United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Clyde1998]

It's going to happen in either 2016 or 2017.

Current Polling
YouGov (21-22 May)
Stay In - 44% (-1%)
Leave - 36% (N/C)
Changes compared to YouGov 8-9 May;
Excludes Northern Ireland

Excluding Don't Knows
Stay In - 55% (-1%)
Leave - 45% (+1%)

YouGov (19-21 May; Scotland)
Stay In - 54% (+2%)
Leave - 25% (-4%)
Changes compared to YouGov 29 Jan-2 Feb

Excluding Don't Knows
Stay In - 68% (+4%)
Leave - 32% (-4%)

YouGov (4-6 May; Wales)
Stay In - 47% (+3%)
Leave - 33% (-5%)
Changes compared to YouGov 24-27 Mar

Excluding Don't Knows
Stay In - 59% (+5%)
Leave - 41% (-5%)

[Clyde1998]

The vote will include: British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over 18 who are resident in the UK, along with UK nationals who have lived overseas for less than 15 years. Members of the House of Lords and Commonwealth citizens in Gibraltar will also be eligible, unlike in a general election. Citizens from EU countries - apart from Ireland, Malta and Cyprus - will not get a vote.

In other words:
If your a British citizen and you've lived in Australia for the last 13 years - you can vote.
If your not a British citizen and you've lived in the UK for the last 13 years - you can't vote.

[Clyde1998]

I'm dreading this. Not the result, but the campaign. Ugh.

George Osborne is going to be the leader of the "stay in Europe" campaign.

[Clyde1998]

We don't know when it will be or exactly what we'll be voting on of course so we must be careful about how we speculate, but there's a decent chance that turnout could be rather low; say around 50% or so.

There's talk that they might have it on the same day as the devolved parliament elections in 2016 - to increase turnout... They did the same for the AV referendum in 2011 - which had a very low turnout (40ish%).

Surely, the issue has to be big enough on it's own accord for there to be a vote on the subject - not attach it to other elections to get people to vote.

This is set to be the first election I can vote in - I already know how I'll vote... The sooner it's done, the better...

[Clyde1998]

The vote will include: British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over 18 who are resident in the UK, along with UK nationals who have lived overseas for less than 15 years. Members of the House of Lords and Commonwealth citizens in Gibraltar will also be eligible, unlike in a general election. Citizens from EU countries - apart from Ireland, Malta and Cyprus - will not get a vote.

In other words:
If your a British citizen and you've lived in Australia for the last 13 years - you can vote.
If your not a British citizen and you've lived in the UK for the last 13 years - you can't vote.

What's so special about Cyprus and Malta?

They're in the "Commonwealth of Nations" - ie They used to be part of the British Empire.

[Clyde1998]

Why is Scotland more EU friendly than the rest of the UK?

In most topics for the EU were probably not, but the immigration issue is where the main issue lies. Scots are, generally, more open to immigration than the English - particularity the people in the South-East and East of England.

There's also a trend with age - the younger you are, the more likely you are to be pro-EU. I don't know if Scotland has a younger population, but that could be a reason why the polling figures are massively different.

[Clyde1998]

We don't know when it will be or exactly what we'll be voting on of course so we must be careful about how we speculate, but there's a decent chance that turnout could be rather low; say around 50% or so.

You would have thought that if turnout is in that range that would probably help the out campaign as their voters are likely to be more engaged and motivated over this major national issue.

Would a 50% turnout be a mandate for change though?

[Clyde1998]

This poll seems to suggest the numbers on immigration are roughly the same.

Hmm... I think that's only because of the way the media presents the issue. There's hardly any immigration into Scotland when compared to the South of England - but Scotland has to watch the UK-wide news stories that over it. I think it's only people saying immigration is a problem, because that's all they're seeing on the media - if you were to talk to someone about the issue, then it wouldn't been seen as a problem (with most people).

Tthe importance of "solving" immigration is much lower in Scotland than in the rUK. The last YouGov poll to ask that question had immigration at 42% in the UK, but only 31% in Scotland (very small sample, however). It's the same as devolution give or take in Scotland. It's behind Health and the Economy in rUK and a long way behind those two in Scotland.

[Clyde1998]

In today's Queen Speech, there will be an announcement confirming the bill that will start the referendum process and it is expected that by this evening the formal question will be published. As for myself, I will be voting whatever answer keeps us in the European Union and am waiting to find out who the lead campaign group will be for that opinion so that I can join them and campaign for that same vote.

I'm guessing that the question will be "Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?", or something similar to that.

[Clyde1998]

The question is: “Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union?”

According to Mike Smithson of Political Betting.com, the onus is on the NO camp to get people to vote against a statement (but he points out that NO won the AV referendum and the Independence referendum)

I was right about the question.

This will be the second time in UK referendum history that the Yes option is for the status quo.

