United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Dutch Conservative]

There will be no television exitpoll on June 23. The broadcastcompanies agreed to that, because they have no clue of the electorate and turnout (Source: Bloomberg).

It appears that banks and hedgefunds will do polling, so the stocks and the exchangerate of the pound will probably give some idea.

[Dutch Conservative]

53 Remain
47 Leave

My feeling is that the chances for Brexit have dropped to almost nothing.  Momentum is a powerful thing and Remain has got it now at just the right time.

I have the same feeling, although I keep hoping the momentum will turn. Is it possible the debate of tomorrow night will have some impact?

[Dutch Conservative]

I might sound terrible for this, but could it be that the murder of MP Jo Cox might have had swayed people to support Remain? Because the polls after her murder show support for Brexit dropping and Remain rising.

Yes. It seems fairly likely that this is the case. I imagine it's not so much people switching their opinions, but "soft" remain supporters becoming more vocal and likely to vote.

I also think it gave a bit of momentum to the remain camp. But YouGov has its poll exactly the same again as before the murder. Remain/leave 42/44. Essentially a tie. A good performance tonight could help the leave camp.

I agree that referenda are hard to poll/predict. Here in the Netherlands, the referendum about the Ukrain-treaty had the 'no' camp underperforming in polls significantly. Although you cant really compare this, the problem is the same: who is going to vote? I still think the leave camp is more enthousiastic.

My prediction: leave/remain - 53/47.

[Dutch Conservative]

Good debate tonight. Both sides made their points. I found the Leave camp a bit better organised and coordinated, with their central theme: take back control. The last words of Johnson were great: thursday can be our independence day. Ruth Davidson had a strong performance.

[Dutch Conservative]

Well, this is exactly the kind of patronising bullsh**t floating around my fb feed that eventually made me swing back to voting leave after briefly flirting with voting to remain (because I highly doubt that the referendum will be so close as to hinge on one vote). I mean, the idea that our leaving the EU will mean we cease to be a 'big player' (whatever that means) in the world is rather specious to say the least, given that we will continue to have one of the largest armies and independent nuclear deterrents in the west, one of the largest financial services centres in the world, a permanent seat on the UN Security Council and representation in the G8 and G20.

 As for being a 'big player' in Europe, I think our weak position in Europe has largely been exposed by this referendum campaign - Cameron's much vaunted renegotiation of our relationship with the EU turned out to be a damp squib, and even the 'concessions' extracted there are the absolute maximum that we'll be able to wring from the EU, according to Jean Claude Juncker at least. We've also signed away our control over our own trade policy as a member of the EU (a fact that, ironically, pushed me towards the Remain camp, as our existing trade deals through the EU will be rendered null and void by leaving) and control over various other areas of policy that should be in the hands of the British policy (although not to the extent that the Leave campaign has made out). We've always had what amounts to an adversarial relationship with the EU, remaining (correctly in my view) outside of key developments in that institution over the years (the Euro and Schengen to name but two), which has also reduced our influence in Europe, as we are correctly perceived as not being fully committed to the European project. This will not change in the aftermath of the referendum, one way or another.

Boiling important political discussion down to silly and patronising memes isn't really helpful, especially when those memes put across points that are basically blatant fabrications.

Hear! Hear! And to quote Boris Johnson: you speak for hundreds of millions who currently have no voice.

The leave camp speaks for me, and so many dutch people who dont have the chance to vote on the EU.

May Britain show the path to freedom once more!

[Dutch Conservative]

Someone said the referendum was not legally binding. I don't think UK will exit the EU regardless but will probably go back to the negotiating table. It's a shame people are blaming the EU for the mess Tories caused. If there is a snap election, I think Corbyn will need to shine more.

They will exit the EU when leaves win.

Early results are encouraging, but still too early to call this.

Kettering a bit stronger for Leave.

[Dutch Conservative]

South Tyneside

Leave 62%
Remain 38%

Again: better for leave.

[Dutch Conservative]

Leave is outperforming big in England. Building up a nice lead now.

[Dutch Conservative]

It's early, true. But very good results for Leave.

BBC: sources in Labour call it for Leave.


