United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[DavidB.]

A new Survation poll shows support for leaving at 51% and support for staying at 49%. This is the first time since November of 2014 that they have found a lead for the Out campaign.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/09/05/uk-britain-eu-poll-idUKKCN0R50X820150905

Excellent.

[DavidB.]

From Cameron's perspective it is smart to do it this year. Governments are generally the least popular when they are halfway in their term, so holding it in 2017 would have the highest probability of the referendum being influenced by anti-government backlash, leading to a "leave" victory, which is obviously what Cameron tries to avoid. I had thought he would organize it in 2017 nonetheless, in order to wait until the migrant crisis would be properly solved and the EU's image somewhat less damaged. That would be a huge gamble anyway, for no one really knows when (and if) it will be solved.

[DavidB.]

OFFICIAL: "NO" WINS THE LUCRATIVE ENDORSEMENT OF MY GRANDMA

"NO" = "remain", I assume?

[DavidB.]

I would say it's also a bit sick to discuss the implications of this at this time.

Why? One can simultaneously be disgusted by this terrible attack and think of its potential political consequences. I think this will hurt the "out" side.

[DavidB.]

I would say it's also a bit sick to discuss the implications of this at this time.

Why? One can simultaneously be disgusted by this terrible attack and think of its potential political consequences. I think this will hurt the "out" side.

Outside this forum I wouldn't have to even answer that question...

It's just a bit hypocritical for people to pretend as if they don't think of the political consequences of this attack, because everybody does. But if that's what you prefer, then fine, I guess

[DavidB.]

I mean it's long been a rule on here that we don't start a by-election discussion within a few hours of an MP's death.

This referendum is not a by-election.

[DavidB.]

I think Scotland will be more strongly "remain" than Northern Ireland. Scots seem to have decided that leaving is a bad idea because it represents a sort of English nationalism they despise, whereas this exact form of nationalism is espoused by many loyalists in Northern Ireland. Many of them may vote remain nonetheless, since leaving would probably hurt Ulster's economy, but a large percentage will follow the English nationalist mainstream and vote leave -- larger than the "leave" percentage in Scotland.

[DavidB.]

Prediction:

Remain 52.9%
Leave 47.1%

Turnout 63%

[DavidB.]

Somebody asked over three hundred Edinburgh-area Grindr users their opinions on the referendum. Of these, Grindr User Stephen has pretty much my exact opinion.

Thank you for making my day with this.

[DavidB.]

This has to be an Atlas poster

[DavidB.]

Hear! Hear! And to quote Boris Johnson: you speak for hundreds of millions who currently have no voice.

The leave camp speaks for me, and so many dutch people who dont have the chance to vote on the EU.

May Britain show the path to freedom once more!

Yes.

[DavidB.]

It's happening!

[DavidB.]

Wonderful!

[DavidB.]

It's happening gif.

[DavidB.]

Hot damn. It seems like it's happening. I hope my friends and I will go drunk not only on beer and wine tonight, but also on champagne. But it's still early.

[DavidB.]

Long live England!  What a beautiful, strong country.  So proud of them.

Amen v'amen!

[DavidB.]

Not enough Remain territory left, I am afraid. Leave should be given advantage.

Be'ezrat HaShem!

[DavidB.]

I wonder who the Leave voters will blame in several years when things don't get much better.

who do you think

I genuinely wonder what the answer of this question would be.

[DavidB.]

Nige

[DavidB.]

Congratulations to all those who are no doubt delighted: Putin shills, PRC bots, trots, fascists, Nazis, reprobates, people who plan on being dead in the next year, anti-Semites etc

LOL!

Rrrrrrrule Britannia!

I dislike the idea someone like you who despises our country is singing Rule Britainia.

So? I really dont care what you think. I will sing it again. I learned the text at school, I also learned 'Land of Hope and Glory'. It were the english that fought at Arnhem, that liberated our country. I've always admired the country for its love of freedom and independence.

The dutch and the english had their differences in the past, but right now this referendum gives me and so many people in the Netherlands real hope that democracy isn't completely dead yet.

Because you want to see the UK fail (as for your support of this nights fruitless suicide), I highly doubt you care about this country at all.

Oh, come on, CrabCake. You know it's not this simple. People like DutchConservative and I, and, more importantly, many Britons, do care about your country. Some concerns about the EU are illegitimate, but many qualms to stay are. Let's not oversimplify this issue. There are "Little Englander" racists, but most Brexit voters are reasonable people who simply disagree with the Remain arguments, sometimes with arguments you yourself would agree with too.

[DavidB.]

yesssssssss!!!!!!

[DavidB.]

mazel tov, to the UK! #Leave

[DavidB.]

Any potential EU endeavors to screw the UK over will only lead to more euroskepticism in EU member states, not less. It's amazing EU officials continue to be in denial about the effectivity of such scare tactics. If Germany and France were to deny the UK a good deal, I would even more like to see the Netherlands leave the EU, not less, because it once again proves that the EU, fundamentally, is all about a quite scary anti-democratic centralization ideology instead of mutual interests.

[DavidB.]

Turnout in the Salford wards with big Hasidic populations barely above GE levels; another minority not terribly enthused either way?

Spoke with a Stamford Hill Hasid about the referendum, turnout, and the mood in his neighborhood. Most who did turn out voted remain, and it appears to me that this was mainly because of the ties between communities in the UK and communities in Antwerp. If you want your son or daughter to get married to someone in Antwerp, it's easier if they can live there without much hassle, and if you want to sell something, it's easy if there are few restrictions, etc... But many also didn't vote; a combination of being low-info (the Hasid I talked with, who didn't vote, admitted he didn't know who was the new PM) and not caring about politics in general because G-d rules the world.