Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 12:51:44 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: afleitch, Hash)
  Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016
« previous next »
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5
Author Topic: Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016  (Read 18333 times)
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,306
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: May 28, 2015, 09:56:48 AM »

Thread for the contest to replace Boris Johnson (not running for a third term and of course now an MP).

Labour candidates for their nomination are courting supporters ATM. Also, a certain George Galloway has failed to get the repeated hints and is running.
Logged
Clyde1998
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,936
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: May 28, 2015, 11:15:03 AM »

Thread for the contest to replace Boris Johnson (not running for a third term and of course now an MP).

Labour candidates for their nomination are courting supporters ATM. Also, a certain George Galloway has failed to get the repeated hints and is running.
Logged
Harry Hayfield
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,975
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: May 28, 2015, 04:25:14 PM »

Constituency Votes
Labour 933,398 (42%) winning 8 seats
Conservatives 722,280 (33%) winning 6 seats
Liberal Democrats 193,842 (9%) winning 0 seats
Green Party 188,623 (9%) winning 0 seats
United Kingdom Independence Party 95,849 (4%) winning 0 seats
British National Party 30,744 (1%) winning 0 seats
Other Parties 42,901 (2%) winning 0 seats

Regional List Vote (notionals)
Due to a mess up in the UKIP camp, several UKIP regional list and constituency candidates were nominated as "A Fresh Choice for London: UKIP". To ensure that changes are accurate all Fresh Choice / UKIP candidates have been counted as UKIP

Labour 3 regional list AM's
Conservatives 3 regional list AM's
Liberal Democrats 2 regional list AM's
Green Party 1 regional list AM
United Kingdom Independence Party 1 regional list AM

Totals: Labour 11, Conservatives 9, Green Party 2, Liberal Democrats 2, UKIP 1
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,192
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: May 28, 2015, 04:43:05 PM »

Hang on Harry, the kippers didn't get any seats last round, due to the unfortunate blunder of forgetting their own name (lmao). Where are you getting that info?

As always the Mayoral elections will be done via the hilariously awful 'supplementary vote', which is like an attempt to do a Two round system without the expense of run-offs / do IRV while not trusting the public to count higher than '2'.
Logged
Harry Hayfield
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,975
United Kingdom


Political Matrix
E: -2.58, S: 0.35

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: May 28, 2015, 05:00:29 PM »

Hang on Harry, the kippers didn't get any seats last round, due to the unfortunate blunder of forgetting their own name (lmao). Where are you getting that info?

As always the Mayoral elections will be done via the hilariously awful 'supplementary vote', which is like an attempt to do a Two round system without the expense of run-offs / do IRV while not trusting the public to count higher than '2'.

Simply by adding UKIP / Fresh Choice and UKIP on the regional list (after all they were votes cast for UKIP)
Logged
Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese
JOHN91043353
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,570
Sweden


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: May 28, 2015, 08:03:01 PM »

The Tory bench for the mayoral election does really seem awfully weak. Labour should be favoured simply for that reason. Is there anyone that the Conservatives could recruit who could rival Sadiq Kahn, and David Lammy in rank?
Logged
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,306
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: May 29, 2015, 08:11:45 AM »

Not that I can think of. The best guy they've got is already in post and not running again.
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: May 29, 2015, 09:18:47 AM »

Seb Coe would be their best bet but he doesn't seem to be interested.
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: June 24, 2015, 04:27:38 PM »

Zac Goldsmith is seeking the Tory nomination. Just watched a couple of speeches and interviews of him on YouTube (having barely heard his voice before, despite hearing his name a lot); he doesn't match Boris in the charisma stakes.
Logged
doktorb
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,072
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: June 26, 2015, 07:00:22 AM »

Lembit Öpik would like to be considered for the LibDem nomination. Oh what a pity that the shortlist has already been confirmed....
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,816
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: June 26, 2015, 09:28:17 AM »

Goldsmith is the best the tories can do-young, media tested, liberal and big on the whole 'direct democracy' bollocks. I'd love them to pick Sol Campbell.

Either way, labour seem to be playing it safe with Sadiq or Tessa, hoping to get the base out and get through. Labour have always been crap at mayoral elections-despite the fact london should be their equivalent of Chicago 
Logged
Silent Hunter
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,306
United Kingdom


WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: June 26, 2015, 11:33:34 AM »

Goldsmith is the best the tories can do-young, media tested, liberal and big on the whole 'direct democracy' bollocks. I'd love them to pick Sol Campbell.

