United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[Filuwaúrdjan]

We don't know when it will be or exactly what we'll be voting on of course so we must be careful about how we speculate, but there's a decent chance that turnout could be rather low; say around 50% or so.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Immigration is less of a salient issue in Scotland because has had no mass immigration since the 19th century and no non-white mass immigration ever.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You would have thought that if turnout is in that range that would probably help the out campaign as their voters are likely to be more engaged and motivated over this major national issue.

There is indeed just a slight chance that this might turn into a clusterfyck of that nature, yes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Its more an understanding that the alternative would be bad for them (us!) than support for the institution.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Most young people are very far from being rich or believing that they have any chance of being so.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suppose if you mostly know about British politics via internet troglodytes that might seem to be so, but otherwise...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Hmm... well... let's just check something. Wait a second...

Here's a map of declared nominations from local parties:



Quite a lot of Corbyn nominations in all regions, I note.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The FSB isn't exactly reflective of most small businesses.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The FSB isn't exactly reflective of most small businesses.

Is it as representative of small businesses as the CBI is of larger ones?

I suppose it depends on how you define 'small business' but if anything even less so.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

As much as the EU sucks as an institution, personally I don't see the appeal of putting at risk the bulk of our high end manufacturing sector due to annoyance over the prohibition of bendy bananas or whatever.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Mostly British governments just sit on the sidelines and gripe about money.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The old rule with referendum polls is that you just look at the 'yes' figure. Not that people are even vaguely tuned into the debate yet. Or are even properly aware that there will be a vote.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The city of London is not the same thing as the City of London.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You'd be better off thinking of them in terms of age...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The old rule on referendums is that the key figure is the one representing change; people who don't know either don't vote or vote to keep the status quo. Right now the change option is struggling to reach the mid 40s even in favourable polls (and is well down in the 30s in unfavourable ones).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The fact is that presently only the usual obsessives care so polling is pretty much meaningless even if the vote is possibly near.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The first thing you have to understand is that, actually, most people don't care about the EU (much) either way. The second thing is that UKIP support patterns are a) not stable and b) can't be used as a proxy for attitudes towards the EU as that generally isn't why people vote for them (when they do). The last time there was a vote on this matter was forty years ago: while it is possible that the patterns observable then (i.e. relatively uniform but with higher In votes in Conservative strongholds, both urban and rural) it is not guaranteed. My suspicion is that the highest Out votes will be in rural areas with large numbers of transient - meaning that they won't be voting themselves - migrant workers (i.e. Lincolnshire) and that the highest In votes will be in places with very young populations.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

ahahahaha

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Is this becoming an issue in England? How much does an average English voter realize this?

The average English voter does not think about Scotland at all.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I see that my MPs business interests have outweighed any deference towards members of his local Association, lmao.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why do YouGov persist in believing that that type of exercise is anything other than a total waste of effort?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Doesn't a lot of the SW use a lot of EU funds?

Yes. In particular Cornwall benefits from the EUs gerrymandered definition of 'poor area' to rake in mucho Euro...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The thing about turnout is that no one really has a clue as to what it will be.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Cameron is basically done, one way or the other. Kind of hilarious as it is entirely his own fault. The succession is on even if he stays in post for a few more years.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Like the primary issue with the Labour base vote in this referendum is getting it to actually turn out at all.