What will be the Next Big 3 Swing States?

[Free Bird]

Virginia and Ohio are drifting towards being reliable D and R territory, respectively, with Ohio at a slower pace. So, which states will join Florida in being the next Holy Trifecta of swing states? My money is on Pennsylvania and Colorado. Both will soon be like Ohio, in that you wouldn't be labeled insane if you said that they could go either way. Nowadays you get some funny looks for saying that about Pennsylvana.

[bobloblaw]

Virginia and Ohio are drifting towards being reliable D and R territory, respectively, with Ohio at a slower pace. So, which states will join Florida in being the next Holy Trifecta of swing states? My money is on Pennsylvania and Colorado. Both will soon be like Ohio, in that you wouldn't be labeled insane if you said that they could go either way. Nowadays you get some funny looks for saying that about Pennsylvana.

OH isnt reliably R. The D's there just had a bad year.

WI has been trending GOP....seems like forever.

[Free Bird]

Virginia and Ohio are drifting towards being reliable D and R territory, respectively, with Ohio at a slower pace. So, which states will join Florida in being the next Holy Trifecta of swing states? My money is on Pennsylvania and Colorado. Both will soon be like Ohio, in that you wouldn't be labeled insane if you said that they could go either way. Nowadays you get some funny looks for saying that about Pennsylvana.

OH isnt reliably R. The D's there just had a bad year.

WI has been trending GOP....seems like forever.

I said it will be EVENTUALLY. The trend of Republicanism with blue collar workers and outward migration will make it so, along with more of the Midwest due to the GOP being forced to adopt looser social policies if it wants to survive.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

The biggest thing that hindered Republicans in OH was his drop in African American support. OH used to sport a rather significan Republican performance amongst the group amounting to 16% in 2004, making the difference for dubya. That decline has weakened their numbers Cincinnatti and Colombus.

The Republicans need to restore their numbers amongst that group back into the teens where it was. The Colombus area has also trended heavily Democratic. A good example is the old district that Kasich held in the 1980's and 1990's. It was won by a Democrat in 1980 because of a scandal and Kasich won it in Dem year 1982, and held it by landslides as did Pat Tiberi after him. Obama won the district if I recall and black turnout made Pat Tiberi sweat quite a lot after 2008, that is until Kasich became Governor and the GOP drew the Democrats a vote sink in Colombus.

[Del Tachi]

Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania

[TNF]

Michigan, Ohio, and Wisconsin

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Minnesota

[DS0816]

In alphabetical order:

Arizona
Georgia
Texas

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ohio is moving in a GOP direction; unfortunately.

Nevertheless; Dems have Pa, CO and NV

[DS0816]

Ohio is moving in a GOP direction; unfortunately.

Nevertheless; Dems have Pa, CO and NV

Actually, Ohio isn't moving in generally a Republican direction. I don't know where you have dreamed that up. But, perhaps you didn't take a look at the 2008/2012 maps and specifically Hamilton County (Cincinnati).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Try 2014; where Kasich won. Portman won too.


State Dems did bad out of Mi; WI and IL

[DS0816]

Try 2014; where Kasich won. Portman won too.


State Dems did bad out of Mi; WI and IL

Midterm elections are not comparable to presidential elections. The participating numbers of voters are not on the same level … if you get 57 percent voting in a presidential election and 37 percent voting in a midterm election, that's not only a 20-percent decline but it is also means that there was about a 35-percent (that's 37 divided by 57 percent) rate of voters who do/did participated in voting in a presidential election but refrained from doing that in a midterm election.

[windjammer]

Ohio
Nevada
Colorado

[/]

Try 2014; where Kasich won. Portman won too.


State Dems did bad out of Mi; WI and IL

The Republicans only did good in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Illinois in 2014 because it was 2014.

[/]

Silly gooses! As 2016 approaches, the nation will probably start trending left again, most likely due to changes in demographics, the Democrats' ability to attract young voters, and the general swing every election (2014 was red, 2012 was blue, 2010 was red, 2008 was blue, etc.)

I doubt the GOP will ever have that much of a chance in Pennsylvania (minority population growth in the big cities & a lack of elastic voters help the Democrats)... Nevada and New Hampshire will also probably become safe for the Democrats soon as well. I also see VA and OH currently trending left, though this will take much longer and the Republicans still have a chance in these two states (as well as FL, obviously). Considering Colorado is a poor fit for Hillary and there are a lot of urban voters there, CO will probably remain a swing state for the time being.

Meanwhile, I can see Georgia and Arizona become swing states due to changes in demographics, and NC will probably retain its swing state status as time goes by. MO and NE-02 are also potentially competitive.

So here we go:

State Trends in 2012/2016/2020 -

Top Three Swing States - FL, OH, NC

State Trends in 2024/2028 -

Top Three Swing States - NC, GA, FL

[VPH]

Florida, Georgia, Arizona

Increasing Hispanic populations will turn these into 2020 swing states. If we're talking 2016, I say Florida, Colorado, and North Carolina.

