Is Christie finished?

[Sir Mohamed]

Thinking back to 2013, just after winnig a landslide reelection in a deep blue state, NJ Governor Chris Christie seemed to be one of the Republican frontrunners. Back those days, I was convinced that along with Jeb Bush he had the best chaces of winning in 2016 out of the Republican contenders.

But now? Is Christie finished after all the troubles in his state? Is he running? He's lagging behind in many polls...

[RR1997]

Yes.

According to polls, he is literally unpopular with every demographic. He's done.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

I think he has an opening if Bush, Walker, and Rubio all implode. Barring that, he's done.

[publicunofficial]

He'll get a small poll bump if and when he enters, but yeah we've already seen Christie's peak (It was 2 years ago).

He has no base of support. His own state hates him. There are several candidates who outclass him in every category.

[TomC]

Wars, recessions, culture clash... He screwed with people's commute just out of spite. This should be a lesson to all executives.

Yes, he's done.

[© tweed]

looks like it, I think he'll be smart enough not to run.  he could be a 2020 favorite if Hillary wins.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He'll get a small poll bump if and when he enters, but yeah we've already seen Christie's peak (It was 2 years ago).

He has no base of support. His own state hates him. There are several candidates who outclass him in every category.

Christie and Jeb seem pretty similar in a way; just like he cant fight out of shadow of his brother.

Jeb will get a small bump; as the Christie support has gone when enters.

They peaked early.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I agree with everyone here.  He's done, and he'll never be elected to anything else again.  He'll never be a Cabinet Secretary, because now, he couldn't clear the hurdle of Senate confirmation.

I can't see what constituency backs him.  The only thing he had going was the perception that he was a winner, and now he looks like a sure loser.  If he's lucky, he'll move to a NJ Congressional District full of Republicans where he MIGHT get elected when the incumbent retires.  That's being generous; local NJ Republicans probably view Christie as a guy who's brought unnecessary heat on them.

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

If he's lucky, he'll move to a NJ Congressional District full of Republicans where he MIGHT get elected when the incumbent retires.  That's being generous; local NJ Republicans probably view Christie as a guy who's brought unnecessary heat on them.

Let's do a little Christie Career-planning here. There are 6 congressional republicans from New Jersey:

Obama carried two in 2008 & 2012, so no go for Christie here: NJ-02 (LoBiondo)/NJ-03 (MacArthur)

NJ-05 (Garrett) is only R+4 and was only 51-48 for both Romney and McCain. So not republican enough.

The rest appear republican enough, but the margins are narrow enough that the districts MIGHT not be willing to vote for Christie if he's still toxic enough whenever he decides to run for the house:

NJ-04 (Smith): R+7, 54-45 Romney/McCain
NJ-07 (Lance): R+6, 52-47 McCain, 53-46 Romney
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen): R+6, 52-47 Romney/McCain

I don't think any NJ republican of any standing would be disrespectful enough to the (recent) governor of their state from the same party to actually run against them in the primary. And even if they hate him enough to do it, Christie would likely be able to outraise them via a few billionaires who like him, and likely either scare them away or easily defeat them in the primary. And in the GE, the districts seem republican enough that Christie should be okay unless he's a failure on the campaign trail, some conservadem with good retail politics runs, and/or the voters in the district take on a ANYBODY (including a partisan democrat) BUT CHRISTIE attitude.

So, it looks like Christie has a good shot in NJ-4/7/11, if he actually wants to be in the house.

[BlueSwan]

I wouldn't rule him out yet. The polls are horrible, but in this field, without a clear frontrunner, it probably wouldn't take much more than a killer debate performance to get him back in contention. And Christie is just the kind of candidate who could deliver such a debate performance.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

If he's lucky, he'll move to a NJ Congressional District full of Republicans where he MIGHT get elected when the incumbent retires.  That's being generous; local NJ Republicans probably view Christie as a guy who's brought unnecessary heat on them.

Let's do a little Christie Career-planning here. There are 6 congressional republicans from New Jersey:

Obama carried two in 2008 & 2012, so no go for Christie here: NJ-02 (LoBiondo)/NJ-03 (MacArthur)

NJ-05 (Garrett) is only R+4 and was only 51-48 for both Romney and McCain. So not republican enough.

