What makes states trend right?

[RINO Tom]

NYM, I think you have good points, but I'm sure you can also see why it gets annoying to constantly read some of the - err - optimistic predictions of future election trends coming from Forum Democrats.  It really does come off as if a state is not a wasteland (i.e., has a relatively educated population, has nice and growing suburbs, has a cosmopolitan area or two, has diversity, etc.), it will soon be a Lean D state, and every "enlightened" demographic (i.e., the highly educated, the tolerant, those who live in wealthy areas, etc.) is forever embracing the Democratic Party ... and I think we all know that's a disturbingly self-indulging representation of the Democratic coalition.  Of course, you didn't insinuate any of that, but I'm just trying to understand where RockefellerGOP's rather snappy response might have come from.

As for your comments, I don't necessarily disagree with them all, but here's my attempt at devil's advocate:

1. Why might Minnesota become more Republican?  Well, it's not unreasonable to think that rural Minnesota - an area that votes a lot more Democratic than the rural areas in other Midwestern states - will trend away from the Democrats, is it?  It might not, but it's not outrageous.  Additionally, Minneapolis' suburbs might be the most GOP-friendly part of the state, and they're growing.

2. Similarly to MN, I don't think it's crazy to think the UP and some of Michigan's other rural areas might trend slightly toward the Republicans, especially if Democrats keep running campaigns that seem geared entirely toward running up margins in urban areas and inner-suburbs.  I doubt the GOP makes up that much ground in MI, but they have room to grow.  Wisconsin, like MN, has some very GOP-friendly suburbs around Milwaukee.  If Republicans can do even a little bit better with minorities, the state is very much in play.

3. The Republicans' way to win Pennsylvania comes from presenting itself as more moderate and gaining back its old margins in the suburbs.  I think that will be a little more difficult, seeing as many of Philadelphia's suburbs are now a lot more diverse and working class than they were in the '80s (when the GOP was winning them).

4. I think if the GOP were willing to moderate on CULTURAL issues (notice: not social issues ... being pro-life and pro-Second Amendment is not hurting the GOP electorally; being anti-gay marriage and appearing xenophobic is) - which isn't out of the question when you look at polls of younger Republicans compared to their parents - some of the first states to see big gains in would be NH and ME.  They both have somewhat libertarian electorates, both were Republican states for decades and both continue to elect Republicans to at least some statewide offices.

5. I agree that Ohio will remain a battleground state ... I mean when was the last time it wasn't?

[100% pro-life no matter what]

20 years from now:

[Brandern]

Dude, Minnesota's suburbs are not trending right.

We have like two GOP members who is in the suburbs. There used to be a lot more.

Twin Cities suburbanites are among the richest and best-educated in the country, you think they are attracted to the knuckle-dragging hillbillies from the south?

The "new" GOP has utterly repulsed Minnesotans.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Dude, Minnesota's suburbs are not trending right.

We have like two GOP members who is in the suburbs. There used to be a lot more.

Twin Cities suburbanites are among the richest and best-educated in the country, you think they are attracted to the knuckle-dragging hillbillies from the south?

The "new" GOP has utterly repulsed Minnesotans.

The TC suburbs are the most Republican part of your state, doofus.

[Brandern]

The TC suburbs are the most Republican part of your state, doofus.

The TC EXURBS are the most Republican part of my state, doofus.

The Burbs are blue and getting bluer. Only major TC suburb to vote for Romney was Maple Grove. 10 others voted Obama. Look at our legislature. The troglodytes are dying...

[5280]

Dude, Minnesota's suburbs are not trending right.

We have like two GOP members who is in the suburbs. There used to be a lot more.

Twin Cities suburbanites are among the richest and best-educated in the country, you think they are attracted to the knuckle-dragging hillbillies from the south?

The "new" GOP has utterly repulsed Minnesotans.

Who the hell gives a sh**t? That doesn't make them godlike or better than other people.

[pbrower2a]

One Republican objective is the evisceration of labor unions so that America can become a cheap-labor country... and that labor unions lack the means of influencing politics. Republicans have practically destroyed all influence of labor unions in Southern politics except in local politics, and the Republican majorities in State Houses in Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, and Wisconsin seek to establish the basic rule that workers lose collective bargaining. 

Democrats have been ineffective in winning back state legislatures in 2012 and 2014... and if they don't do so in 2016 they might be shut out of statewide contention for the Presidency beginning in 2024 onward in those four states.     

[Nichlemn]

Mathematically speaking, every trend (Atlas trend/PVI) has to be exactly matched by trends going other way. If half the country trends 2 points Democratic, then the other half must necessarily have a 2 point Republican trend. This is true even if the state is swinging Democratic but at a smaller rate than the rest of the country. It is relevant for EC purposes though - if PA stays still in a country that is consistently Democratic leaning, the conditions that will allow Republicans to occasionally win will be ones in which PA votes Republican.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Having a lot of white people helps.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Probably will take what the Bush campaign did in 2000.  Karl Rove has said that he targeted West Virginia for Bush early on, believing that their social conservatism and Democrats' perceived hostility to coal would help them carry the state.  He mentioned that they would already be putting money into Ohio and Pennsylvania, while buying ads, etc. in the rest of WV would be relatively cheap.  The same is true for the other Southern states that Clinton carried.

Honestly, I think the GOP might have a good shot at trying to flip Maine under the right circumstances.  Although it's a far more liberal state than West Virginia (especially on social issues), the rural areas are more conservative than the state as a whole, and it's nowhere near as "blue" in presidential politics as most of New England.  Maine Republicans had an excellent election in 2010, and in any given presidential year, the GOP will be putting resources into New Hampshire anyway.  Reaching the rest of the state shouldn't be too expensive, but of course, carrying the state would be much easier with a more moderate candidate.

[All Along The Watchtower]

Having a lot of white people helps.

As does having a political culture that is hostile to organized labor and to social spending, in general.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We'll see when it comes to Ohio. The GOP needs OH, just as much as Dems need Colo. But, the convention selection tells you alot what each party is thinking. Since the GOP selected Ohio and Dems selected Pa.

But, Ohio as well as CO will continue be tipping pt states along with Va.