United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[afleitch]

We don't know when it will be or exactly what we'll be voting on of course so we must be careful about how we speculate, but there's a decent chance that turnout could be rather low; say around 50% or so.

May 2016 is a better election window (Scotland, Wales, Norn Iron, London Mayor etc) than 2017 but it might be too soon. However now that Labour have rolled over and exposed it's fuzzy belly it might ease passage in time for that and also stops UKIP from fixing it's wheels in time to be a nuisance again.

[afleitch]

Why is Scotland more EU friendly than the rest of the UK?

It's questionable if we are; when it actually comes to a vote I think the difference will be negligible,but most polls over the past few decades never mind the past few years suggest that we are more receptive to the EU, which is quite a turnaround from 1975. It's worth noting is that the perception is that anti-EU rhetoric goes hand in hand with Little Englandism so that might explain things.

[afleitch]

The joint IN campaign in Scotland appears to be wisely 'standing aside' for the SNP campaign in Glasgow.

[afleitch]

We are living in a geriocracy.

[afleitch]

My gut feeling is that there will be a vote to leave. Scotland and Northern Ireland will vote to remain.

[afleitch]

For whatever this is worth, the ORB poll's internals are as wonky as hell and even the Leave campaign has been playing it down.

Indeed. But my gut feeling is mostly based on what appears to be a 'retreat' to Scotland/Northern Ireland in terms of campaigning. At least publically. Which makes me think they hope 'England' (though I'm aware of vast differences within England itself) can be battled out to a draw at most.

The key is Labour voters, and I think the fact Labour has, unintentionally allowed them to drift which is symptomatic of Labour's ongoing inability to actually understand who it's voters are while the membership and PLP have been throwing spit balls at each other for the past year.

There whole issue with 'immigrants' is so wonderfully vague that there's really no rebuttal to it. No one cares we control our borders with respect to non EEA migrants (which is actually what I think voters 'mean', when they talk about immigration rather than say Romanians and Poles), that being in or out of the EU doesn't negate our responsibilities on asylum etc.

Voters chose the easiest gradient to slide down when making decisions (and parties traditional support has been based on not wanting their voters engaging in much in depth issue by issue thinking anyway!)

If we stay in, and it's because of the 'Scots' (because nice easy gradients don't allow for people to deal with the concept of Northern Ireland being relevant. Ever. Or recognise any regional difference within England that taken seperately could also have 'swung' the result), we may start to 'feel the hate' a little up here which is probably a bigger catalyst for changing attitudes to independence than Scotland voting in, but being taken out.

[afleitch]

They've literally gone and changed methodology between polls. ffs.

Back to herding again, I see...

Yes. If there's a scent of a move back towards Remain in the last week they will all herd at 50-50 and declare themselves 'accurate' no matter the result.

[afleitch]

Campaigns suspended following the attempted (let us hope this remains the correct prefix) murder of Batley & Spen MP Jo Cox in what currently sounds like an act of far right political violence.

In what's currently a period of increasingly hostile rhetoric.

[afleitch]

I think Scotland will be more strongly "remain" than Northern Ireland. Scots seem to have decided that leaving is a bad idea because it represents a sort of English nationalism they despise, whereas this exact form of nationalism is espoused by many loyalists in Northern Ireland. Many of them may vote remain nonetheless, since leaving would probably hurt Ulster's economy, but a large percentage will follow the English nationalist mainstream and vote leave -- larger than the "leave" percentage in Scotland.

There is a sense that in many ways this referendum is an exercise in 'English nationalism' (and a particular sort of nationalism at that) and not anything remotely British in any sense. There are advantages in rUK voting out and Scotland voting in, whether that means we narrowly get pulled out or narrowly 'keep England in'.

The 'reticent unionist', concerned at the pound and remaining in the EU, rather than any particular attachment to the UK as a political entity are about 1 in 10 of the electorate and the key to what I do feel is inevitable independence, in the next 5, 10 or 20 years.

[afleitch]

Something fun from Populus

[afleitch]

I have read that, despite EU subsidies, Cornwall is amongst the most Euroesceptic regions.

Cornwallondon is difficult to judge on these things.

[afleitch]

The map itself is a model, but the spread of voting (even if the numbers aren't the same) looks plausible. It means we are now faced with a turnout battle. If support is strongly linked to rural/suburban v urban, then voting patterns would suggest that that should work in 'Leaves' favour.

What's fun about this is that the geographic In/Out patterns of support are basically the polar opposite of what they were in 1975.

[afleitch]

Somebody asked over three hundred Edinburgh-area Grindr users their opinions on the referendum. Of these, Grindr User Stephen has pretty much my exact opinion.

That's genius.

Voted in North Kelvinside. By half 10 it looked like 20-30% had voted already. Not bad.

[afleitch]

Reports of 70-80% turnout.

[afleitch]

52-48 either way depends entirely on turnout.

[afleitch]

Blaenau Gwent 60/40 leave according to bloody rumours

[afleitch]

A few more results and I think we can call it for Leave.

[afleitch]

I was joking with my post btw If it was up to the NE and it's early reporting, we'd have Labour landslides year on year.

[afleitch]

What would have been a good Clakmannshire result for the remain side?

The pre polling model has it, and Orkney, spot on.

[afleitch]

We may find in some areas that Labour voters who can't be arsed to vote in a Labour government, are coming out for Leave.

[afleitch]

Foyle 78.3 in. That's the border city of LondonDerry

[afleitch]

Shetland also IN. Which is interesting only because it was always going to be difficult to project.

[afleitch]

For those abroad, West Dunbartonshire contains working class Clydebank and Dumbarton.

[afleitch]

Labour out of touch with their core voters on a referendum again...

[afleitch]

Eilean Siar votes IN