United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Vega]

So if the UK left the EU, what would happen to UKIP, one of there main policy planks being gone? Would they start to dwindle?

[Vega]

Given the rarity of referendums here the personalities in the campaigns matter more than they would do if we were like a Switzerland or a California (i.e. where the issue at hand matters much more and the personalities matter less).

This is a common disease of referendums in countries without direct democracy as tradition (a prime example being the AV referendum).

Can you imagine if the U.S. as a whole at a referendum? It would be horrible.

[Vega]

Very curious now as to what the turnout will be; on the one hand this referendum hasn't gripped the public imagination at all (even less than a GE does actually) but on the other people do seem to understand that it's important.

Would you say that low turnout favours one side or another? It seems that it would be better for the more passionate side, which, appears to be Leave.

[Vega]

What I find really curious about Leave's immigration plan following a Yes vote is that they want an "Australian style points based system"... but I don't think they do.

Australia gets a large number of immigrants every year, and I don't think that the Brexit camp really wants that considering they're talking of an invasion of immigrants as it is in the EU.

[Vega]

I hadn't realized that Murdoch was in favour of Brexit. Rather surprising to be honest.

[Vega]

I hadn't realized that Murdoch was in favour of Brexit. Rather surprising to be honest.

Are you being sarcastic?

His newspapers are almost wholly Eurosceptic and have been for decades. Now it could be that the editors of these newspapers are following their reader's feelings on all things EU rather than leading them.

I generally believe that to be the case.

Giving their readers articles that reinforce attitudes and feelings they already have is probably judged to be good for those paper's circulations.

That's particularly true (in my opinion) of the Daily Mail.

Yes, I was, though you would think someone like Murdoch would be more in favour of the EU.

[Vega]

Is it at all likely that this will have an impact on the vote, as tragic as it is?

[Vega]

New poll shows a tie

Remain: 48
Leave: 48

Methodology is probably wrong given the pollster.

[Vega]

Two new polls out -

Opinium has Remain and Leave both on 44% - remain unchanged and leave +2%

Survation has remain 45% (up 3) and leave on 42% (down 3)

https://twitter.com/britainelects?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Eauthor

Given the last week or so, this would seem fairly encouraging for remain.

Does the Survation poll use the same methodology as the one from 3 days ago? Do to it being released so fast, I imagine not?

[Vega]

You also have to take into account that Leave supporters are more likely to believe the vote will be "stolen" from them and take stock in various conspiracy theories.

[Vega]

If Leave wins I think undoubtedly there will be many who will say that the 'fix was in'. Whether that message is picked up by anyone is questionable.

[Vega]

I guess we're not going to have a separate results thread, right?

[Vega]

Whisper it quietly but there's actually a chance that a vote to leave the EU would not ultimately result in Britain leaving (i.e. if the terms negotiated were not popular, etc). The political consequences - especially within the Conservative Party - would be something else of course, Jesus.

low turnout and extremely narrow margin could make the referendum decision less stark and give rise to reason for Parliament to make it owns mind on the issue.

If that happened I can't imagine that going over well with voters

It would be a really poor idea if they did that given how passionate Leave people are and certainly would be. UKIP would probably gain an untold of number of seats.

[Vega]

All this referendum has proven is that you really CAN'T BARRAGE THE FARAGE

I'm amazed how low key Farage is tonight.

Must be drunk.

[Vega]

NORTHERN IRELAND VOTES REMAIN
More than 50% of voters have voted for Remain

Bit smaller of a win for Remain then was expected.

[Vega]

Leave winning by over a million now.

[Vega]

Fox News is not happy about Brexit.. Bad for US National Security!

Is it though?

[Vega]

Not just Scotland, apparently Northern Ireland, even though they are still more supportive of Union, they are definitely going down a more nationalistic path.

[Vega]

Speaking of Farage,  he just campaigned his way out of a job, right?

Yeah, and therefore his salary and expenses. Undoubtedly he'll try to run for a constituency in the next general election. He might run in a by-election if it's possible for him to win.