[DS0816]

People should be noting that the duo Indiana/Missouri may be on a pattern of voting alike just as Colorado/Virginia started in 1996. (That was when Bob Dole, the losing Republican challenger, flipped Colorado and held Virginia into his party's column. They both flipped Democratic in 2008 for Barack Obama.) I'm referring to margin spreads. Over the elections of 2008 and 2012, Indiana/Missouri boasted a margins spread no greater than 1.16 percent. In 2008, when they officially carried differently (Missouri as a narrow Republican hold at 0.13 percent; Indiana as a narrow Democratic pickup at 1.03 percent), they were 1.16 percent in spread. In 2012 (when Missouri held in the Republican column and Indiana became a Republican pickup), the margin spread between both was 0.84 percent. Those two election cycles averaged a spread of just 1.00 percent. The 1996 to 2012 results of Colorado/Virginia have boasted a margins spread of 0.58 + 0.33 + 3.53 + 2.65 + 1.48. That is: 8.57 divided by 5 (election cycles) = 1.71 average spread.

[Mr. Illini]

This is possible within the next several cycles:

Ohio leand R, Virginia leans D, New Mexico and Nevada are solidified. The upper Midwest trends R as deunionization/manufacturing depletion occurs and blue collar workers go that way. Wisconsin and Iowa are toss ups. NC and GA go the way they've been trending with NC being a toss up and GA being only lean R. Arizona follows its neighbors and sees a quick D trend, downgraded to lean R. Florida remains a toss up.

Pennsylvania is fools gold because while you see the R trend among blue collar workers in WPA (like you see in Ohio), Eastern PA is trending Democrat as it becomes more like its east coast neighbors. The Philly burbs up through Scranton is a populated area that really is swinging D.

This one several more cycles further, say maybe 2028/32:

Colorado continues to push D as its population becomes increasingly young and also Hispanic. Arizona is a full swing state at this point. In the Midwest, Ohio has made the transition to an R state now, and Iowa to an extent as well. Wisconsin and Minnesota are swing states. Virginia is now solid and North Carolina is leaning D as well. Georgia is a swing state now. Florida is still a swing state.

So, down the line I foresee Arizona as a big swing state, Florida remains a swing state, we get one or two from the upper Midwest, and then possibly Georgia as well.

There probably will not be as many as I have predicted, but that is depending on the exact magnitude of the demographic/cultural changes, which is impossible for me to predict.

[pbrower2a]

PPP gives us insight on how Ohio will go in polling announced this week, the second week of June.

[Ebsy]

Why do people think Minnesota is going to trend Republican? It and Michigan have basically been solidly Democratic at the national level for many cycles, and haven't gotten noticeably closer.

[DS0816]

Why do people think Minnesota is going to trend Republican? It and Michigan have basically been solidly Democratic at the national level for many cycles, and haven't gotten noticeably closer.

The Republican forum members are the ones thinking/wishing it.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Why do people think Minnesota is going to trend Republican? It and Michigan have basically been solidly Democratic at the national level for many cycles, and haven't gotten noticeably closer.

The Republican forum members are the ones thinking/wishing it.

Then what states do you think will trend Republican to counteract this forum's alleged truths that VA will soon become safe D, NC will be a tossup soon, GA will soon be competitive, etc.?  The Democrats aren't just going to start winning every election...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Why do people think Minnesota is going to trend Republican? It and Michigan have basically been solidly Democratic at the national level for many cycles, and haven't gotten noticeably closer.

The Republican forum members are the ones thinking/wishing it.

Then what states do you think will trend Republican to counteract this forum's alleged truths that VA will soon become safe D, NC will be a tossup soon, GA will soon be competitive, etc.?  The Democrats aren't just going to start winning every election...

Nothing stopping them. Dominant party systems aren't too rare. Maybe the Democrats are destined to be the American equivalents of in the Institutional Revolutionary Party or the Japanese LDP?

[/]

Why do people think Minnesota is going to trend Republican? It and Michigan have basically been solidly Democratic at the national level for many cycles, and haven't gotten noticeably closer.

The Republican forum members are the ones thinking/wishing it.

Then what states do you think will trend Republican to counteract this forum's alleged truths that VA will soon become safe D, NC will be a tossup soon, GA will soon be competitive, etc.?  The Democrats aren't just going to start winning every election...

Yes we are.

[okierepublican]

Why do people think Minnesota is going to trend Republican? It and Michigan have basically been solidly Democratic at the national level for many cycles, and haven't gotten noticeably closer.

The Republican forum members are the ones thinking/wishing it.

Then what states do you think will trend Republican to counteract this forum's alleged truths that VA will soon become safe D, NC will be a tossup soon, GA will soon be competitive, etc.?  The Democrats aren't just going to start winning every election...

Yes we are.

And I'm going to date Kate upton. Those things have the same probability of happening. Sometimes democrats get caught up in demographics destiny and don't stay in the real world. If the demographics become favored to the democrats then the GOP will change so they can enough of those votes to vote republican.