Either way, labour seem to be playing it safe with Sadiq or Tessa, hoping to get the base out and get through. Labour have always been crap at mayoral elections-despite the fact london should be their equivalent of Chicago 

It may have been like that back when it was just the London County Council, but the outer suburbs are a lot more Tory.
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: September 10, 2015, 01:08:32 PM »

A decent time to bump this.

Mixed signals and rumours about who has won the Labour nomination but the consensus is that it is (unsurprisingly) between Khan and Jowell. Result tomorrow at around midday.
Logged
DavidB.
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 13,612
Israel


Political Matrix
E: 0.58, S: 4.26


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2015, 01:22:32 PM »

How much of a role does Khan's ethnicity/background play for people/in the campaign? When Ahmed Aboutaleb became mayor of Rotterdam, him being a Moroccan and a Muslim was a big deal for people and in the media. Most people were positive about it, seeing it as a sign of progress. (The big difference with London being that Dutch mayors aren't elected, they are appointed).

I would expect it to be less relevant for people in London, however, since the UK's relation/history with multiculturalism is a somewhat easier one than the Netherlands'.
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,192
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2015, 01:25:28 PM »

London ethnic politics is always an intrigue. Khan himself hired a Hindu outreach guy for his team, although he kind of overshot as he literally hired one of Modi's biggest British based hacks.
Logged
Filuwaúrdjan
Realpolitik
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 67,609
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: September 10, 2015, 02:55:33 PM »

The thing to note about Khan is that he's not a typical minority machine politician who landed a safe seat in which many members of his community are Party members.
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2015, 05:38:55 AM »

The announcement has been delayed to account for the Evening Standard.
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2015, 06:18:00 AM »

Lisa Markwell, editor of the The Independent on Sunday, has just tweeted: "Surprise result coming"
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2015, 06:24:42 AM »

George Eaton, political editor of the New Statesman, tweets: "I'm hearing that Sadiq Khan has won Labour's London mayoral nomination."
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: September 11, 2015, 06:36:25 AM »

Khan wins, 58.9% to 41.1% over Jowell in the final round. Full results later I'm sure.
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,816
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: September 11, 2015, 07:05:57 AM »

I thought that Tessa would win on 1st ballot, but Sadiq beat her by 6,000 voters. Looking at data interesting thing is that Tessa picked up only 11% from other candidates but Sadiq got 21%. Basically there was a 'Stop Blairite Jowell' type voting done by lots of centre left/left wing people
Logged
🦀🎂🦀🎂
CrabCake
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 19,192
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2015, 07:34:51 AM »

YES

The numbers:
First round:
Tessa Jowell 26,121 (29.7%)
Sadiq Khan 32, 926 (37.5%)
Diane Abbott 14,798 (16.8%),
David Lammy 8,255 (9.4%)
Christian Wolmar 4,729 (5.4%)
Gareth Thomas 1,055 (1.2%)

Second round:
Tessa Jowell 26,406 (30.1%)
Sadiq Khan 33, 141 (37.8%)
Diane Abbott 14, 891 (17%)
David Lammy 8, 392 (9.6%)
Christian Wolmar 4, 927 (5.6%)

Third round:
Tessa Jowell 27,272 (31.3%)
Sadiq Khan 34, 813 (40%)
Diane Abbott 15,878 (18.2%)
David Lammy 9,147 (10.5%)

Fourth round:
Tessa Jowell 29, 785 (34.6%)
Sadiq Khan 38, 440 (44.7%)
Diane Abbott 17, 784 (20.7%)

Fifth round:
Tessa Jowell 33, 573 (41.1%)
Sadiq Khan 48,152 (58.95)

Wolmar did fairly well. I like him (he was running the campaign I imagine traininthedistance would run if he was a politician), but I thought he'd be in the negligible numbers. Lammy under performed IMO.
Logged
Phony Moderate
Obamaisdabest
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,298
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2015, 08:41:56 AM »

"Only 9,825 votes cast by members of affiliated unions in Labour's London Mayoral ballot, vs nearly 51,768 members and 26,291 'supporters'."
Logged
Blair
Blair2015
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,816
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: September 11, 2015, 09:00:18 AM »

This shows that unions can't deliver voters anymore-just funding and organisation
Logged
joevsimp
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 482


Political Matrix
E: -5.95, S: -4.00

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #24 on: September 11, 2015, 09:14:27 AM »

But how many of those 51k Labour full members are also members of affiliated unions, and therefore not signed up as affiliated supporters?

Tbf, its good that they no longer have two votes in contests like this
Logged
Pages: [1] 2 3 4 5  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.046 seconds with 11 queries.