United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[ObserverIE]

Anyone have any idea what Northern Ireland thinks? In a close race NI could decide it.

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/opinion/debateni/bill-white/how-will-northern-ireland-vote-in-the-upcoming-eu-referendum-34176966.html

[ObserverIE]

Here's my guess of how each of the 12 regions of the UK will vote from north to south:

Northern Ireland - Heavily remain possibly due to high EU funding there.

Much more due to two factors:

1. It's the one area which would have to cope with an external border in the event of Brexit and whose economy would be most seriously damaged by Brexit.
2. You're starting with 40%+ of the population who have absolutely no inclination to identify with the xenophobic Union Jack-draped nationalism that motivates so much of the Leave campaigns. Like Scotland, it's based on an appeal to an identity that people don't share.

[ObserverIE]

Here's my guess of how each of the 12 regions of the UK will vote from north to south:

Northern Ireland - Heavily remain possibly due to high EU funding there.

Much more due to two factors:

1. It's the one area which would have to cope with an external border in the event of Brexit and whose economy would be most seriously damaged by Brexit.
2. You're starting with 40%+ of the population who have absolutely no inclination to identify with the xenophobic Union Jack-draped nationalism that motivates so much of the Leave campaigns. Like Scotland, it's based on an appeal to an identity that people don't share.

DUP, lergest NI party is for leaving, PBPA and TUV two minor parliamentary parties from NI are also for leaving, so it could be interesting. dont call xenophobic people you desagree with.

I think it's fair enough to say that a campaign which seems almost entirely based on opposition to immigration and fantasies about how everything would be wonderful if only immigrants could be excluded, and whose leading politician makes comparisons between the EU and Hitler is appealing to xenophobia.





The DUP and TUV appeal to the same sense of xenophobic nationalism, though directed at a different out-group (although the DUP has toned it down at leadership level over the last few years). PBP are a collection of Trotskyist grievance-mongers and impossibilists.

[ObserverIE]

I think it's fair enough to say that a campaign which seems almost entirely based on opposition to immigration and fantasies about how everything would be wonderful if only immigrants could be excluded, and whose leading politician makes comparisons between the EU and Hitler is appealing to xenophobia.

I've already voted (for Brexit) by post based on the sovereignty issue and a deep suspicion of the direction the EU is headed (a United States Of Europe). A direction it's always headed in since it's founding in the 1950's.

It's not all about immigration and to call all Brexiters xenophobic and racist is weak and lazy.

It may not all be about immigration but it seems to be the issue that the Leave campaigns shout the loudest about.

Personally, I'm not at all impressed with the way that the EU is being run at the moment in terms of economic ideology. I voted against Nice I and Lisbon II, but I think the chances of a "United States of Europe" are absolutely zero because there's no support for the idea among the general populaces of European states. There's no common European demos around which such a concept could be built.

But flawed and all as the EU is, I do not want to see it disintegrate into a mess of squabbling states led by tinpot Mussolinis, playthings for Putin, Trump and Xi Jinping. And at a more selfish level, I do not want to see my country's economy and society damaged because of a larger neighbour's emotional spasms.

[ObserverIE]

The worst of both worlds, lol.

I mean, if England Brexits, it deserves the worst of both world. It should become more integrated into European institutions than it is now, but without the seat at the table when these are negotiated. Hopefully, they would also force them to abandon the pound in exchange for retaining trade access.

Same threats were made to Norway and Switzerland.
And if the EU countries decided cut their nose to spite their faces, in an event of a Leave Vote. The following will Happen:
-Fifth of the cars manufactured in Germany are sold in the Uk, and as results thousands of jobs will be lost.
-The U.K. Is the biggest customer for French wine and cheese industries, many French farmers will suffer as result.
-over two thirds of Irish beef is sold in the Uk, majority of Irish farmers will be devastated.
- and there other examples

Bare in mind, next year there will be elections in both France and Germany, I wonder what Merkel will say to those car manufacturers and in France what will Hollande say to French farmers,

The EU sells more to the UK, then the UK sells to the EU, so if the EU decides to play this dirty little game, they will suffer as result more then us.

In absolute terms, they sell more to you than you do to them. In relative terms, they sell a lot less.

You seem to expect them to respond in a coldly logical, economically rational manner (or, more precisely, logical and rational based on your flawed anaylsis) to a set of economically irrational actions, actions which seem to be based largely on xenophobia, nostalgia for the good old days when half the world was coloured red on an atlas, and a mixture of paranoia and delusions of grandeur on a scale not seen in Europe anywhere west of the "Donetsk People's Republic".

You might be lucky, but then the poison that the Leave campaign and its supportive media are injecting into the British body politic is unlikely to stay localised in the U.K. Insult and belittle people and you may find out that they decide not to play nice in response.

