Greater London Assembly and Mayor elections - 5 May 2016

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well turnout from affiliates has often been pretty low and now (yes) party members are no longer allowed to vote as affiliates.

And just LOL Gareth Thomas.

[joevsimp]

Well turnout from affiliates has often been pretty low and now (yes) party members are no longer allowed to vote as affiliates.

And just LOL Gareth Thomas.

Yeah, not entirely sure what the point of his campaign was, is a Woolmer didn't do better as I really liked what he was saying, but he doesn't seem typical Labour candidate material. I'm surprised Abbot did as well as she did.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Sign on the times on the latter point I think.

[Blair]

Heard sources complaining that Tessa won on every round with members except the last one.... it seems the Blairite win haven't learnt the lessons from 2010 that Labour leaderships favour centre left candidates who are inoffensive-hence why Cooper was favourite in may, and why Khan had managed to do well. Lammy/Abbott/Woolmar voters were always likely to give him a 2nd or 3rd whilst Tessa was more 'marmite' 

[Silent Hunter]

The bookies odds on Zac Goldsmith, the likely Tory candidate, becoming the next Mayor have shortened after this - he was beating Khan easily in most of the hypothetical match-up polls.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A vague and entirely uninformed prediction that will doubtless look stupid soon enough: Corbyn wins in the first round (i.e. and therefore by a lot overall) or narrowly loses. The result is described as 'sensational' and 'trouble' is predicted for Labour either way.

Heard sources complaining that Tessa won on every round with members except the last one....

Which as a complaint makes literally zero sense. She lost in all sections. I could understand annoyance if she had only lost because of the Registered Supporters (though will note again exactly which part of the Party is responsible for that brilliant idea).

[Blair]

A vague and entirely uninformed prediction that will doubtless look stupid soon enough: Corbyn wins in the first round (i.e. and therefore by a lot overall) or narrowly loses. The result is described as 'sensational' and 'trouble' is predicted for Labour either way.

Heard sources complaining that Tessa won on every round with members except the last one....

Which as a complaint makes literally zero sense. She lost in all sections. I could understand annoyance if she had only lost because of the Registered Supporters (though will note again exactly which part of the Party is responsible for that brilliant idea).

Yeah Jowell was suppose to have a massive lead in the first round

[joevsimp]

its up on the london labour website now, Jowell was about 2,000 votes ahead just on members, but Khan was 2,000 ahead on affiliates and 7,000 ahead on registered supporters.

Khan picked up transfers from members throughout though and finished less than 900 votes ahead of Jowell

http://www.labourinlondon.org.uk/just_announced_sadiq_khan_is_the_labour_candidate_for_mayor_of_london_in_2016

[Silent Hunter]

Well at least most Jowell supporters can accept a Khan candidacy.

[Blair]

Well at least most Jowell supporters can accept a Khan candidacy.

Having vote for Jowell I'm more than happy with Khan-he was 3rd on my preference and he's got a good background for the race

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

UKIP have chosen their candidate, culture spokesperson Peter Whittle. It's a snub to better known Deputy Leader Suzanne Evans (but Evans and Farage had a bit of a tiff earlier this year, as you may recall).

Also Mike Read has been chosen to be on the Assembly lost. Where's the "vomiting" emote?

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Zac Goldsmith won for the Tories. It seems the full slate is coming together. One of the key things you'll see reading about candidates is the word "lobby". That's because the Mayor lacks authority to raise money or legislate. His or her main power, it seems, is to annoy the Chancellor into giving London cash.

Conservative Party - Zac Goldsmith is perhaps the epitome of the phrase economic and social liberal. A soft eurosceptic (you may recall his father's history with the EU) of aristocratic background (he is literally married to a Rothschild), Goldsmith largely follows the London consensus (diverse, socially liberal, high investment in public transport, business friendly). As former editor for the Ecologist he may dare himself to go further than BoJo (who was constrained by his national ambitions - being seen as anti-private motor would not go down well in the grassroots) on green issues: more investment in bikes, urban pedestrianisation, opposing new airports or expansions of existing ones, expand or raise the congestion charge, ultra low emissions zones, a step up on the electrification of buses etc. On the other one hand, he will probably clamp down on strike action - probably a very populist move, as the RMT Union is fairly controversial in the capital. In terms of housing, he seems to advocate for limited rent control coupled with an expansion of high-rises - 50,000 new homes, he promises.

Labour - Sadiq Khan, the surprise winner of the Labour nomination, is a soft-left Muslim who grew up in a council estate as the son of a Pakistani immigrant. Very different background as you might see. His main issue is affordability - a "living rent", 50% of new houses being "affordable" and a freeze of ticket fares on buses and the Underground. He has had to be bullish on the environment to outmanoeuvre Goldsmith, opposing the expansion of Heathrow, wanting a million trees to be planted, expanding ultra low emission zones to the whole of Zones 1, 2 and along primary commuter roots, pedestrianising Oxford Street. One issue he'll have, (I don't think the Muslim issue will come up - London's most relevant paper the Standard can be nasty, but not in that way) will possibly be unions. Like in a lot of cities, technology like Uber and driverless vehicles are slowly encroaching on well-paid jobs that threaten to drive more working-class people out of decent incomes.

