United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Zinneke]

David Cameron effectively resigned when he said the "Great Britain, not Nigel Farage's Little England"

Little England is his backbench majority.

[Zinneke]

I wonder how many Scots will cynically vote for Leave to improve their (own) chances of independence.

Not many since a chunk of SNP voters do not want independence and another chunk are loyal to what Sturgeon and Salmond want them to do.

Fundamentalism (i.e independence through any means) in Scottish nationalism died around the 1990s. Gradualists have triumphed.

[Zinneke]

Will this thread be plagued with people shouting wonderful/terrible and other people quoting them? Please dont turn this into the average American 2016 election thread, no matter what side you are on.

[Zinneke]

When is Sunderland coming up?

5 minute warning has just gone up.

Sunderland will be Leave by 60-40.

[Zinneke]

Completely wiped out the Remain vote lead with that result

Again a whoop-whistler who has no idea what he is talking about. Sunderland is a depressed industrial city that was expected to go to Leave.

[Zinneke]

Completely wiped out the Remain vote lead with that result

Again a whoop-whistler who has no idea what he is talking about. Sunderland is a depressed industrial city that was expected to go to Leave.

?  My statement is a fact.

If everybody reports leads being wiped out until 3am this thread is pointless.

[Zinneke]

Dimbers saying 16.4mil votes to win, which means London alone could swing it massively.

[Zinneke]

Isn't NI supposed to be pro-remain?

Marginally. Unionists are pro-leave and they turn out much better though.

[Zinneke]

Im actually amazed that there are English and Dutch people out there who dont understand how free trade works.

[Zinneke]

Lol.....

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsBreak/status/746216684596297729

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No consequences at all...

Much of the elite is feeling angry and spiteful right now.  They're lashing out.  Downgrading the UKs credit rating would be a spiteful move.

Its down to uncertainty, not some judgmenent from the elite. Dont comment if you have no idea how markets work.

Liam Fox and Boris Johnson are not anti-establishment.

[Zinneke]

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2016/06/sinn-f-calls-border-poll-re-assess-northern-irelands-place-uk

NI referendum coming?

SF have been talking about a border poll for a while now. They will settle for more devolution, potentially with the opportunity to join the single market.

[Zinneke]

If the people of Scotland wish to leave the UK and Join the EU, then that's their democratic will, after all they voted by over 60% to stay and it's not right to be pulled out if they didn't want to.

Does this apply to the apply to the people of Northern Ireland as well, then?

No because Northern Ireland has two nations, not one, and have chosen to govern by conensus. Completely different political culture to Scotland and indeed the rest of the UK.

[Zinneke]

Im more worried about the effect this will have on the UK's housing industry and massive private debt bubble. What happens if their interest rates start rising? Or wages stagnate? Or FDIs vanish? At least London will have affordable housing after the biggest bubble burst since...US 2007

Luckliy Mark Carney is the only man showing intelligence, leadership and statesmanlike behaviour. And he's Canadian.

[Zinneke]

I keep thinking about the queen. During her rule she witnissed the entire process of European integration. From the EEG to the EU. And now the Brexit. What would she think now...

She's addressing the Scottish parliament next week.

[Zinneke]

The thing that really gets me is the dishonesty and fear mongering over Northern Ireland. There is absolutely not going to be border checkpoints set up. Absolutely no way. The most likely thing to happen is  there will be a passport required to travel between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

I don't get it. What was the point of leaving the EU if not to impose ridiculous border restrictions?

There will be border restrictions, but not between Northern Ireland and the Republic!  This has been stressed over and over again but the Bremainers willfully ignored it to stir up fear.

How on earth does that guarentee border restrictions espoused by the Brexiters?
Does that mean there is a border check between Northern Ireland and Britain?
Also, will Northern Irish people be allowed to work over the border and vice versa with guarenteed equal treatment?

You have no idea what you are talking about, so id like someone else to answer.

[Zinneke]

  Derpist, I wonder if its the case that basically anything that smacks of nationalism, even if driven by a huge working class vote and against the clear wishes of most of the wealthy, will now spark this strident opposition.

I think this has always been my problem with left-wing movements. You can't beat something with nothing. They may have a great deal many flaws, but things like traditional civic society (whether it be local community, religion, or inclusive nationalism) are some of the strongest constraints against powerful economist interests. So you have leftists who want to tear down those things because of their flaws...and they inevitably find common cause with corporate interests that want to tear down the last barrier to their unlimited control of society - and the two groups just meld together after a while because of tribalism and political polarization and stuff.

The only person who I thought made a good argument for Remain was Jeremy Corbyn, but his voice just got drowned out by the media narrative that everyone who didn't like the undemocratic, austerity status quo was some sort of racist and that you had to bend the knee or be punished by Ramsay Banker.

The problem with understanding centre-left parties in Europe is that they are tribal rather than rational actors. The result is you have strands of left-wing people who broadly speaking are polar opposites in terms of politics, but would never defect to the traditional far left or, more saliently, any party that is considered right-wing.

Take Manuel Valls for example. His politics are right-wing. He's an ordo-liberal and therefore fiercely pro-EU in economic policy, and authoritarian quasi-Gaullism in social policy and foreign affairs. He should be in Les Republicains. He's not though, because his family escaped a brutal dictator that right-wing parties tolerated and even acclaimed for shooting up Catalan leftists like his family. Part of this tribal  is the toxic image of being right-wing if you come from certain communities that right-wing parties have excluded for years. This is why Valls get really angry if you call him right-wing.

The same is evident in Britain. You have a tribal Northern Labour vote that is eurosceptic, somewhat bigoted, anti-free trade (even though they have had absolute gains). Then you have a tribal Southern (London) Labour vote who is cosmopolitan, liberal, etc and probably wouldn't be associated with 'working class'.  

What annoys me is the idea that somehow one or the other has a monopoly over progress politics, while the other is regressive. The idea that being pro-free trade automitically makes you a class traitor is the kind of mentality the far left, not the centre left, is famous for. I deserted the centre-left party in Belgium partly for this (mainly for their corruption).

[Zinneke]

Good comment from Rekaert in the comments section under this article in the Independent:

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/eu-rhetoric-has-been-counter-productive-a7103011.html

The problem with the EU is they never had legitimacy to begin with, so this was a problem planted many years ago that is only now coming to fruition.

It was mis-sold to the British back in the seventies that there would be zero impact on our sovereignty, which was clearly a lie.

The rejected constitution was repacked into the abomination that is the Lisbon treaty to avoid nations even having the chance to reject it.

It's only over the past decade and half that they've been more honest about their intentions to push for Federalisation and absolute union, effectively making a new nation.

They kept very quiet about it till they thought it was too far along to stop. Since then it's been power-grab after power-grab, and usually by stealth, small bit at a time so we wouldn't become alarmed.

Hardly surprising then that a huge chunk of people are not on-board with this.

Forcing a national identity on people just doesn't work.

Agree 100% with all of that

You realise the areas where sovereignty is infringed are related almost solely to the single market the UK decided to join?

[Zinneke]

If it opts for an EEA agreement, why should Britain be excluded from having to sign up to Schengen? It'll effectively walk away from an 'immigration' based referendum having less control over it.

Oh, it will join Schengen, that is almost a given.

Britain is not a part of Schengen. It still has passport checks and border controlls at the Channel Tunnel for example. Under EU law it accepts the free movement of EU citizens, with all the rights that conveys. That includes the inability to stop an EU citizen to enter their country if they provide the documentation and a whole bunch of other technicalities relating to crime.

You can see why this deebate was dumbed down.