As for Ireland, you may think that we're your hostage, holding a gun to our head and promising to wreak bloody murder on us unless Germany and France play nice. In reality, I'm not confident that Germany and France will care all that much, but you know what? We survived Cromwell. We survived Lord John Russell. We survived the Black and Tans. If needs be, we will survive Michael f***ing Gove. (As I said, the poison is not going to stay localised in the U.K.)

[ObserverIE]

Bored so going to guess most Remain and Leave LAs within each region

Northern Ireland: Does a single count so we won't know the result for this result. I'd say though the Leave will correlate very strongly to areas of hardline loyalism, with remain doing especially along the border and areas (obviously) which are very Catholic. I suspect turnout in NI will be low, much lower than in rUK for this.

I think they're being counted individually. Highest Remain is likely to be Foyle or Belfast West (based purely on demographics) or Newry/Armagh or West Tyrone (less Catholic but more agricultural and integrated economically across the border). Highest Leave at a guess East Antrim (not especially rural but heavily Protestant and working-class/lower middle-class Protestant at that) followed by Strangford.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Hoey is Lambeth (the Vauxhall CLP must have the patience of Job at this stage or else be composed of a set of doormats). Overall in England, I'd expect a strong correlation between the Yes to AV vote and the Remain vote.

[ObserverIE]

Because so long as the Euro single currency doesn't collapse the Eurozone will continue to amalgamate into a single country.

Any actual evidence to provide a basis for this assertion? I don't see any sign of Germany wishing to amalgamate into a single country with France, never mind Greece.

[ObserverIE]

Because so long as the Euro single currency doesn't collapse the Eurozone will continue to amalgamate into a single country.

Any actual evidence to provide a basis for this assertion? I don't see any sign of Germany wishing to amalgamate into a single country with France, never mind Greece.

Progress must happen on four fronts: first, towards a genuine Economic Union that ensures each economy has the structural features to prosper within the Monetary Union. Second, towards a Financial Union that guarantess the integrity of our currency across the Monetary Union and increases risk-sharing with the private sector. This means completing the Banking Union and accelerating the Capital Markets Union. Third, towards a Fiscal Union that delivers both fiscal sustainability and fiscal stabilisation. And finally, towards a Political Union that provides the foundation for all of the above through genuine democratic accountability, legitimacy and institutional strengthening.

Once they reach the political union stage a single European state will be a reality. It all very helpfully written in plain English too

The bolded bits are in the original text so I copied it.

https://ec.europa.eu/priorities/sites/beta-political/files/5-presidents-report_en.pdf

We have, frankly, been listening to this kind of bullsh:t from the Junckers and Schulzes and their predecessors for ever. It makes a ritual nod towards the tiny minority of serious federalists but it has the side-effect of increasing the paranoia of the tinfoil-hat brigades, especially in the UK, and it gets ignored by the actual national governments, except possibly in the Augustinian sense of "make me holy, Lord, but not yet". There is absolutely no sign of any of it coming to pass. They haven't even got as far as the first stage of getting monetary union to work properly yet.

When I hear it coming from Merkel and Hollande (or their successors) with concrete timelines I'll take it seriously. Until then it's simply the same guff that's been recycled all your lifetime and mine.

[ObserverIE]

Remain 52 Leave 48, all of my British mates from London are voting remain with all my chav friends fro the home counties voting leave. I reckon it'll be closer than predicted.
Remain win in: London, Cornwall, North East (by small margin), Scotland, NI, Wales (by a razor thin margin). Leave wins the rest.

Cameron still ousted within a year and Ukip will have a field day with the remain victory relying on the 'celtic' vote

The North-West (Liverpool, Manchester) is more likely to be Remain than Cornwall.

If it's a narrow Remain, then Cameron struggles on for a year while UKIP and the Tory Right polish their Dolchstoßlegende about "money and the ethnic vote" (to paraphrase Jacques Parizeau), before the enmities stoked up within the Tory party produce a leadership coup and/or civil war.

If it's a narrow Leave, then Cameron goes immediately, and is replaced by Johnson, who probably calls a quick "khaki" general election. You then get an economic programme implemented afterwards well to the right of anything we've seen before. If (if?) economic turbulence ensues, then the search will begin for new domestic and external scapegoats. The London Mayoral Election will look like an exercise in subtlety in retrospect.

[ObserverIE]

What time EST will the BBC broadcast begin and I found a link to BBC 1, live stream.
http://www.zoptv.com/live/bbc-one

Can one of the posters that live in the UK verify that, that stream is the actual live stream.

I don't live in the UK, but I live close enough to the Northern Ireland border to be able to pick up BBC and the other British channels on digital.

