Reapportionment by CVAP?

[Skill and Chance]

I understand that the "counting the whole number of persons in each State" language in the 14th Amendment likely renders this moot, but if Evenwel v. Abbott ended up influencing apportionment, what would a CVAP-based electoral college map look like this decade?

I have read that CA would lose 6 seats and TX would lose 4.  Presumably Nevada (non-citizens), Arizona (non-citizens) and Utah (children) would all be at great risk of losing a seat.  Colorado probably wouldn't lose one, but would no longer be in line to gain in 2020.  Florida and New York may also be at risk.  Would any of the Southern states will strict felon disenfranchisement lose seats?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Here for you!

The map is based on the American Community Survey 2008-2012 estimates. It has a large margin of error, but the general picture is pretty clear.

Well, the Midwest would be quite fond of this change.

[Skill and Chance]

So 2012 would still be 332/206 Obama on that map.  But the famous "272 firewall!" would no longer work and a Democrat would need VA to win in a tied PV.  Was not expecting GA to lose one and AZ and FL to come out unscathed (although in retrospect, I should have known Puerto Ricans and the overwhelming majority of Cubans are citizens).  It's also surprising to me how little children seem to matter.

This reform would probably put pressure on Democrats to be more populist.  I am unsure how it would impact Republicans.

[Skill and Chance]

Actually, it looks like Florida and Texas lose 1 more, which go to Indiana and Massachusetts, in addition to all of the changes you noted except Illinois does not gain: http://themonkeycage.org/2013/03/21/what-if-the-supreme-court-eliminated-noncitizen-representation/

So this would be a CVAP 2012:

This is actually still 271D/267R:

And this is still 270D/268R:

It has a surprisingly even partisan impact, with both CA and TX being hit so hard.