a lesser extent Corbyn) who have always been critical of the EU and have even said (as Cameron has in the past) that Britain could do well outside the EU, so there's something of a credibility gap when they now say that leaving would cause a second Great Depression or whatever the latest excessive hyperbole emanating from the Remain campaign is.

How wonderful... I wonder if anyone has done the calculations about the economic impacts of what happens when this clusterfeck actually comes to pass?

Congrats, morons.

Most studies indicate that the economy will take a negative hit for a while from Brexit. The thing is, this referendum isn't just about (and shouldn't be just about) economic forecasts, which, as I'm sure you're aware, are not always right, as was the case when we decided not to join the Euro and the economic forecasts projected much the same as they are now, incorrectly.

[Cassius]

Michael Give literally given a cute family interest piece on BBC news bullsh**tting about fishing quotas. Can't wait for this drip to alienate everybody and be exiled to the backbenches.

Also lol, looks like the Xi Jinping Stronkg!!!! tour really made an impression on people, lmao.

Yes, it wouldn't do to depart in any way from the popular belief that all Tory politicians and voters are born and bred in test tubes and bottle fed on milk mixed with the ground up bones of dead children... would it.

[Cassius]

Well, Cameron, Osborne and much of the pro-remain camp in the Conservative party (excluding people like Ken Clarke of course, who have always been unabashedly for the EU) are, to quote Alliser Thorne, a bunch of f***ing traitors, in the sense that they've flipped from an strongly eurosceptic position to the classic europhile 'We love the EU, the EU is wonderful and if you want to leave it then you're a zealot/loony/bigot/dolt' position, with some vague promises of 'reform' (whatever that means) thrown in when absolutely necessary. They've essentially turned the agreed stance of the Conservative party (rhetorically at least) over the past 20 years, that we should remain in the EU and do everything we can to weaken it and obstruct any moves to federalism, on its head completely. I mean, given that, as Al said, Cameron has no actual long term strategy for anything, I can quite well see his metamorphosis into a shill for Brussels continuing on after this referendum (assuming that he somehow emerges strengthened from it, which thankfully looks unlikely). He can hardly, after fighting a referendum campaign in which he portrayed the EU as the Kingdom of Heaven, go back to a critical stance re it, especially given that doing so would also further undermine the credibility of his renefauxtiation of Britain's relationship with the EU, although that's basically a dead letter at this point.

I mean, I don't think they're traitors to this country or anything like that (and I don't begrudge genuine europhiles for holding that position), but they are traitors to the the traditional (in the last two decades) Conservative view on Europe, and to the vast majority of the party's membership and a majority of the parliamentary party.

[Cassius]

I think that, rather than being some kind of 'kingmaker', the Sun simply swings into line behind whichever option is most popular (with the caveat of said option being palatable to Murdoch), which allows it to maintain an undeserved reputation for being a 'kingmaker'. I doubt it'll have much impact one way or the other.

[Cassius]

Boris Johnson will not be Prime Minster; not matter the result of the referendum.

I think he may. There is tension right now in the Conservative Party. I could see him, Osborne, May, or even a dark horse like Priti Patel, a Hindu MP to be a potential successor to Cameron.

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/priti-patel-who-top-tory-right-winger-tipped-be-face-brexit-campaign-1542619

There is too much MPs hating Boris for him to be PM.

Conservatives use an hybrid method for electing leader, MPs vote on the candidates, by rounds, elimilating the lowest vote getter until there is only 2 candidates, which are sent on full membership election. So, you need consequent support among the MPs to reach the final step.

A good dark horse would be Stephen Crabb. Young, handsome. He could lead the Tories for another generation.

Crabb is definitely my preferred candidate at this stage.

[Cassius]

Well, this is exactly the kind of patronising bullsh**t floating around my fb feed that eventually made me swing back to voting leave after briefly flirting with voting to remain (because I highly doubt that the referendum will be so close as to hinge on one vote). I mean, the idea that our leaving the EU will mean we cease to be a 'big player' (whatever that means) in the world is rather specious to say the least, given that we will continue to have one of the largest armies and independent nuclear deterrents in the west, one of the largest financial services centres in the world, a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and representation in the G8 and G20.

 As for being a 'big player' in Europe, I think our weak position in Europe has largely been exposed by this referendum campaign - Cameron's much vaunted renegotiation of our relationship with the EU turned out to be a damp squib, and even the 'concessions' extracted there are the absolute maximum that we'll be able to wring from the EU, according to Jean Claude Juncker at least. We've also signed away our control over our own trade policy as a member of the EU (a fact that, ironically, pushed me towards the Remain camp, as our existing trade deals through the EU will be rendered null and void by leaving) and control over various other areas of policy that should be in the hands of the British policy (although not to the extent that the Leave campaign has made out). We've always had what amounts to an adversarial relationship with the EU, remaining (correctly in my view) outside of key developments in that institution over the years (the Euro and Schengen to name but two), which has also reduced our influence in Europe, as we are correctly perceived as not being fully committed to the European project. This will not change in the aftermath of the referendum, one way or another.

Boiling important political discussion down to silly and patronising memes isn't really helpful, especially when those memes put across points that are basically blatant fabrications.

[Cassius]

Well, this is exactly the kind of patronising bullsh**t floating around my fb feed that eventually made me swing back to voting leave after briefly flirting with voting to remain (because I highly doubt that the referendum will be so close as to hinge on one vote). I mean, the idea that our leaving the EU will mean we cease to be a 'big player' (whatever that means) in the world is rather specious to say the least, given that we will continue to have one of the largest armies and independent nuclear deterrents in the west, one of the largest financial services centres in the world, a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and representation in the G8 and G20.