Not sure about BBC 1 (it's showing Northern Ireland news on live television here), but

http://www.zoptv.com/live/bbc-news

is the correct stream, even if about a minute time-delayed.

[ObserverIE]

Isn't NI supposed to be pro-remain?

That part of NI is heavily Unionist, which backed leave.

Lagan Valley is much more strongly Unionist than North Antrim, but it's largely middle-class. North Antrim is rural and while its about 75:25 Protestant:Catholic that Protestant vote is more likely to be evangelical. The "No Popery" vote.

[ObserverIE]

Whatever the result we can now say approaching half the country is going to hate the other for wrecking Britain

Frankly, if you want to burn down your own house it's your own business.

But I'm entitled to be p*ssed-off if you decide to set mine on fire in the process.

[ObserverIE]

So if England is leave and Wales is leave and Northern Ireland is leave...

On the figures so far (particularly Lagan Valley), I'd expect Northern Ireland to be Remain.

[ObserverIE]

Lambeth, south London result:
Remain: 78.6% (111,584)
Leave: 21.4% (30,340)

Could London still save Remain?

There's an awful lot of rural and industrial England still to come in.

[ObserverIE]

Remain.

East Derry (60:40 Unionist) has voted Remain. The four remaining constituencies will all vote Remain on that basis, although the sectarian breakdown in Fermanagh/South Tyrone will make it closer.

[ObserverIE]

Btw, Brum voting that way should at least shut up certain racist types. Certain minorities cannot have been overwhelmingly Remain if...

Should, but won't.

[ObserverIE]

Scotland:

Remain 62.0 Leave 38.0

Northern Ireland:

Remain 55.8 Leave 44.2

Wales:

Remain 47.5 Leave 52.5

[ObserverIE]

One of the things that concerns me most about this is that, if things don't get dramatically better, who or what becomes the Eurosceptic punching bag? Leftists? Minorities?

I would expect Muslims to be first in line.

[ObserverIE]

One of the things that concerns me most about this is that, if things don't get dramatically better, who or what becomes the Eurosceptic punching bag? Leftists? Minorities?

As a Brexiter, I sincerely hope this isn't the birth of an Enoch Powell 2.0 movement.

I fear you're a bit late for that. But then at least you're on the opposite side of the globe. Some of us will be facing this at much closer quarters.

[ObserverIE]

The thing that really gets me is the dishonesty and fear mongering over Northern Ireland. There is absolutely not going to be border checkpoints set up. Absolutely no way. The most likely thing to happen is  there will be a passport required to travel between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.

There are going to have to be custom checks and a whole world of possible extra paperwork for what have become two highly-integrated economies over the last twenty years. The alternative is that the UK (or what's left of it) takes on EEA membership, which requires accepting freedom of movement, which is precisely what the Leave voters were rearing up against.

Passport controls at Stranraer might be more feasible than trying to seal off a 300-mile border but it's going to p*ss off the No Popery brigade who were the vast majority of the Leave vote in Northern Ireland (notice how more demographically Protestant but predominantly suburban middle-class constituencies like North Down, South Antrim, Belfast East and Lagan Valley voted Remain or were close, while the rural evangelicals in North Antrim and the working-class loyalist paramilitary followers in Belfast North voted Leave to a man).

[ObserverIE]

Even as a Brixiter it feels a bit unreal today.

Only for a brief few days in early June did I think Leave could win when several opinion polls showed large Brexit leads.

By the weekend that had changed and continued to change during this week so I was confident that Remain would win the day in the end.

As early as the Newcastle and Sunderland results it looked promising for Leave and apart for results in Scotland and London the results were a consistent Brexit majority in most polling areas.

As Janet Daly said on Dateline London following President Obama's intervention and the subsequent negative reaction to it by British voters "history shows that the British are a resilient lot and refuse to be bullied".

Not understanding that character trait of the British people was one of the main errors of the Cameron and Osborne campaign strategy.

And so it proved last night

You really think Obama had anything do with the result?

Yep I've talked to several people who said that that was the moment they decided to vote Leave. Obama's intervention went down like a lead balloon with many people here.

How big a factor was him being an uppity "half-Kenyan" ((c) Boris Johnson) with these type of voters?

[ObserverIE]

Opinium poll - 7% of Leave voters and 3% of Remain voters regret their votes.

So we are potentially now at a point where remain would win.

Sigh...

Talking about a second referendum is pointless and counter-productive at the moment.

You probably need a couple of years of the brown stuff consistently hitting the fan before there's any point in revisiting the issue. The economic effects of Brexit per se are going to be a relatively slow burner over the next two years; the potential bursting of the property bubble that could be prompted by Brexit, however, could do much more damage much more quickly.