The Yes/Agree option has won a referendum in the UK 67% of the time (the 1973 NI referendum wasn't a Yes/No question):

The Yes/Agree option won the:
European Communities membership referendum, 1975 (Status Quo) - 17.2% lead
Scottish devolution referendum, 1979 - 1.6% lead
Scottish devolution referendum, 1997 (Parliament) - 24.3% lead
Scottish devolution referendum, 1997 (Tax Powers) - 13.5% lead
Welsh devolution referendum, 1997 - 0.3% lead
Greater London Authority referendum, 1998 - 22.0% lead
Northern Ireland Good Friday Agreement referendum, 1998 - 21.1% lead
Welsh devolution referendum, 2011 - 13.5% lead

The No/Disagree option won the:
Welsh devolution referendum, 1979 (Status Quo) - 29.7% lead
North East England devolution referendum, 2004 (Status Quo) - 27.9% lead
Alternative Vote referendum, 2011 (Status Quo) - 17.9% lead
Scottish independence referendum, 2014 (Status Quo) - 5.3% lead

Lead calculated as swing required to change the result of the referendum, as a fall in one vote share requires a rise in the other vote share.

What's interesting, is that there is rarely a close referendum in the UK - only three have had less than a 10% lead.

[Clyde1998]

Source: http://services.parliament.uk/bills/2015-16/europeanunionreferendum.html

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Why is Northern Ireland only one counting area and not a number of smaller areas?

[Clyde1998]

Gibraltar gets a vote but do Jersey, Guernsey, Isle of Mann, etc? Would seem grossly undemocratic if they didn't given the topic.

Gibraltar is fully integrated into the EU as part of the UK, where as the Crown Dependencies aren't.

[Clyde1998]

Gibraltar gets a vote but do Jersey, Guernsey, Isle of Mann, etc? Would seem grossly undemocratic if they didn't given the topic.

Gibraltar is fully integrated into the EU as part of the UK, where as the Crown Dependencies aren't.

It's part of the EU, but not integrated into the UK: it's a British Overseas Territory.  The other British Overseas Territories and the Crown Dependencies aren't part of the EU, and don't get a vote in European elections, but Gibraltar is and does (as part of the South West region).  OTOH, like the other Overseas Territories and the Crown Dependencies, it isn't represented in the Commons.

I meant it's in the EU as part of the UK membership - as opposed to being fully integrated into the UK.

[Clyde1998]

The vote will include: British, Irish and Commonwealth citizens over 18 who are resident in the UK, along with UK nationals who have lived overseas for less than 15 years. Members of the House of Lords and Commonwealth citizens in Gibraltar will also be eligible, unlike in a general election. Citizens from EU countries - apart from Ireland, Malta and Cyprus - will not get a vote.

In other words:
If your a British citizen and you've lived in Australia for the last 13 years - you can vote.
If your not a British citizen and you've lived in the UK for the last 13 years - you can't vote.

Well I do think that this should be something British citizens should decide, citizens of other countries can always leave if the vote end in a disaster, but honestly I'm not happy about the whole diaspora voting, people living outside a country don't suffer the consequences of their vote. You could argue that British citizens in other EU countries should be allowed to vote, simply because it will have significant effect on them.

I think there would've been uproar if we said people could only vote in the Scottish Independence Referendum if they were Scottish. (In fact, Yes would've won with 52% if that had happened, apparently). Ironically, some EU citizens voted no as they didn't want to risk leaving the EU...

What they're doing makes a vote to leave the EU more likely. I think all the people (16+) living in the UK should be able to vote, and no-one living outside the UK (excluding active military) should be able to vote.

[Clyde1998]

TNS Scotland Poll:
Remain - 49%
Leave - 19%
Undecided - 26%

Excluding Undecided
Remain - 72%
Leave - 28%

[Clyde1998]

Commonwealth citizens could swing the EU referendum.

I think it's likely that Commonwealth citizens are more likely to vote yes than no - at this early stage.

[Clyde1998]

A new Survation poll shows support for leaving at 51% and support for staying at 49%. This is the first time since November of 2014 that they have found a lead for the Out campaign.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/09/05/uk-britain-eu-poll-idUKKCN0R50X820150905

Not sure what to make of this poll - although Survation were the most pro-UKIP pollster (showing UKIP on a higher % during the election campaign), so it could be due to that.

I think we need more pollsters showing the same to confirm the pattern though.

Still a very long way to go...

[Clyde1998]

Government defeated on purdah period: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-34173126

[Clyde1998]

The old rule on referendums is that the key figure is the one representing change; people who don't know either don't vote or vote to keep the status quo. Right now the change option is struggling to reach the mid 40s even in favourable polls (and is well down in the 30s in unfavourable ones).

Correct. In the Scottish Independence Referendum, those who said that they wouldn't vote broke 80-20 to No and those who said they didn't know (the day before the vote) broke 56-44 to No [Based on the YouGov Figures]. In the IndyRef, people saying they'll vote Yes broke 98-2 to Yes and people saying they'll vote No broke 99-1 to No.

