United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[vileplume]

The worst of both worlds, lol.

I mean, if England Brexits, it deserves the worst of both world. It should become more integrated into European institutions than it is now, but without the seat at the table when these are negotiated. Hopefully, they would also force them to abandon the pound in exchange for retaining trade access.

There is no chance that Britain could be forced to adopt the basket case currency that is the Euro. While I will probably vote to remain your post is complete nonsense.

[vileplume]

Wales is a bit sh**t. Let's be honest.

Well Wales is far closer to England than Scotland is. While Scotland's appears to be diverging with England, Wales is doing the opposite and converging on English opinion. Scotland may well leave the Uk eventually but I am confident wales won't and will continue to become closer to England in the coming years.

[vileplume]

The problem is Remain seems to be doing well in London (Essex/Kent leave London isn't in though) but this may not be able to overcome the disastrous performance in provincial England and wale

[vileplume]

Seems like most Con-Lab marginal are going heavily leave....interesting

[vileplume]

Some Labour people are suggesting that Labour's main pledge at the next GE should be to take us back in. Evidently they haven't seen the Nuneaton and Bedworth result.

That is the beauty of it for LibDems. Labour cannot take this stand. LibDems can.

BTW, I would also try to poach a few particularly pro-EU MPs from both main parties.

I seriously doubt there will be any lib dem surge though they may start to make steady progress. If the Lib Dems actually want to be an important part of our political system again they need to actually have an open and coherent ideology not be an 'all things to all people' party which was the reason they imploded during the coalition (look at the wildly diverging/random seats they held pre 2015).

[vileplume]

I hope this isn't a stupid question, but why exactly is the area around the Thames Estuary so pro-Leave (and by extension so pro-UKIP, as I do recall that area sending a UKIP MP to Parliament last year)?

You're thinking of Clacton which is in Essex but is in North East Coastal Essex as opposed to the Thames Estuary but the Thames Estuary is indeed one of UKIPs best regions in the country. The reason for this (using generalisations) is largely because South Essex has large proportions of the 'white van man' demographic which is essentially white lower middle class people who typically are small trades people or work in decently paid manual labour jobs (builder, plumber etc.), usually don't have university education, are fiercely patriotic and view immigration as the number one issue facing the country. Thus UKIP's core demographic. This demographic is also very dominant in the London Borough of Havering which unsurprisingly is also UKIP/leaves best in London (in fact many residents of Havering resent being in London at all and still insist they are part of Essex as it was pre 1965). South Essex/Havering is also where the a lot of the white flight from the east end of London has gone.

 These areas of Essex were fairly Labour inclined until they flipped en masse to the Tories under Thatcher, they did return to Labour in the Blair landslides but are currently reliably in the Tory camp with UKIP often coming second (or nearly second).

These are the parliamentary constituencies in Essex if you want to take a look https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Parliamentary_constituencies_in_Essex.

[vileplume]

And re. St Albans it was only Labour until 2005 not 2010. The 1997 boundary changes were very helpful for Labour though as it moved the extremely wealthy Tory town of Harpenden and surrounding villages into a new Hitchin and Harpenden constituency where the sitting Tory MP for St Albans Peter Lilley stood and easily won even as the reconfigured St Albans constituency fell to Labour. Needless to say it is seat that Labour won't win except with a centrist leader/platform in a complete Tory meltdown.

The Lib Dems are pretty strong in local government there but they always seem to do far worse in general elections than they do in national elections suggesting many of the people who vote Lib Dem locally vote Tory nationally and I imagine these people would have broke heavily for remain. St Albans also has a lot of affluent city professionals and despite its wealth (I remember reading property was the most expensive there than any other city in the UK) has much more of a socially liberal tendency than most other home counties constituencies.

[vileplume]

And re. St Albans it was only Labour until 2005 not 2010. The 1997 boundary changes were very helpful for Labour though as it moved the extremely wealthy Tory town of Harpenden and surrounding villages into a new Hitchin and Harpenden constituency where the sitting Tory MP for St Albans Peter Lilley stood and easily won even as the reconfigured St Albans constituency fell to Labour. Needless to say it is seat that Labour won't win except with a centrist leader/platform in a complete Tory meltdown.

As far as I am aware, St Albans also has a slightly younger population, and is more of an actual employment centre, than most of the rest of the commuter belt. In a lot of respects, it resembles somewhere like Reading more than somewhere like Hertford, which leads to it having a more substantial Labour vote.

No St Albans is not similar to Reading at all. For starters St Albans is far, far wealthier than Reading, Reading has the university aspect which St Albans doesn't have, Reading has a significantly younger population than St Albans (not sure how St Albans compares to other home counties seats though) and Reading has a much larger ethnic minority population than St Albans. Labour dominates Reading council (the two parliamentary seats contain heavily Tory suburbs which fall under West Berkshire and Wokingham councils respectively). By contrast Labour are weak on St Albans city council their only safe ward is Sopwell (council estate), they usually win Batchwood and London Colney but that's essentially it. In a exceptional year they could probably carry Ashley and St Peters (city centre) but they aren't even vaguely competitive in the rest.

A lot of Tory voters in St Albans are more 'centrist' than those in other home counties constituencies (such people often vote Lib Dem in local elections) which made them fairly amenable to voting for a more centrist New Labour when the Tories were in meltdown. This coupled with St Albans being a medium sized city and thus being more socially mixed than seats like Hertford and Stortford (having some council estates) delivered the seat to Labour in 1997 and 2001. Now Labour have completely abandoned the centre ground don't expect them to win or get anywhere near winning St Albans again, the main threat to the Tories long-term comes from the Lib Dems if that party can work out how to get their local voters to vote for them nationally instead of the Tories.