 As for being a 'big player' in Europe, I think our weak position in Europe has largely been exposed by this referendum campaign - Cameron's much vaunted renegotiation of our relationship with the EU turned out to be a damp squib, and even the 'concessions' extracted there are the absolute maximum that we'll be able to wring from the EU, according to Jean Claude Juncker at least. We've also signed away our control over our own trade policy as a member of the EU (a fact that, ironically, pushed me towards the Remain camp, as our existing trade deals through the EU will be rendered null and void by leaving) and control over various other areas of policy that should be in the hands of the British policy (although not to the extent that the Leave campaign has made out). We've always had what amounts to an adversarial relationship with the EU, remaining (correctly in my view) outside of key developments in that institution over the years (the Euro and Schengen to name but two), which has also reduced our influence in Europe, as we are correctly perceived as not being fully committed to the European project. This will not change in the aftermath of the referendum, one way or another.

Boiling important political discussion down to silly and patronising memes isn't really helpful, especially when those memes put across points that are basically blatant fabrications.

You changed your vote because of Facebook memes?

Haha, not specifically, although that meme did jog my memory of it being shared by a couple of my Remain friends on FB. It does however fit into the smug, condescending view held by many Remain voters that basically all leave voters are uncouth, ill-educated, knuckle-dragging bigots who have been tricked by evil right-wing politicians, whilst they themselves are all upstanding, intellectual forward looking people to whom tomorrow belongs, once all those nasty old people die off (as one of my Remain friends commented). I'm not going to deny that there are good reasons to vote to remain - the trouble is the Remain campaign's hordes of supporters rarely espouse these views, they mostly just spew distortions of reality (a la that meme), ad hominem attacks on Leave voters and politicians of the kind I summed up and bogus lines of thought (Jean Claude Juncker, Donald Tusk and Angela Merkel are fluffy social democrats that wants to protect workers rights from the evil Tories). Of course, much of the same, in reverse, can be found on the Leave side, but ultimately I had to make a choice l, and given my one vote is incredibly unlikely to swing the referendum I voted to leave rather than be on the same side as this shower.

[Cassius]

Leave shouldn't be too cocky - it was a good result for them in Sunderland, but it's one result, and we could see it balanced out by similarly large victories for Remain in their strongholds, which I suspect may be the case (and as others have pointed out, whilst the Newcastle result was good for Leave, it was hardly hostile terrain for them).

[Cassius]

NI: Foyle reports 78.3% for remain!

Not unexpected in a very rock solid nationalist (in the Irish sense of the term) area.

[Cassius]

RIP the pound, RIP the City of London.

They were good while they lasted.

RIP UK. RIP Great Britain.

I think Irish reunification may be on the cards.

[Cassius]

Look, granted, if we do leave there will be uncertainty, but the idea that voting to leave the EU will instantly destroy the British economy is a joke. In fact, leaving might actually be beneficial to certain sectors, ie accountancy.

[Cassius]

More to the point, this thing is hardly over yet, there's been a big swing back to Remain with results from university towns and London coming in.

[Cassius]

Come on, I want some Kent to see how the Ukip strongholds are coming in!

I would be cautious about labelling Kent as nailed-on Leave country - undoubtedly, Leave will do very well on the coast, but in rock solid inland Tory territory I think we'll be seeing very close results indeed, akin to much of the rest of the home counties.

[Cassius]

I'm lovin' the continued power of Tim Farron's south Cumbrian cult.

[Cassius]

Vale of Glamorgan (between Cardiff and Bridgend) votes 50.7 IN

[Cassius]

Re the possibility of a second Scottish referendum, remember that Mariano Rajoy still hasn't gone away, and I doubt he'll look any more kindly on the prospect of a secessionist state joining the EU than he did in 2014.

Also, on the topic of the Pound, as most posters should be aware, a dramatically fluctuating currency in response to an event like this is no sign that the economy will instantaneously collapse. That said, perhaps our moronic government shouldn't have stoked the hysteria that if we did vote to leave that is exactly what would happen so much, given the very real possibility, as shown tonight, that we would vote to do so.

[Cassius]

I wouldn't call it just yet - substantial sections of East London are still out, as are Bristol, Cornwall, and traditional Tory areas that are a little more sceptical of leaving - furthermore, I think most of Leave's best areas have now come in. Still, a knife edge.

[Cassius]

The Pound will rally once people realise that the British economy will still exist tomorrow. Ironically, the people most responsible for this current situation are those doom mongers who insist peddling the fantasy that voting to Leave the EU will cause a rapid collapse of the UK economy.

[Cassius]

So, now that Leave has all but won now, is UKIP done?

Quite the contrary, I suspect UKIP will be on steroids after this election, especially if the EU attempt to pull dodgy shenanigans in any negotiations for withdrawal.

[Cassius]

This Irish Reunification referendum will not happen, and even if it did I suspect it wouldn't pass.

[Cassius]

BIG UP DA WEST STAINES MASSIV (ie Spelthorne votes to leave).

[Cassius]

I assume this country will be stripped of all international responsibility. How can it be trusted with a UN veto power if it literally decides to will be kinda fun to risk the world economy because "muh feels"? A sad, sad end for Britain's status as a global power.

Yeah, it would make more sense to give the UK's veto power to the EU now.

That's not going to happen and you know it. Rather like this asinine talk of an 'Irish reunification referendum' or the British economy sliding into Depression.