People, its really happening. Im so proud of the UK. They do love freedom!

[Dutch Conservative]

It's early, true. But very good results for Leave.

BBC: sources in Labour call it for Leave.


People, its really happening. Im so proud of the UK. They do love freedom!

They must also love the collapse in their economy.

You really dont understand the arguments. Back to project fear. Britons just never will be slaves!

[Dutch Conservative]

It's early, true. But very good results for Leave.

BBC: sources in Labour call it for Leave.


People, its really happening. Im so proud of the UK. They do love freedom!

They must also love the collapse in their economy.

You really dont understand the arguments. Back to project fear. Britons just never will be slaves!

Hopefully this means further integration for the remainder of Europe now that they are not weighed down by the UK.

No it wont. Next: the nexit and the Frexit! Down with the EU Leviathan!

[Dutch Conservative]

Leave lead down to 22K.  I will now accept my accolades for my prediction about London making it tighter.

Now you are doing exactly the same! You have to look at the pattern.

[Dutch Conservative]

Leave lead down to 22K.  I will now accept my accolades for my prediction about London making it tighter.

Now you are doing exactly the same! You have to look at the pattern.

I didn't say that Remain would win once London came in--just that the margin would get closer.

Agree

[Dutch Conservative]

50/50 now. Great election night!

[Dutch Conservative]

Leave is ahead of stay again on Betfair Exchange (barely).

Leave is building up a significant lead again in votes. Almost 51/49 now.

[Dutch Conservative]

250K margin, 100K of which happened in the last few min. I think we are seeing the end.

Considering how much still has to come in from Engeland: agree. When shall it be called?

[Dutch Conservative]

Will this be the end of the EU?

Not yet, but it will give a boost to eurosceptic partys. In my country there are already calls for a referendum. I saw a poll in France that a majority wants to exit. Im so proud the people of Britain choose democracy and souvereignity above the scaremongering.

[Dutch Conservative]

Half a million votes ahead for leave.

[Dutch Conservative]

Congratulations to all those who are no doubt delighted: Putin shills, PRC bots, trots, fascists, Nazis, reprobates, people who plan on being dead in the next year, anti-Semites etc

LOL!

Rrrrrrrule Britannia!

[Dutch Conservative]

David Brent and his employees voted to leave:

Slough
54/46.

[Dutch Conservative]

Congratulations to all those who are no doubt delighted: Putin shills, PRC bots, trots, fascists, Nazis, reprobates, people who plan on being dead in the next year, anti-Semites etc

LOL!

Rrrrrrrule Britannia!

I dislike the idea someone like you who despises our country is singing Rule Britainia.

So? I really dont care what you think. I will sing it again. I learned the text at school, I also learned 'Land of Hope and Glory'. It were the english that fought at Arnhem, that liberated our country. I've always admired the country for its love of freedom and independence.

The dutch and the english had their differences in the past, but right now this referendum gives me and so many people in the Netherlands real hope that democracy isn't completely dead yet.

[Dutch Conservative]

People who warn for the economic consequences: I understand the argument. But 2 things:
1. This is about a much more fundamental choice: who governs us, how can the people control the government. Its more about that, than the economics.
2. The economic system is already broke: Germany has a negative interest rate, Yellen talks about helicopter-money, South Europe is broke with gigantic unemployment numbers, especially among youth.

Many people have this feeling: we cant go on in this direction. Combined with the open borders. People think: we must act now to set a different course.

[Dutch Conservative]

Meanwhile: leave camp heading towards 1 million ahead. Arond 800.000 now.

[Dutch Conservative]

I keep thinking about the queen. During her rule she witnissed the entire process of European integration. From the EEG to the EU. And now the Brexit. What would she think now...

[Dutch Conservative]

Regarding that petition, its now been signed by almost 2 million people. So 4-5% of registered voters, and almost 1 in 8 remain voters.

Hopefully, these will be the new LibDem voters.

Maybe they will. But the Tories from now on will be united as ever. The pro-Europe vote will be split between Labour, SNP and Libdem. So for the next ten years the conservative party will be the dominant party, i predict. By then, everyone will see that the UK will do just fine outside the EU. The Scotts will beg to return within the UK.