The joke parties. (London's surreally bad voting system means junk, so they don't matter, but the major parties do want to harvest second preferences)

Lib Dems - Caroline Pidgeon, the leader of the Ld group in the London Assembly, was elected by default because nobody else made the ballot. The Lib Dems must be alarmed that the Tories basically nominated one of them, but they will soldier on; probably in hope of an extra seat in the Assembly or at least avoid being third. I don't know how many Pidgeon/pigeon puns will be made throughout the campaign, but it'll probably be too much.

Greens - Sian Berry, the previous nominee. Longtime activist against urban 4x4's, Lockheed Martin, inefficient boilers etc. She attributes her political awakening to when she quit her job in Big Pharma in disgust. Apparently leader Natalie Bennet was musing about standing, only to have her procrastination interrupted by spiritual leader Caroline Lucas endorsing Berry?

UKIP - who cares. Ukip's main ambition is to get two seats. They may get a decent protest vote - neither majors are great matches for what kippers exist in London (despite goldsmith's father). They will hope to avoid the embarrassment of last time, when they forgot to put their name on their ballot. (Incidentally as I said earlier, UKIP, like greens, snubbed a higher-up figure by endorsing a relative nobody.

The George Galloway Fun Party - Galloway himself. Promising to reform the Metropolitain Police, crack down on white-collar crime (something he wouldn't have authority to do) and seize vacant properties for affordable housing, he basically wants to run to have more chance to look like a dick on a world stage. Will get decent results in Bengali areas, probably.

The BNP aren't running, but Britain First member and former BNP stooge Paul Golding will run. The very curious "multicultural far-right" (?!!!!) party the National Liberals will be running an uber driver. A Lindsey Garret is running for some generic radical centre group called Something New (ugh). There are a few independents, including someone who wants to ban all private cars, the polish prince who wanted to fight Farage and Siobhan Benita, a former civil servant. Sandi Toskvig said she might run but I presume she was joking.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Morrissey is musing about running for the Animal Welfare Party (we really should rename the mayor as 'egotist in chief')

[Kingpoleon]

Lammy would have made this a great election. Did anyone on here support him for first or second preference?


That said, ENDORSING: 1. Goldsmith 2. Pidgeon.

[cp]

Latest YouGov poll:

If there were an election tomorrow for Mayor of London, how would you vote?

Sadiq Khan: 31
Zac Goldsmith: 20
Peter Whittle (UKIP): 5
Caroline Podgeon (LD): 4
Sian Berry (Greens): 4
Don't know: 25
Wouldn't vote: 8

First preferences:

Sadiq Khan: 48
Zac Goldsmith: 32

Second preferences:

Sadiq Khan: 60
Zac Goldsmith: 40


Pretty much all good news for Labour. At this point in 2012/2008/2004 the eventual winner was ahead, and not by this much.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Goldsmith's vile campaign appears to be backfiring then. Good.

[Vega]

Given how much they're ahead, they could have afforded to pick Ken Livingstone!

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Well no because then we would be behind.

[cp]

New Survation Poll

Virtually identical to the YouGov from last week.

First preferences:

Sadiq Khan: 49
Zac Goldsmith: 34
Peter Whittle (UKIP): 5
Caroline Podgeon (LD): 3
Sian Berry (Greens): 3


Second preferences:

Sadiq Khan: 60
Zac Goldsmith: 40

[cp]

Today's the big day.Last poll out showed:

First Preference:

Sadiq Khan: 35
Zac Goldsmith: 26
Peter Whittle (UKIP): 4
Caroline Podgeon (LD): 4
Sian Berry (Greens): 4

Second Preference:

Sadiq Khan: 57 (-3)
Zac Goldsmith: 43 (+3)

If you can be bothered to read the report and sift through its dreadfully rendered tables, there's some great breakdowns of the numbers. In a nutshell, Khan is winning with everyone under 50 and in central London. Goldsmith has the senior vote but is only fighting Khan to a draw in outer London.

*crossing fingers this holds out and we get a good night for once*

[joevsimp]

If you can be bothered to read the report and sift through its dreadfully rendered tables, there's some great breakdowns of the numbers. In a nutshell, Khan is winning with everyone under 50 and in central London. Goldsmith has the senior vote but is only fighting Khan to a draw in outer London.

*crossing fingers this holds out and we get a good night for once*

I was about to say "well duh" until I got to the bold bit, will be interesting to see which assembly constituencies Labour manage to hold and which outer Boroughs Kahn leads in

[YL]

There seems to be some almighty mess up with the electoral register in Barnet.

[joevsimp]

There seems to be some almighty mess up with the electoral register in Barnet.

so labour seem to blaming the fact that Barnet have outsourced everything that's not nailed down, if its very close could be grounds for a challenge to the results, and if its a close win for Labour then you-know-what will be brought into play

sounds like a lot of headaches

[cp]

There seems to be some almighty mess up with the electoral register in Barnet.

so labour seem to blaming the fact that Barnet have outsourced everything that's not nailed down, if its very close could be grounds for a challenge to the results, and if its a close win for Labour then you-know-what will be brought into play

sounds like a lot of headaches

For those of us that don't know what, could you elaborate?

[joevsimp]

A week of news coverage of the Labour party being riddled with antisemites ends with thousands of voters in the most Jewish part of the country being turned away from polling stations and a narrow victory for the Labour candidate. I'd expect a challenge to the results of Kahn wins by anything less than 10,000 votes