Using these breakdowns for the last YouGov poll on the EU membership referendum - Remain 36%; Leave 45%; WNV 2%; DK 17% - it breaks Remain 48%; Leave 52%. The leave vote is down by 4% on the "remove the Don't Knows" figure. Although it's not enough to cost the Leave campaign the lead.
Wales YouGov Poll
Remain 37% (-3)
Leave 45% (+3)
WNV 3% (-2)
DK 16% (+2)

Remove Don't Knows: Remain 45%; Leave 55%.
IndyRef DK/WNV Break: Remain 48%; Leave 52%.
Scotland YouGov Poll
Remain 55% (+4)
Leave 28% (-3)
WNV 2% (±0)
DK 16% (+1)

Remove Don't Knows: Remain 66%; Leave 34%.
IndyRef DK/WNV Break: Remain 66%; Leave 34%.

[Clyde1998]

Starting to think that it could actually happen...

It wouldn't surprise me, especially if Cameron can't get a good deal from the EU. Notably, Scotland's support for staying in the EU has increased, while Wales and England's support is falling. Would Scotland be happy to keep the status quo? The three polls I mentioned were conducted after the announcement regarding negotiations.

The Ipsos Mori poll in Scotland suggested that the UK leaving the EU against the wishes of the Scottish people would increase support for independence by 5% (a 10% swing to Yes), when compared to the current situation.

What surprises me is that Wales appears to be the same as the UK as a whole in EU support. Anyone have any idea what Northern Ireland thinks? In a close race NI could decide it.

[Clyde1998]

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/george-galloway-accuses-bbc-of-being-misleading-in-awkward-eu-interview-a6889176.html

George Galloway is making friends, as usual...

[Clyde1998]

More interestingly, what is the SNP position. Will they propose an independent Scotland in EU referendum?

The SNP have made it clear that it would lead to another referendum. Current polls show that it would cause a big enough swing to put the Independence campaign in Scotland over the 50% mark.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/bookies-slash-odds-scottish-independence-7415275

[Clyde1998]

More interestingly, what is the SNP position. Will they propose an independent Scotland in EU referendum?

The SNP have made it clear that it would lead to another referendum. Current polls show that it would cause a big enough swing to put the Independence campaign in Scotland over the 50% mark.

http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/bookies-slash-odds-scottish-independence-7415275

Is this becoming an issue in England? How much does an average English voter realize this?

I live in England, and the only things that get reported in the London media is negative to the SNP [and the overall independence movement]; there's very little positive about them. So it's not particularity going down well in England. Although, it won't be used as a campaigning point for the Remain campaign, as I feel more people would move to Leave than move to Remain (if there's any movement at all).

In Scotland, Panelbase polled on a question of: "If a majority of people in the UK voted for the UK to leave the EU, would you support another referendum being held on Scottish independence?". 47% said Yes; 40% No; 13% didn't know. So there is support for the SNP's stance in Scotland; even 20% of those who voted No in the referendum said there should be a second referendum in that situation.

[Clyde1998]

Brits, I have question:

which parts of the UK can be considered as pro-EU (other that Scotland) and which as anti-EU?
Is there any pattern, for example income/economic pattern which can influence the choice of citizens? I know that for example former mining/heavy industry areas usually vote for Labour but maybe also such areas might vote against EU?

London, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar (who's citizens are able to vote) spring to mind in terms of national/regional groupings.

Imagine the scenes if Gibraltar's votes keep the UK in the EU.

[Clyde1998]

On the subject of the potential geography of the result of the referendum, the other day I made the map below.  It shows a very crude regression model of the following variables:

• UKIP 2015 General election vote share (dependent variable)
• Conservative 2015 GE vote share (independent variable)
• Turnout at the 2015 GE (independent variable)
• 'White British' in 2011 Census (independent variable)
• Degree or equivalent in 2011 Census (independent variable)
• Aged 60 and over in 2011 Census (independent variable)

Using this, I divided the Parliamentary Constituencies into quartiles in order to show a hypothetical 'tie' situation:

Dark green = 25% most likely to vote to remain.
Green = the 25% which are likely than the median constituency to vote to remain.
Red = 25% which are less likely than the median constituency to vote to leave.
Dark red = the 25% most likely to vote to leave.

I ran this very arbitrary regression model for a laugh, just to see what the outcome would look like.  It may prove primarily useful for comedy value but I thought it might provoke some interesting discussion nonetheless.

Please feel free to criticize the hell out of this model (I can see a few howlers) as I may be able to change it into something more credible.  There a things said in previous posts pointing out potential problems (Sibboleth's comment about the geography of the UKIP vote, for one thing).

For extra 'fun', I can easily recreate this model to assume different national outcomes upon request, just give me the desired yes/no percentages.



Link to bigger version in gallery:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?action=gallery;sa=view&id=14405

How did you make this (as in what program did you use)?