The rest appear republican enough, but the margins are narrow enough that the districts MIGHT not be willing to vote for Christie if he's still toxic enough whenever he decides to run for the house:

NJ-04 (Smith): R+7, 54-45 Romney/McCain
NJ-07 (Lance): R+6, 52-47 McCain, 53-46 Romney
NJ-11 (Frelinghuysen): R+6, 52-47 Romney/McCain

I don't think any NJ republican of any standing would be disrespectful enough to the (recent) governor of their state from the same party to actually run against them in the primary. And even if they hate him enough to do it, Christie would likely be able to outraise them via a few billionaires who like him, and likely either scare them away or easily defeat them in the primary. And in the GE, the districts seem republican enough that Christie should be okay unless he's a failure on the campaign trail, some conservadem with good retail politics runs, and/or the voters in the district take on a ANYBODY (including a partisan democrat) BUT CHRISTIE attitude.

So, it looks like Christie has a good shot in NJ-4/7/11, if he actually wants to be in the house.

Good analysis, but Christie has zero interest in being a legislator. I literally can't see him as one either. His entire strength is using the bully pulpit to yell about what legislators are not doing.

I think he's done with politics after this, but cabinet is within the realm of possibilities.

As for 2016, I won't count him out, but I'm less optimistic than I was over the last two months.

[Blair]

Yeah going from a 2012 VP choice, and 2016 front runner to a congressman is a big step down.

Tbh part of me thought it was over was when the stuff about the Romney Campaign vetting him came out

[Vega]

Very rarely do Governors want to make the transition to the Senate, let alone the House. Mark Sanford did it, but his circumstances were under different circumstances (he used to serve in the House); that being said, one could see winning a House seat as a way for Christie to rehabilitate himself.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

His poll numbers are bad, yeah... but the field is so volatile, and there's no denying that he has a lot of political skill. I'm not prepared to count him out.

Same goes for Rick Perry, actually, but he's got a harder task in that he can't break through if he doesn't make the debates.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Yes he is toast, he is viewed more unfavorably by republicans than FAVORABLE! LOL

Hes finished, 2012 was his shot, he opted to wait and now republican voters have soured on him.

Rubio, Bush, or Walker will be the nominee.....Very obvious.

[DS0816]

Re: Is Christie finished?

Yes.

[Likely Voter]

In the two polls released today (YouGov and Quinni) Christie is ranked 9th with 3%-4%. His whole comeback strategy is based on having a big debate moment.  If one or two of the bottom tier candidates pop up Christie is at risk of not even making it into the FOX debate, especially if Trump gets in. I think it is possible he doesn't get in. While his ego is the reason why he hasn't given up yet, it would also keep him from risking the embarrassment of getting in the race and being rejected from the first debate (or even attending the CNN 'kiddie table' debate).

[NHI]

I wouldn't rule him out yet. The polls are horrible, but in this field, without a clear frontrunner, it probably wouldn't take much more than a killer debate performance to get him back in contention. And Christie is just the kind of candidate who could deliver such a debate performance.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

He's even more finished now. (Not that he wasn't before.) During the annual roast of the NJ governor, he apparently launched a profanity-laced diatribe against reporters criticizing his administration:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/chris-christie-roast-vulgar-journalists

[Maxwell]

He's in pretty bad shape, but a comeback is not impossible. This field has the potential to crumble, and if that's the case, look out for a Christie comeback.

[All Along The Watchtower]

I seriously don't understand what's so appealing about Christie to anyone.

[DS0816]

He's in pretty bad shape, but a comeback is not impossible. This field has the potential to crumble, and if that's the case, look out for a Christie comeback.

What kind of a "comeback" did you have in mind?

 …The successful launch of a new acting career benefiting Chris Christie a few years after the death of James Gandolfini?

[The Dowager Mod]

Cuddling with Jerrah Jones on national T.V. won't help him either.

[Maxwell]

He's in pretty bad shape, but a comeback is not impossible. This field has the potential to crumble, and if that's the case, look out for a Christie comeback.

What kind of a "comeback" did you have in mind?

 …The successful launch of a new acting career benefiting Chris Christie a few years after the death of James Gandolfini?

I'm sure his debate appearances will all be memorable at least, which probably means he gets a surge at some point.

Still, probably a zero percent chance he wins the nomination. But I don't think he has a zero percent chance of winning a single state.

[IceSpear]

Yes