[vileplume]

^

 we're actually going to do this. The future of the economy is going to be settled by a vote of the Tory membership.

Doesn't that make you feel warm and fuzzy inside?

And if it doesn't, remember this is what the average Conservative membership looks like

Too many non-whites.

Well the Tories do quite well with certain ethnic minorities nowadays. Chinese voters are heavily Tory and the Indian vote has been trending Tory of late (they outpolled Labour with this demographic at the last election). Jewish voters are also strongly Tory but they don't really count as an ethnic minority though.

[vileplume]

Got really bored and couldn't sleep, so here are some results of the referendum by Parliamentary constituency where I could find them.  Only got about 50, but it's better than nothing.



Now realize I am tired, so any mistakes are do to that fact.  I mostly used that link to the google docs and used the results that were listed in the column that was marked local authority results.

Also going through conclile websites and seeing if they have ward data posted, if so, using that to add to the map.  Already getting Bristol done with that.  However it is kind of hard since some wards have been combined and renamed since the districts were drawn.  If I come across that, I'll just map an educated guess at to where they fall.

You can do Bristol as all the new wards are still kept entirely within one of the four constituencies.

These are some constituency results from other local authorities that released ward data you can add to your map if you want (there may be more):

South West:

Bristol North West: 58.4% Remain
Bristol East: 53.2% Remain
Bristol South: 52.9% Remain
Bristol West: 79.3% Remain

London:

Greenwich and Woolwich: 64.3% Remain
Eltham: 51.8% Leave
Streatham: 79.5% Remain
Vauxhall: 77.4% Remain
Feltham and Heston: 55.9% Leave
Brentford and Isleworth: 56.7% Remain
Ealing North: 53.7% Remain
Ealing Southall: 58.2% Remain
Ealing Central and Acton: 70.8% Remain
Holborn and St Pancras: 73.3% Remain

West Midlands:

Wolverhampton North East: 67.7% Leave
Wolverhampton South West: 54.4% Leave
Aldridge-Brownhills: 67.8% Leave
Walsall North: 74.2% Leave
Walsall South: 61.6% Leave

East Midlands:

Nottingham North: 63.8% Leave
Nottingham East: 57.1% Remain
Nottingham South: 53.1% Remain

[vileplume]

Ooh there are Ealing ward results? Linky?

http://www.ealingtoday.co.uk/default.asp?section=info&page=eabrexitresults001.htm

[vileplume]

Plymouth has also released ward-level data. I don't know how that shakes up on the constituency level though.

EDIT: So has Peterborough

EDIT2:Salford

Thanks for that . Here are results by constituency level for Plymouth Moor View, Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, Salford and Eccles, Worsley and Eccles South. It is not possible to come up with exact figures for Peterborough though as ward boundary changes mean that several wards are now part in the Peterborough constituency and part in Cambridgeshire North West.

Plymouth Moor View: 66.4% Leave
Plymouth Sutton and Devonport: 54.4% Leave

Salford and Eccles: 53.6% Leave
Worsley and Eccles South: 59.8% Leave

In the Worsley and Eccles South it was the two rock solid Tory wards that voted remain: Boothstown and Ellensbrook, Worsley. All the Labour wards and the swingy ward of Walkden South voted leave.

[vileplume]

    Do we have any poll results or analysis for how the vote on Brexit by party preference went by region.  If Britain wide only 30% of Labour supporters voted for Brexit, I'd love to see how that worked itself out by region.  There must have been huge swings among Labour supporters between London and non-London, North vs non-North, middle class Labour vs non-middle class etc.

I imagine Tory voters in places like Surrey and surrounding areas were pretty pro-Remain. Indeed they'd have to be to get nearly 60-40 Remain vote in somewhere like Waverley, co-terminus with Jeremy Hunt's South West Surrey which is a Tory stronghold and probably amongst their top 20 (perhaps even their top 10) safest seats in Britain. Though these kind of areas voting remain are hardly surprising given their wealth and affluence (hence their nickname: 'the stockbroker belt').

[vileplume]

Update on the map.

Stockport (Greater Manchester) also released ward breakdowns. Here are results for the 3  constituencies entirely contained within the borough:

Stockport:
 Remain: 23,600 (53.2%)
 Leave: 20,752 (46.8%)

Cheadle:
 Remain: 32,752 (57.3%)
 Leave: 24,360 (42.7%)

Hazel Grove
 Remain: 22,829 (47.8%)
 Leave: 24,939 (52.2%)

[vileplume]

A comment on Lib Dem Voice by Dore & Totley councillor Joe Otten says they have box counts which give Sheffield Hallam as 2:1 remain on the day, and postal votes for the city as a whole being 5:4 leave.  (That would be very much in line with Chris Hanretty's estimate for Hallam, which was 35% Leave.)

Given the council area results, all South Yorkshire constituencies outside Sheffield must have voted Leave unless something very weird was going on.

There will be some other council areas which voted strongly Leave and are similar enough to constituencies to be confident the constituencies must have done so too, e.g. Bassetlaw.

I imagine Sheffield Central would have also be remain, probably by quite a wide margin though it does contain Manor Castle which probably would have been strongly leave which would have knocked down Remain's margin a bit. Sheffield South East, Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough, and Penistone and Stocksbridge (part in Barnsley) would obviously have been heavily leave given their demographics. But the question is how would have Sheffield Heeley have voted? I think it contains some middle class wards in the West of the seat. I imagine it would have voted leave but by a much closer margin than the other three but I'm not sure, does anyone have any idea?