United Kingdom Referendum on European Union Membership

[politicallefty]

I know this is something the US Government will absolutely stay out of, but would a UK exit of the EU force a strengthening of US-UK ties? (I realize there have been some comments against leaving by some US officials, but I highly doubt the US Government would isolate the UK upon a Brexit.) There would almost undoubtedly be some economic repercussions for leaving. I have to wonder whether or not a UK-US FTA could possibly be in the cards. Certainly on our side, Congress would easily approve such an agreement.

[politicallefty]

I know it's a different issue, but it's stats like those that make me glad this isn't a Sanders/Trump race in the US.

I didn't post here Thursday night, but I did follow the results closely. To be honest, I really didn't follow the campaign too closely. I was one of those people that just basically assumed Remain would win. (Personally, I basically would have been a reluctant Remain voter. In other words, I'm not really a fan of the EU as it is, but I think leaving would be worse and deny Britons of many rights and opportunities.)

I do want to say, from an American perspective, that I absolutely love the way elections are run in the UK. I personally love following UK elections, even when they don't go my way (like this year and last year). To those that bring President Obama into this equation, do you really think he would have spoken about an issue like this in public without first talking to Prime Minister David Cameron? I have no doubt in my mind that Cameron wanted Obama to lend an additional voice to the Remain campaign. President Obama does maintain that the "Special Relationship" has not changed. If there's one bright side I'm hopeful for, it's that we could perhaps negotiate a bilateral FTA between the US and the UK. I'm normally skeptical when it comes to free trade agreements, but there are very few better than one between the US and the UK. I personally believe very strongly in the "Special Relationship" and I only want to make it as strong as possible.

[politicallefty]

I hope this isn't a stupid question, but why exactly is the area around the Thames Estuary so pro-Leave (and by extension so pro-UKIP, as I do recall that area sending a UKIP MP to Parliament last year)?

[politicallefty]

Out of curiosity, will there ever be a way to see the referendum results by constituency?

I think one of the most disturbing things Labour has to face is that a lot of their typical voters (particularly in the North) voted against the party position to Remain. The first British election I closely followed was 2005, when I was 17 (CNN even aired some of the live individual constituency results). I remember playing around with the Swingometer a lot to see what could happen, like to see what it would take to take to defeat the any of the party leaders. I remember it being some almost astronomical swing to defeat Tony Blair in his own seat.

The reason I mention that is because I was looking at some of the results in more detail. Is it possible that Tony Blair's old Sedgefield seat actually voted Leave? As much as I couldn't and still can't stand Blair, he still did lead Labour to greatness for three consecutive elections. If areas like those are leaving Labour, I hope the party will recognize what is happening in time for the next election. As an American Labour supporter, I hope they do. Labour cannot afford to lose white working class voters like the Democrats here have.

At this point, I really miss the UK that voted for Tony Blair three times considering what's coming next. So long as Boris Johnson wasn't a serious contender, I've been expecting Theresa May to win. May seems to at least be mainstream, although I think she'd stand a strong chance at winning another majority in 2020. On the other hand, I doubt Leadsom's ability to win a majority in 2020 (although they'd still probably be first in a Hung Parliament, assuming the UK as we know it is still intact), but she's not the type I'd like to see as Prime Minister for the next four years.