United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[rob in cal]

  Which side would benefit most from a lower turnout?  My guess would be Leave as it might have the most committed supporters who are going to vote no matter what.  Also, does London normally have lower turnout than the rest of the UK? As its a Remain stronghold that might have implications in a close vote.

[rob in cal]

   Well, California in a way has many attributes of the US as a whole, with people from all over the US having settled there, plus people from around the world.  Our initiative system works ok, but best I think when there aren't that many on the ballot and they are clear in their meanings and implications.

[rob in cal]

  Have the postal ballots been sent out yet?  And what % of the electorate would be expected to vote by mail?

[rob in cal]

   Chris, keep working on your sister, I hope you turn her around.  Has the leave side mentioned the positive precedent of Switzerland, a non-EU state that is doing just fine without membership?

[rob in cal]

   How has the leave side addressed the issue of British citizens losing EU rights to retire in southern Europe without having to get a special non-EU citizen residence permit? I would think this would be an appealing argument for the remain side to appeal to older-middle aged voters.

[rob in cal]

   That politico article was pretty interesting.  I wonder if Saddiq Khan's election as London mayor brought home to people the fact that, for better or for worse, there are vast ethnic transformations under way in many parts of Britain, and some people actually don't want Britain to undergo this transformation, even though much of this is from non-EU immigration and Britain can already control this whether its in or out of the EU.

[rob in cal]

  Switzerland is also part of Schengen, not part of EU. 

[rob in cal]

  Chris, hopefully your prediction is correct.  I wonder about the London figures. The leave number is pretty strong, but maybe that's a function of overall Leave momentum. Btw, are the East Midlands generally considered the strongest Leave area?

[rob in cal]

    Do we have any idea of the postal vote returns by region?  Not the results of course, but how many ballots have been returned.

[rob in cal]

   The daily telegraph has a live feed of Sunderland vote counting. Exciting viewing.

[rob in cal]

   One thing is certain. The British electorate is far more in favor of Brexit in percentage terms than parliament.

[rob in cal]

  What was yougovs election day result in the GE last year?

[rob in cal]

UKIP remain voters might figure the following:  Well, the powers that be will always insist on more immigration, so we might as well have more Poles, Rumainians and Slovaks, instead of more Ghanians, Somalis and Sri Lankans.

[rob in cal]

What would have been a good Clakmannshire result for the remain side?

[rob in cal]

  What about the heavy remain vote in London?  Wouldn't that indicated that ethnic minorities voted strongly for remain?

[rob in cal]

  Should Norway, and Switzerland's credit ratings also be downgraded.  We can clearly see what economic disasters these countries are due to their not being in the EU.

[rob in cal]

   So, what happened with the block of districts from Stroud in the west to Chiltern in the east that all went for Remain.  Was this expected? Is this the greater Oxford educational industrial complex effect?

[rob in cal]

  Anything special about the London areas that voted in the 70% and on up range for remain?

[rob in cal]

    Anyone have any feelings on what areas had the most surprising results?  Either in terms of turnout or outcome?

[rob in cal]

   I wonder if the fear that a Britain out of the EU doing fine, and thereby creating an example for others, will influence the EU leadership to make Brexit a complicated and difficult process for Britain, so that it has less  chance to pull this off successfully.

[rob in cal]

  Some more revote ideas.  How about Norway, which only narrowly rejected EU membership in 1994, and France which only narrowly approved Maastricht in 1992?

[rob in cal]

   Derpist, I wonder if its the case that basically anything that smacks of nationalism, even if driven by a huge working class vote and against the clear wishes of most of the wealthy, will now spark this strident opposition.

[rob in cal]

   I wonder about all those expat Brits in Spain.  I would think the Spanish government would work on finding a way to let them stay without too many problems.  Don't most of them spend money which comes from the UK into  the Spanish economy and not work?

[rob in cal]

   I'm wondering about how the Labor party vote went in non-London area Labor held seats.  If in fact 70% of Labor voters in total voted against Brexit, how did so many Labor held seats go for Brexit?  Would it be something like 40% of Labor voters in these areas going for Brexit, plus the UKIPers in the district, plus 60% of Tory voters, all of this combined equaling the big majorities for Brexit in so many of these areas?

[rob in cal]

    Do we have any poll results or analysis for how the vote on Brexit by party preference went by region.  If Britain wide only 30% of Labour supporters voted for Brexit, I'd love to see how that worked itself out by region.  There must have been huge swings among Labour supporters between London and non-London, North vs non-North, middle class Labour vs non-middle class etc.